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GPU World

gpuworld.org

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Re: GPU World

#111

Post by maxnevermind »

falcor84 wrote: post #98
maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

> it is impossible to describe the universe and compress it into few terabytes Why? I'm not an expert, but from my understanding, there say species that function well in their ecological niches with significantly smaller cognitive capacities. And we already have autonomous cars and drones navigate and function reasonably well. So I don't see any reason to believe it's impossible. And even if terabytes aren't sufficie…

> there say species that function well in their ecological niches with significantly smaller cognitive capacities

Yes, but LLMs are not animals, animals learn from experience and LLMs don't.

Btw I meant bigger and bigger amount of data of extracted reasoning chains when you go deeper and generate more and more of them in your attempt to describe the universe, the amount of permutations explodes. And it seems LLMs can't workaround that because they don't build world model inside so they can't deduct it from pre-built world/object model, they must memorize it and look it up later.

Re: GPU World

#112

Post by alexashka »

toyg wrote: post #75
rbanffy wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people still go to work every day, inequality still exists, as does famine, disease, wars… Our cars are cleaner, our phones are much better, our TVs much lighter and bigger.

Life in Asia and Africa has changed pretty dramatically, and improvements are accelerating. Yeah, we're not in utopia yet, but more people than ever live comfortable, safe lives. "Business at the speed of light" has become a reality, and we're still getting to grips with it. We dealt with a global pandemic with an efficiency never seen before - had it happened in the previous century, we would have probably seen "bla…

The fertility rate in China is 1.

The fertility rate where I live is 1.21.

1 in 5 adult women where I live are on prescription anti-depressant medication.

For comparison - the fertility rate under Stalin - the uber evil bad guy as we all know was between 3 and 4.5.

Re: GPU World

#113

Post by Synaesthesia »

adventured wrote: post #67

We already know the answer, it's identical to the answer for: what if everybody had UBI. Most of the population wouldn't do anything with it. They got 5g mainframes in the palm of their hands and they watch sports, play Candy Crush or doom scroll TikTok. We know what they do with their spare time and we've known for generations. See: decades past + TV viewing time. Swap TV viewing time for TikTok et al. They get GPT…

There have been studied and experiments with UBI which contradict what you say.

Re: GPU World

#114

Post by entropy47 »

roel_v wrote: post #109
maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

This take is unfathomable to me. How are LLMs not massively revolutionary, despite them not being infallible? This comment reminds me of there being competitions for finding useful purposes for electricity when it was first discovered. Imagine talking about the usefulness of LLMs while thinking that LLMs in 2026 just compress a few TB of data into a set of weights and that's all they work with lol.

Whichever side of the divide you're on, I think it's really weird that on a site like HN (where people have at least a passing familiarity with technology) there are such polarised takes on whether it's the next industrial revolution, or a technological parlour trick.

I'm giving away which side I'm on now, but most of the TAM have experienced the product at this point, and trillions of dollars have been invested. I would wager most other revolutionary technologies found their game changing, broad reaching applications by this point.

Re: GPU World

#115

Post by bbmatryoshka »

onion2k wrote: post #110
maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

agent's failures on long horizon tasks We've moved from LLMs being able to work on a task for about 2 minutes to about 2 hours in the last 18 months, and that's mostly limited by the context window size filling up. In 14 years time I don't really see a reason why that wouldn't have extended a time frame that's effectively continuous forever, or at least a ceiling that's indistinguishable from that. The question reall…

2 hours... of agent work, usually for the same output the average worker has to use much more time

Re: GPU World

#116

Post by FinnKuhn »

onion2k wrote: post #110
maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

agent's failures on long horizon tasks We've moved from LLMs being able to work on a task for about 2 minutes to about 2 hours in the last 18 months, and that's mostly limited by the context window size filling up. In 14 years time I don't really see a reason why that wouldn't have extended a time frame that's effectively continuous forever, or at least a ceiling that's indistinguishable from that. The question reall…

  I do not think agents need to work continuously. They "just"
  need to work on a project longer than an employee is able to
  work on it for them to be commercially useful. Although this
  does not consider that agents might take a shorter or longer
  amount of time for the same task. Therefore, we should begin
  to compare these in tasks completed during that time instead.

Re: GPU World

#117

Post by bbmatryoshka »

alexashka wrote: post #112
toyg wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life in Asia and Africa has changed pretty dramatically, and improvements are accelerating. Yeah, we're not in utopia yet, but more people than ever live comfortable, safe lives. "Business at the speed of light" has become a reality, and we're still getting to grips with it. We dealt with a global pandemic with an efficiency never seen before - had it happened in the previous century, we would have probably seen "bla…

The fertility rate in China is 1. The fertility rate where I live is 1.21. 1 in 5 adult women where I live are on prescription anti-depressant medication. For comparison - the fertility rate under Stalin - the uber evil bad guy as we all know was between 3 and 4.5.

fertility is NOT a measure of happiness

Re: GPU World

#118

Post by alexashka »

bbmatryoshka wrote: post #117
alexashka wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fertility rate in China is 1. The fertility rate where I live is 1.21. 1 in 5 adult women where I live are on prescription anti-depressant medication. For comparison - the fertility rate under Stalin - the uber evil bad guy as we all know was between 3 and 4.5.

fertility is NOT a measure of happiness

Name one species that is happy whilst rapidly going extinct.

Re: GPU World

#119

Post by maxnevermind »

embedding-shape wrote: post #104
maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

> LLMs gave us nice productivity tools for highly motivated expert knowledge workers, that is all. I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things. It's also at the same time downplaying just how valuable "nice productivity tools for highly motivated e…

> I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.

We are not people who write newspapers we are people who are directly involved in application of the technology, we posses a higher level of insight.

> I feel like this is incredibly simplistic, and if you changed "LLM" to "computer" or "internet" and went back decades, it's highly likely you'd read the exact same takes in the newspaper back then about those things.

Computers, the Internet, Steam engine, Rail roads are much more reliable. If you were a problem solver and entrepreneur you could go and apply those on small scale, get profits, reinvest, set up a flywheel, build a fortune on the top of those, there were a lot of low hanging fruit due to the fact that the foundation was laid out, a break-even period of James Watt steam engine was like 2-3 years I believe until everyone saw it and margins flattened. Can you do that with LLMs? It doesn't look that way.

Re: GPU World

#120

Post by smusamashah »

maxnevermind wrote: post #77

> Someday, such as in 2040, there may be available, for every human being, the performance equivalent of 'a B300 GPU for contemporary LLMs'. What would this world be like? If we talk about just LLMs, given how things have been going since ChatGPT, my bet it would not change that much. LLMs are not foundational technology such as Internet or Steam engine or Rail roads were. There are very few products that can build u…

Computers were made and automated lots of work, even though it was still us operating those computers and making and running those automations. But eventually computers took over and running so much of the world.

Now LLMs are automating the computers themselves. This is a whole new layer that we never had before, not in this amount or with this much availability. It is not "not foundational".

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