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Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

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Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#112
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unfamiliar with Go ratings, but chess ratings are based on the Elo system which is a simple mathematical prediction system. Borrowing some figures from Wiki [1] we get: 1.00 +800 0.99 +677 0.9 +366 0.8 +240 0.7 +149 0.6 +72 0.5 0 0.4 −72 0.3 −149 0.2 −240 0.1 −366 0.01 −677 0.00 −800 The second column is your rating minus your opponent's, and the left is your predicted result. So if you are rating 1849 and your o…

I was under the impression that Go also uses Elo, then I did a bit of cursory research and discovers that it varies. Two major federations are American Go Association (AGA) and European Go Federation (EGF). EGF uses an Elo-inspired update rule since 2021. AGA uses a quite-different Bayesian system without pairwise update; they provide a paper and a C++ reference impl. Asian countries don't bother with such numeric ra…

While it's not official, GoRatings (https://www.goratings.org/en/) ranks all players based on a variation of the Elo system (note that it is international, even if in practice you'd have to scroll quite far to find a few lonely Western persons).

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#113

Kellin Pelrine already beat KataGo in 2022 ( https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/13at6s5/how_many_bli... ). Why is this different? Is it meaningful that Shin is also extremely good at beating professional humans?

That kind of blind spot is pretty brilliant but more of a technical hack from a Go perspective. Shin is world #1 and won “the normal way”, i.e. playing good moves

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#114
post #90
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. It’s not my first language too, but your version sounds odd. Usually you put an action first and only then the details

Trouble is, from the existing title it's not clear who had the handicap. So the poster is right to try and fix it.

It's not clear from the revised title either though. In fact I found it even more confusing. The issue is the ambiguity of the wording "with a two-stone handicap", not where it's located in the sentence.

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#115
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trouble is, from the existing title it's not clear who had the handicap. So the poster is right to try and fix it.

It's not clear from the revised title either though. In fact I found it even more confusing. The issue is the ambiguity of the wording "with a two-stone handicap", not where it's located in the sentence.

I would probably phrase it as 'Go grandmaster Shin defeats two-stone-handicapped AI KataGo'

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#116
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right that Shin Jinseo is a generational talent, and more dominant than anyone since Lee Changho (peaked in the 90s and was strong into the early-mid 2000s). However, you can't compare goratings over time, the top ranks are not nearly stable enough. https://www.goratings.org/en/history/ (I think it's believable Shin Jinseo is better than Lee Changho, but not that there has been steady progress since the days o…

The problem is ambient go knowledge. A top 100 player would easily beat time traveling Lee Changho in his first few matchups. Of course give peak Lee Changho a fortnight to prep with Katago and … well that would be something!

It's not obvious to me, but I lean towards saying this is false. The 2026 player would play a better AI inspired opening, but I'm not sure that would be enough to overcome the skill difference.

(This is especially true if they don't get briefed "this is time-traveling Lee Changho, he doesn't know contemporary joseki, play a trap variation").

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right that Shin Jinseo is a generational talent, and more dominant than anyone since Lee Changho (peaked in the 90s and was strong into the early-mid 2000s). However, you can't compare goratings over time, the top ranks are not nearly stable enough. https://www.goratings.org/en/history/ (I think it's believable Shin Jinseo is better than Lee Changho, but not that there has been steady progress since the days o…

You can't compare Elo ratings over long stretches of time, period. Ratings drift over time, based on the total population of people competing. I think the most accurate way to view Elo ratings is as a measure of skill vs. the average rated player. If you want to compare Magnus Carlsen's peak rating of 2882 in the year 2014 to Garry Kasparov's peak rating of 2851 in the year 1999, you have to know how strong the total…

> You can't compare Elo ratings over long stretches of time, period.

I agree that you cannot do it reliably, in principle.

However, Bobby Fischer peaked at 2785, and Gary Kasparov peaked at 2851. These are not far from what informed observers suggest--maybe 50 or 100 points off. They are well into super-grandmaster territory. Kasparov would be 1st today, Fischer would be 4th.

But on goratings.org, the top player of the 90s would be roughly 30th today.

My point is that the go ratings are much more unstable than the chess ratings. With chess ratings, you'll be wrong in the details. With go ratings, you'll be catastrophically wrong.

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#119
Deep Blue vs Garry Kasparov (1997) and AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol (2016) marked the first defeats of a world champion by a machine in a chess or Go match. Coincidentally, both machines played an iconic move on Move 37 of Game 2:

• Deep Blue played Be4, declining a pawn capture to achieve a long-term positional advantage and fueling Kasparov’s suspicions of human intervention.

• AlphaGo played P10, a brilliant 5th-line shoulder hit that live commentators initially dismissed as a blunder or misclick.

https://franky07724-57962.medium.com/amazing-coincidence-in-...

Re: Go grandmaster Shin defeats AI KataGo with a two-stone handicap

#120

Is there an equivalent of LeelaKnightOdds for Go? That might be harder to tackle.

This would be exactly that. The handicap stones in go allow it, it also works between humans of different strength levels. Now, if you mean a NN specifically trained to play at disadvantage, that would be extremely interesting and I hope they make it!
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