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VC isn't VC anymore

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Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#151
The article does not mention or address an important contributor to the current state of VC. The increase in regulations, post GFC, made it impractical/impossible for small companies to go public. And, until recently M&A was actively avoided. The alternative was to stay private longer offering higher returns for private investors wanting to capture a (previously non-existent) illiquidity premium. The co-dependency of companies and growth VC fueled an entirely new asset class (that many still call VC). As well as 100s of overfunded zombie unicorns.

Today, the AI boom is a perfect storm of opportunity to put $Ts to work in frontier model AI Cos.

"In recent years, as private markets inflated, the default behavior switched to remaining private and absorbing more capital (to justify more VC fee income). This has resulted in fewer IPOs, and worsening prospects post-IPO for venture-backed companies."

https://x.com/credistick/status/2092259921177804930

So, maybe more regulation is not the answer.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#152
post #25

I’m a VC and agree with much of this. The mega firms have totally warped VC and the desire for massive cash appreciation has led to a host of bad characters getting involved. I still love working with early stage companies but it is hard to cut your own lane when these mega groups control so many aspects of the stack and have such outsized capital and political influence. There are so many issues destroying early sta…

Hate to sound like a Marxist but... this is what happens when capital has this much power concentrated in so few people. Eventually the system eats itself. If you're in the right elite at the right time though, you can make a lot of money while everything falls apart underneath

>> Eventually the system eats itself.

Can it please finish itself before it eats the table, chairs, and dishes?

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#153
post #25

I’m a VC and agree with much of this. The mega firms have totally warped VC and the desire for massive cash appreciation has led to a host of bad characters getting involved. I still love working with early stage companies but it is hard to cut your own lane when these mega groups control so many aspects of the stack and have such outsized capital and political influence. There are so many issues destroying early sta…

Based on my experience on the fundraising side, I'm inclined to agree with your perspective. One small nit to pick: I think policy changes can happen. However, it's hard for me to imagine meaningful change occurring before a catastrophic event. How big would the blast radius be? Obviously no one knows, but I hope it's closer in scope to "The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank" as opposed to "The Collapse of Lehman Broth…

I don’t think collapse is by itself a good predictor of change. People in collapse just bow easier. Change of this scale unfortunately comes from terminal and collective despair. Let’s not rule out either normal change, not every marginal action needs to make things worse. The system might have enough variation still to turn around. In short, despair or its anticipation are not optimal strategies.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#154
I think a lot about fixing broken VC-founder dynamics, and this post by Marc Pincus (https://x.com/markpinc/status/2089572143344599079) crystallized one plank of the platform.

The principle is simple. VCs are soccer stars, but founders play basketball.

Basketball and soccer share much in common. For instance, both involve teams dribbling, passing, and shooting a round ball. But successful abilities and traits in one may not translate to the other.

Think of each profession as a different sport. Venture, growth, and value investing all differ, and all differ from founding.

VCs are all driven and highly intelligent, but so are lawyers, bankers, and consultants. Talent isn't the issue.

Capital confers authority, but not expertise.

Based on resume alone, 80% of VCs would not earn board seats at their portfolio companies. Their experience and skills, much like consultants and value investors, were honed on a field different from the basketball arena where founders compete.

Here's a quick heuristic: sans capital, would you still hire the VC to sit on the board? If yes, wonderful.

This is no slight and works in reverse: 80% of founders would not earn the right to direct VC investments.

To clarify, great VCs are absolutely worth the premium and can reshape a startup's trajectory as all great advisors can. If you find a great VC, do not haggle. Strike a deal, and return to building.

The greatest VCs exhibit the same pattern, understanding their role on the startup team as advisors, not alphas. They are often understated and work tirelessly on behalf of their clients.

The worst VCs exhibit the inverse pattern and imagine themselves as the alpha, not appreciating how a talented peer could have replaced them without changing the exit. They are loud on social media and assume accomplishments from finance or FAANG map to the startup arena. These VCs should run funds on Wall Street, not advise founders in Silicon Valley.

How do we highlight good VCs without attacking bad ones? Many good VCs, as with many good advisors, prefer subdued profiles and dislike self-promotion. This is the challenge.

The original idea was to flag bad VCs, but such a system grants founders too much power to levy unjust charges and settle feuds.

After all, many disputes are legitimate and reflect bad founders. Founders, like all professionals, sit on a spectrum. The surge of big money has spawned plenty of bad ones who, sadly enough, do not represent the best of tech and innovation but rather greed and self-aggrandizement.

The Pincus post sparked a cleaner iteration.

The proposal is a public page/spreadsheet where only founders can post, only after an outcome or a certain number of years, and only with affirmative assessments. Nothing negative, nothing anonymous. Posts must certify no quid pro quo or other VC prodding.

Topics could include responsiveness, support during dark days, absence of alpha syndrome, and other key considerations.

Over time, good VCs should reveal a clear pattern and attract new founders: founders trusting them again with repeat business and consistent high marks across the portfolio, not only unicorns. Arguably, the strongest signal will radiate from the worst outcomes.

Critically, this system won't incite mob justice or expose VCs to unfair accusations, but can still suggest who to diligence more deeply.

The purpose is to spotlight good VCs who advance innovation and startups over time, letting their body of work rise to the top and garner proper recognition.

Of course, it penalizes newer investors and is vulnerable to gaming like any system, but it plugs a small gap. Founders want to find good investors based on data, but good investors dislike boasting.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#155
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m trying. I love startups and want as many good entrepreneurs to succeed as possible. All the VC drama causes people to forget the whole point. It’s inherent with true capitalism. You have to be willing to forego some profit to actually treat people right and for some that’s just too much.

> You have to be willing to forego some profit to actually treat people right I wish they taught this in business schools. I get the impression they really don't, based on my experiences with business grads

Judging from the handful of B school professors I’ve interacted with, I’d be surprised if they didn’t.

Judging from the many HBS students I’ve interacted with, the takeaway seems to be judiciously avoiding treating people fairly.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#156

The article does not mention or address an important contributor to the current state of VC. The increase in regulations, post GFC, made it impractical/impossible for small companies to go public. And, until recently M&A was actively avoided. The alternative was to stay private longer offering higher returns for private investors wanting to capture a (previously non-existent) illiquidity premium. The co-dependency of…

Yes this is something I think a lot about.

The issues raised in this article are very real but even aside from that, you end up enabling a class of zombie companies that have no pressure to succeed. Their founders raise and end up as advisors and LPs themselves eventually while employees at these companies receive equity that will never be liquid and will rarely be worth anything. At best the equity in these companies will be realized at steep discounts as the lack of liquid markets makes it very easy for private companies to claim that a company was valued at a certain amount at a certain time with scant certainty of what happens next. Companies stay unprofitable and private for decades, relying on private markets to stay solvent.

Pre-GFC plenty of undisciplined, unprofitable companies would IPO. While some did take public money then eventually go under, most just made their underwriters lose money. With pressure to trade publicly and put sunshine on company books, losers lost and winners won.

The result is a K-shaped economy. Private capital appreciates on paper and private capital holders take out loans on the inflated value of their equities. Meanwhile public markets are more discriminating and fiscally tight by necessity. A private company may eventually go under but cheap loans collateralized on private capital may be paid back before there's any financial reckoning.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#157

I've been in an interesting spot the last few months. I've pitched probably two dozen or so VCs and, and while almost every case showed interest, it was quickly followed by "rules" and "desires" that were antithetical to the product. The product I am building is a decentralized trust system. The word "trust" is literally in the name. It requires very specific decisions and a very specific organizational and legal str…

Not sure how practical for your startup, but how much of the next 18 months can you fund in ways that don't create equity (or implied equity) overlords? Can design-partners prepay? Can you get paid pilots, deposits, a grant?

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#158

We need something like an open source model or guild for VC, where successful people can put money into a pool that is generally accessible to anyone, with little friction. The idea would be to join the guild and gain access to funding, with a contract to contribute back some percentage of gross revenue and/or net profit, depending on how many people game the rules. Honestly, wealth inequality has reached such epic p…

There is something like this with crowdfunding called Reg CF (Regulation Crowdfunding) but it comes with many limitations. Ultimately the worry is that less wealthy people will invest their life savings in a scam and be rugpulled. Groups of accredited investors can, and definitely, do this. The problem is that these large funds have lost their scruples and it's hard to compete against a large fund that can outspend and out market a smaller one.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#159
post #25

I’m a VC and agree with much of this. The mega firms have totally warped VC and the desire for massive cash appreciation has led to a host of bad characters getting involved. I still love working with early stage companies but it is hard to cut your own lane when these mega groups control so many aspects of the stack and have such outsized capital and political influence. There are so many issues destroying early sta…

I think “regular” VCs are one of the cohorts of people I feel worst for! I have a lot of friends who got into the business wanting to help entrepreneurs, and now they’re stuck on a cap table with folks who they’d never want to do business with. It’s not any different than the founders or employees who don’t want to be saddled with these guys, either. The hard part is figuring out how to change these structures so tha…

I don't feel bad for VCs. Venture capital has turned the old style of startup entrepreneurship into a financial hustle of Startupism that is about trading equity value and not about venture creation. Maybe it always was about that, but at least in the 1960s-early 2010s it seemed at least somewhat more about business and value creation. Now it all just seems like a financial hustle. I hope we see VC become the minority way that businesses are built and financed as it used to be in the tech industry.

Re: VC isn't VC anymore

#160
post #2

Let's keep praying for fewer and fewer regulations, it's going great! I didn't know that VCs were ever "not cancer", I've always known them like that. Also my experience with startups is that it is a big scam for employees, but I understand it's not always the case (maybe it depends on where in the world?). I have been an early employee in multiple startups that got the founders rich, and what I got from the stocks d…

Everything which is not your salary is completely speculative, and should be valued at near-zero. That you wanted to gamble on that was your own decision and your own fault. You have nobody to blame but yourself. If you had gotten rich from the stocks you wouldn't have complained here.

> If you had gotten rich from the stocks you wouldn't have complained here.

Duh.

> That you wanted to gamble on that

What makes you think I gambled at all?

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