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GPT-6 Astra

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Re: GPT-6 Astra

#351

The most interesting part, even more than ARC 3 score, to me is that this is the first model I recall seeing that scores lower on Max than High reasoning effort on some coding benchmarks: Terminal-Bench 4.0: High (57.9%), Max (56.7%) DeepSWE: High (73.3%), Max (71.5%) It _loses_ 1-2% performance going to High from Max

That's quite common with many models, after "High" reasoning, over-thinking starts occurring and the model skips over the right solution by convincing itself otherwise.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#352
post #317

Is anyone else just exhausted by the pace of all this. The models change constantly and relentlessly and so does the pricing, basically weekly at this point between all the labs. It feels nearly impossible to have any rigorous approach when choosing a particular model and price point for a task and more like blindly picking one. The time period needed to actually get familiar with various models to a degree you can i…

That's how cutting edge tech has always worked. Imagine buying a shiny new PC in the 90s only to see it become practically obsolete within a year.

That's not the experience of owning a PC I remember from the 90s at all.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#353

This is wild: OpenAI is basically declaring that AGI is here. https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/989601/o... “If we fast-forward a couple of years, and we look back and say, ‘When was it, really, that AGI was created?’ I think it’s going to be about this time, and I think it might be about this model,” OpenAI president Greg Brockman said during a Thursday press briefing. Later in the call, he added,…

Sam Altman himself has said it is not AGI unless it can discover novel physics.

https://x.com/burny_tech/status/1725233117055553938

In the tweet Sam Altman is quoted as saying: "If (for example) super intelligence can't discover novel physics I don't think it's a superintelligence. And teaching it to clone the behavior of humans and human text - I don't think that's going to get there. And so there's this question which has been debated in the field for a long time: what do we have to do in addition to a language model to make a system that can go discover new physics?"

I think this is a reasonable criteria for declaring AGI. So can GPT-6 do it? OpenAI says it has helped solve long-standing open problems in mathematics. No word on novel physics.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#354

I'm sure it's going to do great on all sorts of benchmarks, but the video--the actual marketing video that if anything is incentivised to overstate things--is full of careful cuts just before it would do anything that still wouldn't actually be that impressive. It's AGI, and it's going to upload photos, or change a background slide colour. Even the people hyping it up, who believe that it's really artificial intellig…

The house of cards is starting to fall apart

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#357

I remember when GPT-4 came out and the perceived performance upgrade seemed underwhelming for a major release compared to 3.5, especially how there were graphics going around showing the parameter size dwarfing the last model before it came out. It looked like we were past the perceivable differences from release to release that were immediately identifiable. Now the jump between 5 to 5.5 and 5.6 alone has changed ho…

The jump from 3.5 to 4 felt gigantic to me back then. GPT 5.0 did feel underwhelming though.

Agree but it's helpful to remember how we were personally benchmarking. I remember people saying stuff like "haha I asked gpt4 for xyz function and the typescript didn't even compile". We're so far beyond that now, we just adapt quickly.

Re: GPT-6 Astra

#359

What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of a…

AGI-level model is perpetually 18 months away. Your job will be fine.
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