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Reasons robotics is hard

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Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#21

Post by ModernMech »

logicallee wrote: post #2

people very soon as going to look back at all of us and just think "they didn't even have robots yet! how did they even eat?" Well, future readers, it isn't easy! We either go to the store and bring back groceries ourselves or pay a helper to do it. No robot in the loop there. Then when it comes time to cook something we either have to cut it up and otherwise prepare it and then cook it ourselves, or another human ca…

As if people of the future will be able to read. Maybe some future AI anthropologists will read it though.

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#22

Post by honr »

Animats wrote: post #17

A marker of progress will be when Amazon converts to automated picking. They've been trying hard for almost a decade now. They had an annual competition for years. They have a decent picking robot developed in house.[1] It's not being deployed in quantity yet. Nor does it have anything like a humanoid hand. Just a two-surface gripper. Amazon's production robots are mostly automatic guided vehicles, not manipulators.…

That would only be a minor marker. A major marker would be whatever the Chinese equivalent(s) of Amazon are (Alibaba? etc.) going that route successfully. From academic / industrial conference presentations it appears Chinese services are banking on automation far more than an entity like Amazon does.

That being said, I don't know what exact state the industrial automation technology is there and I can only extrapolate (or do websearch, which didn't lead to enough details; I only found things like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnUGgc8R3ng).

When something like https://www.allegrohand.com is mass produced and used industrially, I bet the last mile (meter?) would change a bit, and full automation would be easier and less finicky.

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#23

Post by ralph84 »

honr wrote: post #22
Animats wrote: post #17

A marker of progress will be when Amazon converts to automated picking. They've been trying hard for almost a decade now. They had an annual competition for years. They have a decent picking robot developed in house.[1] It's not being deployed in quantity yet. Nor does it have anything like a humanoid hand. Just a two-surface gripper. Amazon's production robots are mostly automatic guided vehicles, not manipulators.…

That would only be a minor marker. A major marker would be whatever the Chinese equivalent(s) of Amazon are (Alibaba? etc.) going that route successfully. From academic / industrial conference presentations it appears Chinese services are banking on automation far more than an entity like Amazon does. That being said, I don't know what exact state the industrial automation technology is there and I can only extrapola…

Not sure about that. Labor costs are lower in China and the CCP is strongly incentivized to keep enough jobs around for humans to maintain their own hold on power.

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#24

Post by choonway »

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #3

Roboticist here. All of this, and he didn’t mention compliance or online adaptation to otherwise un-sensable dynamics. Or massively complex miniature mechanisms. Current generation tactile sensors cost a couple thousand $ PER FINGER, and have a real world MTBF of hours. The cost can be solved with economy of scale. The fragility is harder.

yep. and with the western funding model, how many hardware iterations can you do before you run out of runway?

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#25

Post by skybrian »

Animats wrote: post #17

A marker of progress will be when Amazon converts to automated picking. They've been trying hard for almost a decade now. They had an annual competition for years. They have a decent picking robot developed in house.[1] It's not being deployed in quantity yet. Nor does it have anything like a humanoid hand. Just a two-surface gripper. Amazon's production robots are mostly automatic guided vehicles, not manipulators.…

Yes, picking is one, and package delivery is another. I wonder how many people currently get package deliveries by robot? It might be a good metric to track?

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#26

Post by andsoitis »

the_sleaze_ wrote: post #20
andsoitis wrote: post #18

hairstylists are safe. and manicurists. and outcall masseurs. really anything that involves a bade near your body or where body contact is the point.

They've already got a kind of masseur. You put on a spandex outfit to reduce friction and lay under 2 arms apparently. > https://www.aescape.com/

that's neither sexy nor sensual. pass.

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#27

Post by Nition »

NichoPaolucci wrote: post #19
logicallee wrote: post #2

people very soon as going to look back at all of us and just think "they didn't even have robots yet! how did they even eat?" Well, future readers, it isn't easy! We either go to the store and bring back groceries ourselves or pay a helper to do it. No robot in the loop there. Then when it comes time to cook something we either have to cut it up and otherwise prepare it and then cook it ourselves, or another human ca…

Eat? You must be living under a rock. We've been evaporating our sustenance and storing it in the cloud for years. Perhaps nanobots will be able to carry the chemical makeup of a cheeseburger and rebuild a bite directly in our mouths, no cooking necessary!

Remember though, there is no food cloud really, just other people's fridges.

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#28

Post by LoganDark »

dyauspitr wrote: post #15
Onavo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Current generation tactile sensors cost a couple thousand $ PER FINGER, and have a real world MTBF of hours. The cost can be solved with economy of scale. The fragility is harder. Are we talking about experimental laboratory ones here? What happens when the Alibaba players start getting into the game? They have plenty of humanoid robots.

How much more sensitive do you need to be compared to say a standard mobile capacitive screen and those are essentially dirt cheap at this point.

Capacitive touchscreens are not tactile in any way whatsoever. They are purely electrical, and there are plenty of things (actually, most things, I'd say) which are not sufficiently capacitive to be detected by such approaches. You usually need to measure physical deformation instead, which is much more difficult to do precisely. (There are capacitive approaches to that, but they don't work like a touchscreen)

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#29

Post by YuechenLi »

I mean, functional robotics isn't that hard, robotic vacuums have been in homes for a decade now, and industrial robotic arms. However, humanoid robots IS hard mainly because of the form factor constraints. You can't really get a lot of power out of servo motors and other actuator if it all has to be self-contained in a humanoid form instead of using hydraulics or pneumonic or even big stepper motors as for stationary industrial robots.

The videos I've seen of humanoid robot applications are basically that it can do dishes and fold laundry, but I think if household chore robots ever come to market, they would probably not look humanoid at all and probably look like semi dishwashers/washing machines with wheels and a gripper arm.

Re: Reasons robotics is hard

#30

Post by sampullman »

ralph84 wrote: post #23
honr wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would only be a minor marker. A major marker would be whatever the Chinese equivalent(s) of Amazon are (Alibaba? etc.) going that route successfully. From academic / industrial conference presentations it appears Chinese services are banking on automation far more than an entity like Amazon does. That being said, I don't know what exact state the industrial automation technology is there and I can only extrapola…

Not sure about that. Labor costs are lower in China and the CCP is strongly incentivized to keep enough jobs around for humans to maintain their own hold on power.

Labor costs are lower, but rising, and already high enough that automation can be appealing.

The Chinese government is also pretty good at finding things for people to do, so I doubt that's a factor. Go to any big park in a city and see how many people are sweeping up leaves, or guarding a building/area that isn't particularly secure.

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