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New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

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Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#151

Post by freejazz »

kevinwang wrote: post #112
Zigurd wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also an obvious and cynical regulatory dodge. Prediction markets make the bulk of their profit from sports betting.

obviously and definitely true in their current form. But it's maybe worth clarifying that before this last year or two, when Kalshi became an obvious regulatory dodge (including adding sports and really leaning into the gambling demographic), many were interested in prediction markets not just for that purpose: e.g. the rationalist community seems to have had a longstanding interest in the idea, manifold didn't have…

>the rationalist community seems to have had a longstanding interest in the idea

Easiest way to know its just valueless

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#152

Post by cft »

nomilk wrote: post #126

A great irony here is that Kalshi and media generally are competitors. When I make important decisions (e.g. understanding politics, where to travel and setup companies), I always value betting markets over hearsay (aka media). The former has real money at stake, whereas the latter often has no skin in the game (as well as a other issues; like herd mentality, sensationalism, incentive to tell people what they want to…

Prediction markets as a news source are politically unbiased and nonpartisan , and this is what the establishment people here don't like.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#153

Post by azan_ »

amelius wrote: post #120
orangecat wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, and how does banning short-term trading make the world more fair?

For one thing because now people who own high-speed low-latency connections to stock markets have no advantage over "normal" people who actually do meaningful work, like being a policeman or nurse.

Price discovery and increasing liquidity is meaningful work.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#154

Post by freejazz »

esalman wrote: post #84
gadders wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realise that countries other than the USA exist, right? The UK has had various forms of sports gambling legal for nearly 100 years and society hasn't crumbled and neither did sport.

Sports gambling is controlled by FTC in the US. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket found a loophole where they can run gambling operations under CFTC and and not be controlled by FTC. There needs to be some legislative actions from the Congress to close the loophole.

Nothing needs to be done, Kalshi has no loophole. The Ninth Circuit ruled on exactly this last week.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#155

Post by azan_ »

amelius wrote: post #117
cyberax wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You want short term trading because you want the prices to be as close to efficient as possible But do I want the prices to be as efficient as possible?

If this whole efficiency argument means I'm going to make $1 more per month while some lousy traders make $100k more per month, then I'd say: to hell with "efficiency". Fairness and wealth equality are more important to me than $1. Also considering that these traders will use their $100k in ways that my $1 will become worth even less. For example by buying all the housing in my neighborhood and thereby increasing my…

It’s amazing how successful populism is, even HN is now full of populistic comments.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#156

Post by amelius »

azan_ wrote: post #153
amelius wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For one thing because now people who own high-speed low-latency connections to stock markets have no advantage over "normal" people who actually do meaningful work, like being a policeman or nurse.

Price discovery and increasing liquidity is meaningful work.

To a very limited extent, maybe.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#157

Post by dominotw »

cdrnsf wrote: post #66
dominotw wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you seen stock market these days?

Yes. It feels more and more like a casino as time goes by.

would love to see if there is any data if stocks are more volatile now for ai related stocks

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#158

Post by seizethecheese »

logicchains wrote: post #143
giwook wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where is that "less than 1%" figure coming from or did you just pull that out from you-know-where? And alcohol has always been highly accessible. I have 5 stores within a 5 minute walk of me that I can get it from, and that's not to mention all of the restaurants and bars within that same radius. Addiction is addiction. Alcohol is one object of that addiction. Sports betting can be another. Porn, food, drugs, etc. Wh…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gambling_in_the_Uni... >What's to say sports betting addiction won't become as severe as alcohol now that it's becoming more accessible to the public? Because it's been accessible for over a hundred years in many countries, from 1861 in the case of Australian horse race betting.

Under 1% of the population is not the same as under 1% of people exposed, and if we dramatically increase exposure, we probably will proportionally increase problem gambling. Regardless, this is a good point, this isn’t nearly as high as alcoholism or even drug addiction, I suspect.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#159

Post by sojournerc »

logicchains wrote: post #143
giwook wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where is that "less than 1%" figure coming from or did you just pull that out from you-know-where? And alcohol has always been highly accessible. I have 5 stores within a 5 minute walk of me that I can get it from, and that's not to mention all of the restaurants and bars within that same radius. Addiction is addiction. Alcohol is one object of that addiction. Sports betting can be another. Porn, food, drugs, etc. Wh…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gambling_in_the_Uni... >What's to say sports betting addiction won't become as severe as alcohol now that it's becoming more accessible to the public? Because it's been accessible for over a hundred years in many countries, from 1861 in the case of Australian horse race betting.

You haven't addressed the problem of availability. It's one thing to go to the track physically to bet, vs having the track in your pocket available 24/7 with wagers on literally everything.

Do I think betting addiction will be as bad or prevalent as alcholism? Probably not, yet it's worth considering restricting it for social good. Just like we don't let 13 year olds buy bottles of whiskey.

Re: New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal

#160

Post by nateglims »

Alex3917 wrote: post #118
tantalor wrote: post #57

The linked article is pretty interesting: > found a pattern of [Polymarket] sharing false and misleading information https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/technology/polymarket-soc... They don't have much to say about Kalshi other than "unlike real mainstream journalism, there’s no accountability". Which isn't saying much, because nobody is claiming prediction markets are a type of journalism.

> nobody is claiming prediction markets are a type of journalism. James Surowiecki wrote an entire book essentially saying otherwise.

James Surowiecki has been dismissive about these prediction markets actually meeting the criteria for the Wisdom of the Crowds.
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