Live data from Hacker News

How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

danluu.com

681–690 of 1001 posts

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#681
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reads slightly weird and more like a pledge of alignment than a statement from the heart. But apart from that, I guess that's always the learning? Journalists (or people labeling themselves as such) often have their own story they want to tell, and usually do so by building it out of little blocks of reality stacked together to form the desired picture. I would predict a similarly frustrating experience being eq…

That's an unfair characterization of tech journalists in general. When BuzzFeed News was around, I worked closely with them on technical aspects and projects to ensure that everything was correct and accurate, and there were very receptive to it; it was not a "directionally correct" thing, the journalists wanted to avoid any unintentional. That was also one of the reasons I was open-minded to helping Ed even though w…

> back when he was writing guest editorials on Gizmodo about Person of Interest (which is very very funny in hindsight)

Sometimes life has a sense of humor

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#682

I don't know anything about this guy, but based on the discourse every time he comes up, Ed Zitron is a more polarizing figure for HNers than even Trump. Everyone here loves trying to dunk on the guy, yet he's apparently living rent free in everyone's social media feeds.

Yeah for real, an AI critic being popular is making everyone here lose their minds and try to come up with ten "Well Akshually..."

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#683
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they? These companies have been caught tweaking their numbers. One example, not sure if cited by Zitron, or others, is that they build data centers through holding companies, who have to absorb the costs and massive capex based financial liabilites, so that the brand-name big-tech companies get to keep their expenses off their books. There have been trillions of debt discovered this way. Another issue is the appa…

> These companies have been caught tweaking their numbers... they build data centers through holding companies, who have to absorb the costs and massive capex based financial liabilites, so that the brand-name big-tech companies get to keep their expenses off their books. This is about as far from "tweaking their numbers" as you can get. It's a standard way infrastructure-heavy industries structure their investments…

> This is about as far from "tweaking their numbers" as you can get. It's a standard way infrastructure-heavy industries structure their investments and people would be asking questions if they didn't do this!

Well, it's enough to throw off standard EBITDA accounting and allow firms to report fictional earnings numbers. A standard story has been that companies have beat their Q3 estimates, only for their stocks to go down.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#684
post #377
post #39

[flagged]

Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer... https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.h…

It's my fault. I'll follow the rules more carefully.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#685

This critique is leaning really hard on their interpretation of "dying". They take the literal company is going to fail type of dying where as I have always taken it the same way he has presented it in his "rot-economy" context. They can remain financially "successful", but more and more people hate their products, their products are getting worse, their products are "dying". Google Search is still a good example, th…

> These tech giants need AI to continue to grow

This is unfalsifiable. AI is juicing the tech majors’ growth. And in the modern economy, it may be necessary for them.

But did Disney need the internet to grow in the 1990s? No, probably not. Did streaming give it all kinds of new growth victors? Yes. And would ignoring the internet for that last three decades have probably killed it? Also yes.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#686

Looking at the refutations of Zitrons predictions in TFA, it boils down to two categories: 1. Zitron claims model capability has peaked 2. Zitron claims AI lab growth (user and revenue) has stalled. In the first case, TFA refutes by claiming 'wrong' repeatedly, which does not convince me of anything. If anything, Zitron is probably right in this regard, since the majority of progress in recent LLM tech has been setti…

Model capabilities have peaked...? You need to try Fable or Sol.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#687
post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How well I remember someone predicting 7 of the last 2 recessions... Yes, one day , we'll have a recession. It doesn't mean the doom prophets were correct.

Agreed, but look at it the other way. Do you really think we'll never again have a recession? Some people genuinely believe that.

> Some people genuinely believe that

Sure. They’re in the same category of wrongness as Zitron. If someone said they follow the newsletter of a guy who claims we’ll never have a recession again, I’d quietly note that.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#688

This critique is leaning really hard on their interpretation of "dying". They take the literal company is going to fail type of dying where as I have always taken it the same way he has presented it in his "rot-economy" context. They can remain financially "successful", but more and more people hate their products, their products are getting worse, their products are "dying". Google Search is still a good example, th…

> More people hate and getting off Facebook. More people are jumping from Windows to macOS or Linux.

Might be true.

But here is another angle, thinking about the people I know that are not in tech or avid gamers, which I would say is still easily the majority of people.

Most are basically addicted to Instagram, Youtube etc.. Meta and Google owned companies, same goes with OS's, I can't think of one person that considered linux as their daily driver (other than unknowingly through phone).

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#689
post #283

Being thorough and accurate might make you a lot of money in the stock market, but it's not a good way to get any media presence, because that demands being in front of people quite often, and basically nobody can be insightful and well researched in all topics of the day. Once you become a pundit, whether on politics or tech, and rely on eyeballs to feed you, you are going to be throwing stinkers. And at that point,…

...get any media presence, because that demands being in front of people quite often, and basically nobody can be insightful and well researched in all topics of the day What? Zitron is getting a lot of media attention by repeating the same takes hundreds of times. He's not a general pundit.

> Zitron is getting a lot of media attention by repeating the same takes hundreds of times

They’re not the same take. Predicting collapse thirty days from now for three years running isn’t the same take, it’s a series of wrong takes.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#690

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dario Amodei and Eric Schmidt seem fairly well-calibrated, although a bit early. Elon Musk is constantly way, way overoptimistic (perhaps to the point of willful fraud). Zitron is hopelessly and ridiculously incompetent (and there are allegations he is willfully lying, too, but who knows).

The AGI that appeared mid 2023 and killed single every person in 8 months was neat!

Did Dario Amodei say that?
Post reply on HN