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How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

danluu.com

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Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI companies will never go to zero because AI is part of the Military Industrial Complex now. All the money is coming from the military and government for surveillance and power and war.

Every conspiracy theory has an escape hatch

It’s the moon-leopards in league with the bee-people. Only an IDIOT wouldn’t know this, it’s OBVIOUS.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being early is being wrong.

Being wrong about when a financial bubble will burst is different than being wrong that there is a financial bubble. That's the question, because if AI is driving a bubble, then it will burst at some point.

[deleted]

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#633
post #575

This critique is leaning really hard on their interpretation of "dying". They take the literal company is going to fail type of dying where as I have always taken it the same way he has presented it in his "rot-economy" context. They can remain financially "successful", but more and more people hate their products, their products are getting worse, their products are "dying". Google Search is still a good example, th…

If many people hated their products, they wouldn't use them. If they didn't use them they would not be financially successful. Google is not dying just because you personally have a feeling the results are worse than before and there is no definition of dying that would be consistent with Google's current state. If Google were to die they would die the way Yahoo did, because a competitor was demonstrably better than…

GP said Google Search is dead, in a way, not Google itself. Google is just to an overwhelmingly part an ad business at this point. And people hate their annoying ads. So people hate Google search, and Google ads. Basically, the majority of what Google is.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#635
Ah well, people love hearing what fits their world view. So if you hate LLM assisted development or vibe coding, Ed is predicting the future you want ("Don't be afraid, it's going away soon!"). As with any sudden change, there are people that tap the brake instinctively. And people like Ed thus get popular.

That, and he has a nice way of speaking like everyone's gone mad but you and him ;) Have to admit I have enjoyed his rants, and there are certainly true things about them, here's another nice one for you lovers and haters alike! [0]

[0] https://www.linkedin.com/embed/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:74...

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#636
post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If many people hated their products, they wouldn't use them. If they didn't use them they would not be financially successful. Google is not dying just because you personally have a feeling the results are worse than before and there is no definition of dying that would be consistent with Google's current state. If Google were to die they would die the way Yahoo did, because a competitor was demonstrably better than…

> If many people hated their products, they wouldn't use them This might be true in a true, free market without monopolistic collusion and the abandonment of antitrust regulation and enforcement in the US. In many cases people don’t switch to something else because there isn’t an alternative. Or because they don’t know how to change the defaults that come installed on their computer. Or they get a big scary warning i…

The top people at these companies don't spend all day building useful products, they have entire teams of people working strategy and looking at numbers to ensure their foothold in the various markets stays air tight and free of any real competition. The simplest example of this is the "switch your search engine back to Google" pop-up that effectively encourages users to switch back to Google if their default search engine changed via installing an extension.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#637
post #582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must not talk to a lot of retired people, for whom every tech product is a bewildering nightmare.

They're the ones who are dying. Gen Z grew up on the cloud

> Gen Z grew up on the cloud

That's why many are tech illiterates and don't know what folders and files are.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#639

Looking at the refutations of Zitrons predictions in TFA, it boils down to two categories: 1. Zitron claims model capability has peaked 2. Zitron claims AI lab growth (user and revenue) has stalled. In the first case, TFA refutes by claiming 'wrong' repeatedly, which does not convince me of anything. If anything, Zitron is probably right in this regard, since the majority of progress in recent LLM tech has been setti…

> In the first case, TFA refutes by claiming 'wrong' repeatedly, which does not convince me of anything. If anything, Zitron is probably right in this regard, since the majority of progress in recent LLM tech has been setting up of guardrails to cajole the models using 'agents'.

You don't have to like them, use them, or consider them "good enough", but the idea that models haven't gotten better in the last two years is ridiculous.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#640
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We have people telling us the next recession being imminent all the time. Yeah uhm so I'm not sure if you've like seen the world recently, but uh. Yea

S&P 500 - All time high DJIA - All time high Unemployment rate - Near all time low (for last 20 years) Number of US small businesses - All time high US GDP - All time high [Sources] https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une... https://www.sellerscommerce.com/blog/small-business-statisti... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

You know what they say, what goes up must continue to go up forever
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