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GPT-6 Astra

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Re: GPT-6 Astra

#401

Post by ckdot »

gavinray wrote: post #372
Chinjut wrote: post #331

What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of a…

> How will we make a living? Swap to a career path that requires physical automation, since we're still about 10-20 years out on that front. My backup plan is being a personal trainer.

10-20 years? I doubt it. There are a bunch of companies actively working in bringing AI into robots, so they can make your dishes. And so far progress looks quite good. Also, if enough people are going for the same backup plan it might not work out. Why should anyone book you as a personal trainer instead of the other 500 guys in town. And who is going to be able to afford paying you anyway?

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#402

Post by demirbey05 »

gavinray wrote: post #372
Chinjut wrote: post #331

What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of a…

> How will we make a living? Swap to a career path that requires physical automation, since we're still about 10-20 years out on that front. My backup plan is being a personal trainer.

We are talking that hundred millions of people will switch their jobs, how you will keep your value or earning as personal trainer. It's not easy to say switch the job. This question must be answered by politicians not us.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#403

Post by chrismarlow9 »

mullingitover wrote: post #259
abixb wrote: post #235

I want to take a step back: So, this is GPT-6 -- the natural number version release comparable to GPT-4 and GPT-5 from the past few years. The ARC-AGI-3 score is obviously impressive at 99.9% (we'll need to wait for more details on how they used the response API harness on GPT-6 Astra, wrt reasoning retention and compaction), but every other benchmarks seems to be a relatively modest improvement, comparable with any…

> If this is truly AGI (subject to one's definition of AGI still), then this is a very boring release of an AGI model. Hot take: These models are never going to be 'AGI'. We're just going from a GPT4 ball that's 90% round to a GPT5 that's 99% round to a GPT6 that's 99.9% etc etc etc I think that the harnesses and context management is really where the rubber meets the road, and the real gains are happening there.

I don't remember where I heard this, but one of my favorite criticisms of the current AI situation is that it's wrong simply because of the size and energy required compared to the human brain. The idea is that there's still some element missing thats fundamental, and that the way we train them now is part of the solution, but not all of it. I think finding the extra missing element is going to take an entirely different approach that will also solve the sizing and resource issue. The kickers is that if they do achieve (and solve) AGI in this way all the giant data centers would be mostly useless.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#404

Post by pera »

intenex wrote: post #257

The ARC-AGI-3 scorecard is extremely misleading given that it clearly states itself that "with [the responses API] harness, we estimate Sol would score in the ballpark of ~30%." but it shows a score of 7.8% for GPT-5.6 Sol presumably since if they updated the percentage for GPT-5.6 Sol to the score it would receive with the responses API harness they used for GPT-6 Astra they'd have to do the same for the percentage…

To each their own. Personally I will start feeling the AGI as soon as we move from chatting about benchmark results to learn that some lab just announced the discovery of tens of novel treatments for rare diseases.

Maybe I'm too boring but it seems quite pointless to have this same prediction game every time a new model is released.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#405

Post by adan1719 »

intenex wrote: post #257

The ARC-AGI-3 scorecard is extremely misleading given that it clearly states itself that "with [the responses API] harness, we estimate Sol would score in the ballpark of ~30%." but it shows a score of 7.8% for GPT-5.6 Sol presumably since if they updated the percentage for GPT-5.6 Sol to the score it would receive with the responses API harness they used for GPT-6 Astra they'd have to do the same for the percentage…

The benchmarks are so boring that the comparison against humans is meaningless. So it performs in some snake game (hard to say since all AI websites use 100% CPU and prevent normal reading, maybe written by AGI).

If I were a test subject for that low salary, I'd cruise and not care at all about my performance. Which is exactly what they want anyway.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#406

Post by demirbey05 »

MrAbstract wrote: post #394
Chinjut wrote: post #331

What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of a…

I have exactly the same thoughts - or perhaps slightly bleaker ones - evry time I read this relentless stream of news about new model releases. I’m tired of all the enthusiastic comments about how excited everyone is about the latest benchmark results and so on. I have a strong suspicion that many of those comments are written by people who are already financially independent, have millions in stocks, and can just si…

Yes same thoughts. I dont know anyone who are both enthusiastic about those and work for salary. If you dont have any financial concern, this is really great.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#407

Post by fantasizr »

jdprgm wrote: post #300

Is anyone else just exhausted by the pace of all this. The models change constantly and relentlessly and so does the pricing, basically weekly at this point between all the labs. It feels nearly impossible to have any rigorous approach when choosing a particular model and price point for a task and more like blindly picking one. The time period needed to actually get familiar with various models to a degree you can i…

I stopped caring about the latest and greatest but because there's so much, the 'obsolete' free models do what I need and are worth the price.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#408

Post by boinkboink78912 »

MrAbstract wrote: post #394
Chinjut wrote: post #331

What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of a…

I have exactly the same thoughts - or perhaps slightly bleaker ones - evry time I read this relentless stream of news about new model releases. I’m tired of all the enthusiastic comments about how excited everyone is about the latest benchmark results and so on. I have a strong suspicion that many of those comments are written by people who are already financially independent, have millions in stocks, and can just si…

[dead]

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#409

Post by richstokes »

MrAbstract wrote: post #394
Chinjut wrote: post #331

What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of a…

I have exactly the same thoughts - or perhaps slightly bleaker ones - evry time I read this relentless stream of news about new model releases. I’m tired of all the enthusiastic comments about how excited everyone is about the latest benchmark results and so on. I have a strong suspicion that many of those comments are written by people who are already financially independent, have millions in stocks, and can just si…

I feel the same sometimes. I don’t see how this doesn’t lead to massive job losses. The thing we spent our lives/careers learning is now worth basically nothing in comparison.

AI is only going to get better and do more with less humans in the loop over time.

That said, I do also relate to the "coding was never the hard part"-type arguments, and much of my day is spent on the stuff in between writing code.. but still.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#410

Post by crooked-v »

zug_zug wrote: post #400
intenex wrote: post #257

The ARC-AGI-3 scorecard is extremely misleading given that it clearly states itself that "with [the responses API] harness, we estimate Sol would score in the ballpark of ~30%." but it shows a score of 7.8% for GPT-5.6 Sol presumably since if they updated the percentage for GPT-5.6 Sol to the score it would receive with the responses API harness they used for GPT-6 Astra they'd have to do the same for the percentage…

> I'd be curious to hear takes on what would make you think Astra is yet to be AGI, and what would still need to be achieved for this to effectively be AGI from this point forward. To me AGI is all about the "G" general (we already had the AI part). General meaning universal, everything. It's not a function of knowledge or specific hardcoded tests, it's that you could give it a test it's never heard of before and nev…

> come up with a new company idea, Run that company

So far nobody's even shown an LLM succesfully running a high-traffic vending machine for as much as 30 days at a time.

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