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How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

danluu.com

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Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#321

Post by comfysocks »

ant_li0n wrote: post #188
maxglute wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? AFAIK, his arguments based around the economics remains the same, he just seems increasingly dramatic and exacerbated, which is understandable when you realize industry + ecosystem (politics/reporting) is tulip mania delulu and insists 1+1=100, or 30 trillion, or whatever. His position isn't based on AI progress - it's based on AI economics, at this point he can be an obnoxious rationalist slamming flat earthers…

(edited to remove snark) Your comment seems to miss the point that the article does not (necessarily) have a problem with Zitron being insufferable/annoying/smug. It's that his predictions are verifiably wrong. It's one thing to be annoying and right. Zitron is annoying, but not right.

To be fair to Ed, I’d describe his usual argument (at least currently) as saying that Meta, MS, google are “mature” companies trying to be maintain the high valuations and growth of a young company, which they no longer are.

If you take this to be his argument, then dan’s numbers are more consistent ed’s claim.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#322

Post by achompas »

sarjann wrote: post #297
solid_fuel wrote: post #280

I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…

I think one important distinction is at least they have some humility to admit they were wrong. I think Ed Zitron has rarely, if ever acknowledged he was wrong.

I actually think you’ve got it backwards

I think one of Zitron’s problems is that his moral righteousness has blinded him to how embarrassingly incorrect he is about the AI space.

It’s similarly hubristic with the benefit of shielding from his adversarial framing.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#323

Post by u1hcw9nx »

swiftcoder wrote: post #74

> Given how fast these companies are growing (in terms of revenue and profit), it doesn't seem that AI is, as Zitron implied, some kind of desperation move they're reaching for because "they don't know how to grow" and are all out of ideas Growth isn't a valid rebuttal, unless we can also sus out how much of that growth is tied up in circular financing of AI projects. We have a pretty good idea how much of Nvidia's v…

You are confusing Capex and revenue.

The predictions were predictions of revenue. Circular financing of AI projects does not create revenue for OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, or Google. Only Nvidia benefits from it.

Predicting revenue growth will stall and it does not was wrong.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#324

Post by jongjong »

hajile wrote: post #263
gryfft wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the saying goes: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

The markets may not be claiming a recession, but the real world certainly is.

I feel like I've been in a recession economy since the day I entered the workforce 14 years ago. The movement of the stock market has had no effect on my reality. It's like two different universes inhabited by two different sets of people.

IMO, all the narratives we were exposed to around privilege before and after COVID were a cover up of this fact that we have a two-class system which is explicitly creating this condition. The issue is at the system design level and goes far beyond "technology putting people out of a job". The privilege narrative was classic communist-style "accuse your enemy of what you're doing yourself." It was literally the privileged few preemptively accusing the unprivileged masses of being unfairly privileged in order to take control that narrative before it was used on them.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#325

Post by greekrich92 »

sarjann wrote: post #297
solid_fuel wrote: post #280

I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…

I think one important distinction is at least they have some humility to admit they were wrong. I think Ed Zitron has rarely, if ever acknowledged he was wrong.

Humility? I don't think they know what the word means let alone possess the capacity to demonstrate it.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#326

Post by minimaxir »

zmmmmm wrote: post #268

Obviously Ed is a special case, but let's be honest, pretty much anybody telling you they can predict the future is selling you BS. And that includes all the people confidently predicting he was wrong. The actual situation is, there are genuine unknowns driving things with significant influence, and nobody actually knows what is going to happen. At best, people can talk about risks and likelihoods of outcomes.

This submission has citations on where he was wrong, they aren't predictions.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#327

Post by iLoveOncall »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #300

I was skeptical of LLMs making it to where we have them today, but the test results are evident, empirical, and hold up to hard scrutiny. I remain quite skeptical of a singularity event, GAI, and anything beyond what we've seen LLMs output today. It will get faster, cheaper, but not much smarter without another breakthrough. They will not be able to save the planet from their own pollution and overconsumption.

> but the test results are evident, empirical, and hold up to hard scrutiny

Sorry which test results? The gamed benchmarks?

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#328

Post by only-one1701 »

achompas wrote: post #315
solid_fuel wrote: post #280

I would be interested in seeing a similar list of predictions from Altman, Amodei, etc with annotations about how many have come true. Ed Zitron is a blow hard and frequently overstates things to the point where it is hard to take seriously, but so are the AI industry leaders. I have heard multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" and that people not using th…

But I think anyone who evaluates their claims understands that they’re talking their own books. Zitron’s problems are more subtle. He benefits financially from his own claims, while also touting his impartiality and capacity for objective thought.

A person savvy enough to understand the indirect financial benefit to Dario promising that Claude is so dangerously smart it must be regulated understands Zitron’s schtick

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#329

Post by mark_l_watson »

minimaxir wrote: post #221
VCFundedGenYer wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? He's been pretty spot on.

This very submission is about cases where Ed has not been pretty spot on.

but the article cherry picks. the article ignores Zitron’s economic arguments about data center costs vs. future profite.

Re: How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?

#330

Post by CamperBob2 »

greekrich92 wrote: post #325
sarjann wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one important distinction is at least they have some humility to admit they were wrong. I think Ed Zitron has rarely, if ever acknowledged he was wrong.

Humility? I don't think they know what the word means let alone possess the capacity to demonstrate it.

Altman has admitted that some things are taking longer than he expected, and has walked one or two things back (usually to keep people from throwing bombs at his house, but still...)

Zitron continues to boast of a predictive record entirely unblemished by accuracy.

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