131–140 of 300 posts
Easy prediction: LLMs will get shrunk down further and further until GenAI is just something that ships on a chip as part of your hardware. In the future it will seem quaint that we needed a network connection to talk to our LLM. Adoption of open-source models to my mind is a similar step in that direction. In all cases, the goal is to become untethered from a mercurial vendor.
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I do think there are now open weight models that are on par with (or beating) Opus 4.5 by now (e.g. Kimi K3, GLM5.3). But yeah obviously the frontier closed source models seem to have pulled away once again, so open weight seems to be a few months behind right now (which might be too long to wait for a lot of people!).
Those two you mentioned completely demolish opus 4.5. It's not even close. I'd say they are between opus 4.8 and opus 5. And better in some tasks.
Every larger company I talk to these days has an active project on moving away from OpenAI and Anthropic to open models. And they’re actively shifting, as the article says, so the threat is far from theoretical. Unless they both dramatically slash prices then they’re in big trouble. Neither of them can afford to do that and both desperately need to convince the street that the opposite will happen if they want any ho…
But Claude also makes it really hard to do that, so what am I even really paying for? Time to extract all my data, put it into a sqlite with FTS5 and make sure I never rely on the overly-opinionated, low-thinking PMs from these giant orgs again.
Of course, that "easy" step has lots of partial solutions like CTK (Conversation Toolkit) or MyChatArchive and I haven't found the perfect one yet, ideally it'd be something that dumped everything into Obsidian or an Obsidian-alike, but surely somebody is working on that? I'd pay $5/month for somebody to solve that problem for me, as long as I still owned the data...
The race is still on
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But most commodities are the same way. It’s super expensive to drill for oil. I need oil and I’m in no position to mine my own because of the massive capital investment. But it doesn’t stop it from being a pure commodity. I couldn’t care less which company drilled for the oil… it’s all the same to me. Models are increasingly no different. OpenAI and Anthropic are a gas station saying “buy our gas for 10x the price!”…
I argue there's no difference. At least OpenAI/Anthropic can be considered premium like Octane 93 while OSS ones are 87. I agree 90% of the world can work with 87 gas, but there's always niche/luxury market where 93 can make small difference. (edit: typo)
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I knew that there was no real moat from the very start, I mean, these things were close enough from the very start, how could it not result in a race to the bottom, especially as you can't really prevent distillation reliably?
I support and use open models as much as possible, but I'm not totally convinced that OAI or Anthropic have no moat, even as open models catch up to the frontier. Serving and inference are still hard problems when you're talking about a 2 trillion parameter model. Fine-tuning, if that remains a realistic need for businesses, is also a difficult infra problem at that scale. In the most bearish case, where there is no…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I knew that there was no real moat from the very start, I mean, these things were close enough from the very start, how could it not result in a race to the bottom, especially as you can't really prevent distillation reliably?
I support and use open models as much as possible, but I'm not totally convinced that OAI or Anthropic have no moat, even as open models catch up to the frontier. Serving and inference are still hard problems when you're talking about a 2 trillion parameter model. Fine-tuning, if that remains a realistic need for businesses, is also a difficult infra problem at that scale. In the most bearish case, where there is no…
The problem is serving is a skill readily mastered by the hyperscalers. That's their MO.
All they need is weights to serve. And the open models provide that.
OpenAI is relatively well placed in that they have inference chips they've designed and they own compute.