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RSA-260 Factorized

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Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shor's algorithm needs technology we still don’t have. Get back to me when we can have more than a handful of qubits reliably compute things.

We only need the ability to make make 1 qubit with indefinite reliable / fully error corrected state. Quantum interconnects would allow for these to be connected into arbitrarily large quantum computers.

So we only need to invent actual quantum computers. Got it, easy.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#32
post #23
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your 1024 bit key is only "fine" because you are a small fry, not because cryptographers think it cannot be attacked. This is falling for an xkcd 538 fallacy, btw. Nation states obviously have vast higher capability to subvert individual data than brute forcing its crypto. I stand by what I said: 1024-bit RSA keys are "fine" and will remain so. RSA-309 will not fall within our lifetime. > it's very much possible th…

That's a weirdly confident prediction. Why do you think 309 isn't going to fall in our lifetimes? "SHA2 will never be broken in our lifetimes" is something I've heard JP Aumasson say many times, but that's based on the fact that there's no line of sight anywhere to techniques that could break it. But you can't say that about 1024 bit RSA.

Everyone wants to argue crypto when my point was precisely the opposite (to wit: "Two decades after the factoring freakout, RSA is fine, go figure"), but whatever. I'll retract that when they break it. But the pace has been slowing down, not speeding up. Getting from RSA-250 to -260 was six years. That's not going to get us there before I kick it, at least.

If you want to pin me down on something slightly more formal: DRAM density scaling kinda stopped a few years back, systems aren't getting any bigger (much to Sam Altman's public dismay), and there is a superlinear matrix size requirement in factorization techniques that AFAIK no one knows how to fix. We can get the cycles to do it, but not the space.

Probably. Maybe not! But even so, it will remain cheaper to steal my secrets with the proverbial $5 wrench. RSA? It was fine.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#33
post #19
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the researchers from the RSA-250 record have publicly claimed that factoring 1024-bit RSA keys is within reach of nation states. Your 1024 bit key is only "fine" because you are a small fry, not because cryptographers think it cannot be attacked. This would be true if you used a (non-standard) RSA-768 parameterization as well, which is easier than what we are talking about on this post. It's also worth mentioning the…

> Your 1024 bit key is only "fine" because you are a small fry, not because cryptographers think it cannot be attacked. This is falling for an xkcd 538 fallacy, btw. Nation states obviously have vast higher capability to subvert individual data than brute forcing its crypto. I stand by what I said: 1024-bit RSA keys are "fine" and will remain so. RSA-309 will not fall within our lifetime. > it's very much possible th…

any cryptography can break at any time. Sometimes "sudden" breaks happen. You can't defend against these, so there (perversely) isn't that much of a point worrying about them, besides using schemes many people have thought about for a while.

Another way cryptography breaks is via iterative improvements. For example, in the last few months there are two big cryptanalytic stories

1. The novel scheme (though not standardized) HAWK had its security reduced by ~1/2 by AI. It is no longer compelling in any way. This was in a sense "predictable" though. There was a series of papers showing that HAWK-like schemes were vulnerable to an attack of this type. Then, AI was able to bridge the gap and apply these attacks directly to HAWK.

2. The ISO-standardized scheme McCliece (from ~45 years ago) has had some alarming security reductions, and may be effectively broken (it's still a little early to tell, many cryptanalytic papers require heuristics that must be justified, etc). Again, this was in a sense "predictable". Starting ~3 years ago it was discovered that McCliece had some yet-unexploited structure, and since then there have been more and more papers exploiting this further, until recently more dramatic attacks have occurred.

In both cases, there is a clear "story" you can (post-hoc) tell about the attacks. You can't always predict precisely where the attacks will end up (for the McCliece attack, it appears more effective than I would have predicted at least). But you can often tell when things are gradually weakening, before a full collapse.

RSA has a cousin (binary characteristic finite field DH) that had this gradual weakening into total collapse happen in the 2010s. It is possible this cousin was a problem child, and GNFS will remain the best attack against RSA until quantum computers fully break it. I can't predict the future. But I can say that ECC has had no such problematic cousins.

This is to say that we are blessed that we have extremely strong cryptography available. Why you would choose to use the weakest defensible option is beyond me, and not something anyone serious about security would ever recommend doing. There is no upside, and only downsides.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#35
post #23
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your 1024 bit key is only "fine" because you are a small fry, not because cryptographers think it cannot be attacked. This is falling for an xkcd 538 fallacy, btw. Nation states obviously have vast higher capability to subvert individual data than brute forcing its crypto. I stand by what I said: 1024-bit RSA keys are "fine" and will remain so. RSA-309 will not fall within our lifetime. > it's very much possible th…

That's a weirdly confident prediction. Why do you think 309 isn't going to fall in our lifetimes? "SHA2 will never be broken in our lifetimes" is something I've heard JP Aumasson say many times, but that's based on the fact that there's no line of sight anywhere to techniques that could break it. But you can't say that about 1024 bit RSA.

honestly I wouldn't be shocked if 2048 bit rsa gets factored in our lifetime. GNFS doesn't have the feel of an optimal algorithm. dropping to L(1/4) would bring 1500 bits into reach, and it seems plausible still that factoring is polynomial.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#36
post #7

It's sort of fun to remember the genuine worry in the community around RSA and the (really, really shocking at the time!) progress in factorization leading up to GNFS techniques. Like, it really looked like everything was going to fall apart. We all rushed to 1024 bit keys, and then to 2048 bit after what felt like a few months. And... maybe even that wouldn't be enough? And actual history ended up being the boring v…

but complexity is not known right? like tomorrow someone could come up with a super fast algorithm?

depending on your definition of "super fast" all forms of crypto could fall.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We only need the ability to make make 1 qubit with indefinite reliable / fully error corrected state. Quantum interconnects would allow for these to be connected into arbitrarily large quantum computers.

So we only need to invent actual quantum computers. Got it, easy.

Yes, but since R&D and funding are in a feedback loop now (promising results -> more money -> better results etc), it might only take a couple more years to get there. https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/06/amazon-quera-promise...

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#38
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RSA might be fine mathematically but as a production cryptosystem it’s an unmitigated disaster by modern standards. Compared to elliptic curves, it is comically easy to build an RSA implementation which is catastrophically broken. Both the number of and subtlety of footguns in RSA are extreme. Even ignoring that, ECC is far more efficient (in part thanks to smaller key sizes and being able to be done with fixed-width…

Assuming a given fixed key size, where does RSA need non-fixed-width arithmatic? AFAIK you can do all RSA maths with registers just double as wide as the key, no variable width anything required there. And I don't think that this is much different from ECC maths, apart from ECC's keys just being way less wide for an approximately equivalent security level.

RSA operations are performed modulo n, where n is the product of 2 primes. A 2048-bit RSA key is an n that is 2048 bits long (with the most significant bit set by definition).

There are no consumer CPUs that have 2048-bit-wide registers; even AVX10 tops out at 512 bits. Thus, mathematical operations on RSA keys are performed using arbitrary precision integer libraries like OpenSSL's own BN (BigNum) library, or GMP (the GNU Multiple Precision Arithmetic Library) as used by GNUTLS, in software.

For example, adding 1 to an arbitrary precision integer is not a CPU add or increment instruction, nor is multiplying 2 integers (or an integer and a constant factor) a CPU multiplication instruction.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We only need the ability to make make 1 qubit with indefinite reliable / fully error corrected state. Quantum interconnects would allow for these to be connected into arbitrarily large quantum computers.

So we only need to invent actual quantum computers. Got it, easy.

It's more akin to "we only need to make reliable transistors to make classical computers." With the invention of the planar transistor, going from 1 transistor to 100 or 100k was not that big of a step, comparatively.

Re: RSA-260 Factorized

#40
post #33
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your 1024 bit key is only "fine" because you are a small fry, not because cryptographers think it cannot be attacked. This is falling for an xkcd 538 fallacy, btw. Nation states obviously have vast higher capability to subvert individual data than brute forcing its crypto. I stand by what I said: 1024-bit RSA keys are "fine" and will remain so. RSA-309 will not fall within our lifetime. > it's very much possible th…

any cryptography can break at any time. Sometimes "sudden" breaks happen. You can't defend against these, so there (perversely) isn't that much of a point worrying about them, besides using schemes many people have thought about for a while. Another way cryptography breaks is via iterative improvements. For example, in the last few months there are two big cryptanalytic stories 1. The novel scheme (though not standar…

> Why you would choose to use the weakest defensible option

I still remain confused why people are interpreting this from what I wrote. I'm not "choosing" to use RSA nor advocating for its use. I'm pointing out anecdotally that I have a GnuPG keychain still live with a 1024 bit key from the last millenium (or close to that, honestly I don't know for sure) that everyone was *sure*, 20 years ago, was broken and insecure. And... it wasn't. It's fine.

The xkcd point seems profound to me: the crypto nerds were entirely wrong about their focus and sense of urgency here. Today, it's much cheaper to steal my key with simple violence. It will remain so when I'm on my death bed. Probably when my heirs are too. And I find that interesting. What else are we nerds getting wrong?

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