Earlier quoted context omitted.
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If you find derision and extreme cynicism "soothing", the problem may be with you, rather than those who are optimistic about AI.
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How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
351–360 of 1001 posts
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#352I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…
Man, as a former extreme skeptic, I watched a video from Eric Schmidt in early 2025 where he said that by the end of the year nobody would be coding, and that one was dead frickin on.
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Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#353I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…
To be fair, Zitron's career is as a commentator. To some extent, I expect CEOs of companies to make ridiculous claims. At the end of the day, when shareholders come knocking, what they care about is whether or not your company is growing.
No such mechanism for social media personalities. You can be wrong 90% of the time, and your audience will still praise you for the 10% of the time you were right.
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#354Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think one important distinction is at least they have some humility to admit they were wrong. I think Ed Zitron has rarely, if ever acknowledged he was wrong.
> I think one important distinction is at least they have some humility to admit they were wrong. I'd be amazed to see a source proving that statement. There's never been a retraction around the AGI claims for example as far as I'm aware.
I can't find a counter to every statement they have made and not sure about your specific AGI claim but.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QMhtTO3u61A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_ueDUrkOlQ
Examples of acknowledging he was wrong
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#355> Among programmers and other serious users of AI, I would guess that Willison has a larger audience than Zitron.
You don't say.
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#356I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…
To be fair, Zitron's career is as a commentator. To some extent, I expect CEOs of companies to make ridiculous claims. At the end of the day, when shareholders come knocking, what they care about is whether or not your company is growing. No such mechanism for social media personalities. You can be wrong 90% of the time, and your audience will still praise you for the 10% of the time you were right.
CEOs and leaders used to trade on credibility.
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#357Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humility? I don't think they know what the word means let alone possess the capacity to demonstrate it.
Altman has admitted that some things are taking longer than he expected, and has walked one or two things back (usually to keep people from throwing bombs at his house, but still...) Zitron continues to boast of a predictive record entirely unblemished by accuracy.
When Altman “admits” things it seems more manipulative than humility
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#358I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…
Man, as a former extreme skeptic, I watched a video from Eric Schmidt in early 2025 where he said that by the end of the year nobody would be coding, and that one was dead frickin on.
You may be living in a bubble. There are tons of developers still coding by hand, and many industries that don't trust machine generated code in general.
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#359He is a bit more of a PR person rage-farming disguised as a futurist. He's not optimizing for correct predictions. That's really hard and not his incentive. Look at his incentives. It makes more sense.
There's a demand for loud and confident "AI tech will fail" and "big tech will fail", so it pays to peddle the goods.
A lot of people desperately want AI to be a nothingburger. Thus, they will seek a second opinion that just so happens to line up with their existing one. Wishful thinking at its finest.
Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
#360Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think one important distinction is at least they have some humility to admit they were wrong. I think Ed Zitron has rarely, if ever acknowledged he was wrong.
I actually think you’ve got it backwards I think one of Zitron’s problems is that his moral righteousness has blinded him to how embarrassingly incorrect he is about the AI space. It’s similarly hubristic with the benefit of shielding from his adversarial framing.
I see this so much. "This shouldn't work, therefore it won't work." It's like the world is imagined to run on a moral causal framework rather than uncaring quantum mechanics.