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Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

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Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#131

Post by blurbleblurble »

ThrowawayIP wrote: post #16
multiplegeorges wrote: post #2

Not much of a surprise. Government action has been anemic at best. Industry action (overall) has been net negative. The only hope now is exponential growth of (solar and wind)+batteries making other sources uneconomic. This seems to be slowly happening, so I hope we hit the exponential curve soon and we're there quicker than we expect. This only stops it. Then, to fix it, we'll need a massive Direct Air Capture indus…

The technology-will-save-us mentality is part of the reason we are here. We live in a society that doesn't do anything unless it makes money for some set of decrepit old men. We had the means to avoid this (strict vegan diets, ground based mass transit, dense development & re-wilding, energy transition) but people made money doing the opposite. And more people made money sabotaging solar+battery pricing in the US. So…

> strict vegan diets

sabotage achieved

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#132

Post by boredtofears »

WarmWash wrote: post #23
zhann_dc wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, truth be told.. It _is_ nothing compared to Big Oil.

Spoiler: It's individuals who are driving that demand. The impact of the decisions of big oil are nothing compared to the collective decisions of individuals. Big oil isn't going to kick down your door when you buy an EV and switch to solar. There is no rancher in the grocery aisle slipping steaks in your cart.

Yes they are, in the form of lobbying to remove subsidies and adding tax penalties to EV/solar purchases.

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#133

Post by reilly3000 »

m00dy wrote: post #124
radu_floricica wrote: post #113

I'm mostly stopped feeling autistic since adolescence, but climate change is one of those times. It's obviously real, and it's also obvious that shuffling chairs in developing countries is rounding to zero effect. We're converting to cleaner energy anyways because of pollution and better economics, so the push for decarbonization in itself is... what do you call a rounding error when it's already rounding to zero? An…

Can you explain what 'Luddite' means in a broader context? Not all of us grew up learning British history :)

Luddite: someone who is against using technology out of fear (of economic opportunities mostly)

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#134

Post by tito »

p-e-w wrote: post #80
amazingamazing wrote: post #41

When will the rich, say top 10% of planet decrease their emissions?

The top 10% of the planet aren’t “the rich”, what a gross and incendiary misuse of the term.

The top 10% richest humans emit about half of all emissions.

Decile 10 (richest): ~48%

Decile 9: ~15%

Decile 8: ~10%

Decile 7: ~8%

Decile 6: ~6%

Deciles 1 through 5 combined: ~12%, so about 1 to 3% each

Sources like this: www.oxfam.org.uk/media/press-releases/richest-1-emit-as-much-planet-heating-pollution-as-two-thirds-of-humanity-oxfam/

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#135

Post by [deleted] »

m00dy wrote: post #124
radu_floricica wrote: post #113

I'm mostly stopped feeling autistic since adolescence, but climate change is one of those times. It's obviously real, and it's also obvious that shuffling chairs in developing countries is rounding to zero effect. We're converting to cleaner energy anyways because of pollution and better economics, so the push for decarbonization in itself is... what do you call a rounding error when it's already rounding to zero? An…

Can you explain what 'Luddite' means in a broader context? Not all of us grew up learning British history :)

[deleted]

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#136

Post by tito »

cbg0 wrote: post #84
amazingamazing wrote: post #41

When will the rich, say top 10% of planet decrease their emissions?

How exactly would that make a dent? CO2 sources: - Electricity + heat production ~40–42% - Industry + manufacturing ~20–22% - Road transport ~12–13% - Deforestation & land-use change ~10% - Direct fuel use in buildings ~5–6% - Aviation ~2–3% - Shipping ~2–3% - Rail, pipelines & other transport ~1% - Flaring / other energy & industrial sources ~2–4% I'm guessing the private jets is what you're hinting at? Aviation abo…

The top 10% richest humans emit about half of all emissions.

Decile 10 (richest): ~48%

Decile 9: ~15%

Decile 8: ~10%

Decile 7: ~8%

Decile 6: ~6%

Deciles 1 through 5 combined: ~12%, so about 1 to 3% each

I wouldn't necessarily focus on it, but it's something good for your mental model of how to solve the challenge.

The reason I say I wouldn't focus on it is I'm coming around to the idea that "carbon footprint" is effectively a marketing campaign brought on by oil companies to have us focus our individual power where it has the lowest leverage - sorting trash, our own individual emissions, etc, Instead of mobilizing hundreds, thousands, millions, and billions of people to change policy and technology.

Sources like this: www.oxfam.org.uk/media/press-releases/richest-1-emit-as-much-planet-heating-pollution-as-two-thirds-of-humanity-oxfam/

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#137

Post by hypfer »

From my understanding, the West never truly committed to that goal. It just said so as a PR thing, so that the much more affected countries quiet down, because "hey hey we said 1.5°". "Oops, sorry, we tried".

The West knows that it will manage even with more than that, but it also knows that not everyone will.

Jury's still out on whether the neglect is just due to apathy or because it might be beneficial. Only time will tell.

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#139

Post by philipkglass »

psadri wrote: post #96
multiplegeorges wrote: post #2

Not much of a surprise. Government action has been anemic at best. Industry action (overall) has been net negative. The only hope now is exponential growth of (solar and wind)+batteries making other sources uneconomic. This seems to be slowly happening, so I hope we hit the exponential curve soon and we're there quicker than we expect. This only stops it. Then, to fix it, we'll need a massive Direct Air Capture indus…

I have been wondering: more solar means we are making Earth less reflective. Solar energy that might have been reflected back to space is now absorbed by the PV to make electricity. But that delta has to go somewhere? Where does it go in terms of Earth’s temperature. Same with more nuclear… we’d be pumping more energy into the system. Don’t take this as an argument against these technologies. It’s a huge win to not b…

Yes, this does happen. Solar farms have an albedo modification effect. The good news is that compared to fossil powered generation, the albedo modification is "paid back" in less than a year due to lower GHG emissions:

"Small reduction in land surface albedo due to solar panel expansion worldwide"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01619-w

If you download the supplementary information PDF, figure 19 shows a plot of GHG payback times by site. The most common time is about 1 month. The greatest time they found was about 9 months. These times go down as solar panel efficiencies continue to creep upward, because solar panels in 2026 don't have lower albedo than in 2024, but they do have better light-to-electricity conversion efficiency.

Re: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree limit, UN says

#140

Post by epistasis »

newyankee wrote: post #102
epistasis wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it isn't, the idea that strict vegan diets would have stoped climate change is just nonsense. Run the numbers. "Strict vegan diets" is the attitude of US activists telling the developing world that they need to change their behavior before the US activist is willing to accept driving less or adopting dense urban infill housing. "Making money" is the incentive system of society. Technology has now aligned society's…

Also while developed countries are affected , developing countries like Bangladesh, India are disproportionately affected, mostly a function of geography and a lot of history (very high population etc.). Honestly once AI becomes powerful enough most of these people will literally be leftovers with nothing left to contribute to the world with civil war precursors you see in other forms today essentially the same sympt…

I find almost nothing to agree with here.

Renewable energy will power places like Bangladesh towards far greater wealth and prosperity. Aside from the distastefulness of using the term "leftovers" on any group of people, I think its clear that India will become massively more powerful due to their education system, once its further enabled by cheap clean energy and AI.

The US is falling into civil war over stupid culture issues as India is rising. The US is dismantling its education system, its research system, to spend it on wasted defense spending (just in the past few days huge amounts of research money from the National Institutes of Health have been funneled over to DoD. Or DoW, whatever).

Additionally the US's terrible culture war is resulting in slow adoption of cheap energy, which will further lower the US's global position.

There will always be limited resources. If not one, the other. But cheap renewable energy is a great leveler and the US will be leveled far more for its refusal to lead the way with it. India will be hugely ascendant as a massive nation with coordinated, highly educated human resources. Even in the era of AI, perhaps more so, human resources are the ultimate limit on human happiness.

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