Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What benefits Russia would see in deciding to directly attack NATO in a way that would lack any plausible deniability. Several possible benefits. In the last months Russia has tried repeatedly to lure Nato to a response for their constant provocations. This way they can claim that Russia is being attacked by Nato and 1) have an excuse to start a massive mobilization of their reserve soldiers planned for this fall a…
Some issues I see here: - Zelensky has claimed literally every single year that Russia is planning a massive general mobilization. This has never happened nor anything at all like it. The latest claim will likely turn out as all others prior. - Russia does not have a mutual defense pact with China, nor any sort of military alliance at all. In fact China could cripple Ukraine at any moment if they so chose. 'Ukrainian…
Russia already tested playbook by doing drafts on the street in limited regions . There’s plenty of videos just Google that . Seems like their strategy will not be all nation mobilized but rather hey , we do in one region , wait , switch to another , repeat .
NATO is half dead , and that’s the main goal of Russia , north Korea , China etc . If they attack the most weak enemy eg baltic counties and claim like hitler did : we achieved what we wanted we just want piece and we are ready to strike piece also with Ukraine , it will :
Prevent any reaction from the nato , since not that many countries within nato will be willing to defend Latvia or Estonia , especially if offense will be complete and successful. Who will defend Latvia ? Germany ? Doubt , Poland ? They do not have a modern army , they still buying tanks and submarines in the age of drones . And Russia do have lots of drones . More than entire nato by a lot of, not to tell if you deduct USA and Turkey , two biggest military NATO powers that will not be eager to defend Baltic regions . Imagine also that Iran will decide to use the moment and coordinate their offensive.
As a result , this few days war can effectively formalize end of NATO and the western world as it is .