Maybe we have different interpretations of whether or not a prediction is correct or not.
If someone predicts in 1999 predicts self driving cars by 2020 and it happens in 2030. That seems different than predicting something we see no indication of ever happening. Like if they predicted 2020 and it happened in 2021 is that a fail. To me, no. The prediction is that the tech will exist at or around that date, not that the date is exact. Claiming it's a fail for being 1 second late is not a rational position and not at all in the spirit the predictions were made.
There's also issues like being directionally correct. Example: Someone says computers will be in everything. You can say "there's no computer's in fruit!, FAIL!" or you can look at the explosion of IoT devices and decide it was mostly right?
I get 17% correct if you're absolutely strict, 64% correct if you're charitable
2009
* Most books will be read on screens rather than paper.
The charitable interpretation is that most reading happens on screens, not paper. This is true today.
* Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
False
* Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways.
False in 2009, False in 2026 but directionally true. If you live in an area with Waymo you see them all time. I've driven down Olympic Blvd in Los Angeles and had my car surrounded by 5 Waymo cars at once. So is this false because it didn't happen by 2009 or is at least directionally true because it's happening, we see evidence of it happening, vs if we saw zero evidence then we could 100% say it's false.
* People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books.
rings, pins and credit cards, no, books, true. Smartphones are smaller than books. Maybe you could make the argument those are not personal computers. I think that is debatable. Even then, you can by PIs or Mini-PCs that are book size.
* Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation.
Arguably true. phones provide directions for navigation and are worn in pockets. Fitbits came out only a few years later. Id is not automated though.
* Cables are disappearing. Computer peripherals use wireless communication.
Arguably true. most laptops, all phones, most mice, keyboards, joypads, etc. are all wireless.
* People can talk to their computer to give commands.
False/True. Was possible was not common. That said, Siri shipped in 2011 so 2 years off.
* Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used.
False if you mean mainstream.
* Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video.
Face ID shipped in 2017. Is that to far off?
* Three-dimensional chips are commonly used.
I'm not sure what this means.
* Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space.
False,
* A $1,000 computer can perform a trillion calculations per second.
True, happened in 2008 with the ATI Radeon HD 4850
* There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing.
Happened in 2012 so 3 years off
* Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans.
Based on the actual words, this is true and was true before the prediction.
* Autonomous nano-engineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.
False
...continued...