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How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

danluu.com

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Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#741

Post by rapnie »

threatripper wrote: post #665
rtpg wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's two possible set of predictions: - a list of predictions that are entirely wrong, from A-to-Z, and are not even resembling what ends up happening - a list of predictions that are wrong, but where the underlying points are in fact interesting and have some predictive value, and it's just the "last step" that is wrong For example, one person might say "oh it's raining in Dallas therefore I should buy some TI sto…

Being early is the same as being wrong. Being lucky is the same as being right.

Nice saying. If in the prediction "given [intricate analysis] the whole [shebang] goes [bust] at [date]", only the [date] turns out to be wrong, I'd say it is still a valuable prediction however, though it was wrong.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#742

Post by regginwohmot »

mschuster91 wrote: post #739
johnbarron wrote: post #721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Those differ from Dan’s essay, which engages with the literal text of Ed’s numerous predictions during 2024 and 2025 which are demonstrably invalidated by their measurable outcomes. Dan Luu did not engage on anything more, than a disorganized wall of text, ranted like a teenager using toxic personal attacks, while obsessing over calendar errors and a placeholder in a spreadsheet. If this is what passes here for a…

> It took years to take down Maddoff, and more to take down Bear Stearns. It will take maybe 5 - 10 years of "Ed Zitron is wrong posts here" until Anthropic and OpenAI have to be bailed out by the US government, but the day of reckoning will come. Unfortunately, the market can stay irrational (far) longer than you can remain solvent. In any case... I doubt Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI have any kind of moat that can just…

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Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#743

Post by BOOSTERHIDROGEN »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #691
DenisM wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the source material good, in your opinion?

> Is the source material good, in your opinion? No. For the same reason listening to Jim Kramer to get market data is a bad idea. There are other, better sources for those data.

Any examples ? Thanks

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#744

Post by mtrovo »

adventured wrote: post #318
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that's when we pay off the national debt for pennies on the worthless dollar. The pro move would be to stop lending the US money, but that's not going to happen.

The US doesn't require that you lend it money, it possesses the global reserve currency. It'll take it from you via currency debasement. That's a world problem whether the world likes it or not. There is still no viable (realistic) alternative, and that includes the Euro, Yen, Yuan, gold, Bitcoin. There are no lenders outside or inside of the US for $20 trillion in new debt over the next decade. Monetization is the o…

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Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#745

Post by iNerdier »

chii wrote: post #736
agentultra wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If many people hated their products, they wouldn't use them This might be true in a true, free market without monopolistic collusion and the abandonment of antitrust regulation and enforcement in the US. In many cases people don’t switch to something else because there isn’t an alternative. Or because they don’t know how to change the defaults that come installed on their computer. Or they get a big scary warning i…

> In many cases people don’t switch to something else because there isn’t an alternative. no, they have an alternative - abstinence. And yet, large majority overwhelmingly chooses not to abstain. Therefore, it does not matter what they say, because actions are the truth.

Ahh yes, much like abstinence only education worked so well for teen pregnancy rates.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#746

Post by root-parent »

janalsncm wrote: post #734

> February 2025: "I will keep writing this stuff until I’m proven wrong." Wrong (Zitron continues to write despite repeatedly being proven wrong) This was a good one.

The doctor said I was sick...but I did not die on Tuesday, so checkmate!

You are confusing an imprecise prognosis with a false diagnosis. And The funniest part is that "he keeps writing, therefore he was proven wrong" contains no actual proof that he is wrong.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#747

Post by Planktonne »

flockonus wrote: post #262
Planktonne wrote: post #260

I do think you have to consider predictions in the context of the world around them; he's been incorrect, sure, but has he been more incorrect than the predictions of those opposing him? Being less wrong than others is the same as being more right.

No idea what you're trying to say... he's been directionally wrong for years as the article illustrates clearly.

Zitron's predictions have often been wrong; they've still been less wrong than those of the people who disagree with him.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#749

Post by Dban1 »

rapnie wrote: post #741
threatripper wrote: post #665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being early is the same as being wrong. Being lucky is the same as being right.

Nice saying. If in the prediction "given [intricate analysis] the whole [shebang] goes [bust] at [date]", only the [date] turns out to be wrong, I'd say it is still a valuable prediction however, though it was wrong.

&&

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#750

Post by dosisking »

wmf wrote: post #609
dosisking wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI companies will never go to zero because AI is part of the Military Industrial Complex now. All the money is coming from the military and government for surveillance and power and war.

Speaking of wrong predictions... the entire US military budget would have to be spent on OpenAI/Anthropic to keep the bubble from bursting.

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