221–227 of 227 posts
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I'll leave this here, Donald Trump Jr got a free stake in Kalshi. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/donald-tr...
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> NHS gambling clinics have experienced a rise of 130% in referrals in a year, leading to a large increase in the number of support locations. Sounds like the enlightened citizens of the UK aren't either?
Searched the quote and you neglected to elaborate on how small the number is: > Health service figures show that from April to September 2024, 1,914 people were treated at NHS gambling clinics. This compares to the previous financial year when a total of 1,389 patients were cared for. In 2022-23 this number was 1,013, and in 2020-21 it was 775 patients. I get that you're probably trying to make a point that it's bad…
I guess I should just stick to really deep thoughts like "America is not the UK and its citizens are not capable of regulating themselves in the face of this sort of exploitation", with absolutely nothing other than vibes that it's true. Because of course Americans are dumb.
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I do. I’m open to being convinced, but if you’re claiming mainstream media has no accountability, I think you need to substantiate that. I realize there are information bubbles on the internet where this is accepted as truth, but unexamined. Nonsense is everywhere on the internet. I’d be curious how you’d substantiate this.
You can just watch or read the mainstream news for a few days and see for yourself, really. They may not outright lie that much, but they constantly lie by omission - all of them. And when they are called out, it's like screaming into the void since they just ignore it and carry on their merry way. Hence, very little if any accountability, and usually because the people that rely on these sources aren't the ones call…
I read mainstream news, but I don't know what you're referring to.
It's not like they are perfect, but I do see accountability when they screw up.
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> Prediction markets are a wonderful idea Yeah, it's just like being able to take an insurance policy on other people's lives. It's a wonderful idea for all of 15 minutes until people start getting murdered. > bare minimum of regulation No amount of regulation will solve the issue when what you can take insurance on is not regulated. Prediction markets are to insurance the same as crypto is to banking: a speedrun of…
What an enormously tendentious and underinformed take.
I don't think it's quite that tendentious. You can say "well, but that's not the majority of the marketplace" and you're right. But it's not an inconsequential one, either.
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You've been able to gamble on your mobile device for 100 years in the UK? Modern gambling isn't you talking to a bookie and putting down $100 on your favorite team. That should still be legal. Phone apps which learn your behavior, your favorite teams, the offers you are likely to accept, the time of day that you're most likely to make a bet, etc etc and use that to barrage you with notifications, "free" plays, high p…
Out of curiosity, why should sports betting via a bookie be legal in the US? Currently it is not.
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> the claim that prediction markets do not accurately predict the future. It's trivial to prove that this claim is false, because if it were true, it would be very easy for anyone to make a huge amount of money on prediction markets I'm not intimately familiar with prediction markets (I avoid gambling), but can you explain how this is the case? If the market unpredictably incorrect, then shouldn't it be difficult / i…
I think a good toy example here could be a market on a coinflip. Let's say heads pays out $1 and tails pays out $0, and people can buy and sell contracts that resolve this way. Naively, people might think that this is a 50/50 outcome, so if anyone wanted to buy or sell this contract for some reason, they'd likely be able to find someone to trade with them around the price of 50 cents. Now, say that you somehow knew t…
The best information available to those participating in the market (in good faith).
> Now, say that you somehow knew that this coin wasn't a fair coin
So insider trading?
I appreciate the verbose response, but the original comment implied that prediction markets literally predict the future... Which as you've stated they do not.
I'd contest the idea that they aggregate the best information too. Since they seem highly amenable to manipulation, the metagame of convincing the market that a given future is more or less likely seems more profitable.
Confidently stating a given markets prediction is wrong would involve accurately predicting the future... If one could do that consistently, a prediction market would be unnecessary to accruing wealth and power.