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The safest job from AI may be writing

muratbuffalo.blogspot.com

151–160 of 223 posts

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The business-building is not zero sum, but the trading is zero-sum, and the societal purpose of the thing is to provide liquidity

theoretically equity trading is about distributing stonks most optimally so that productive companies get more and less productive ones get less, improving productivity of society as a whole

We all know it hasn’t actually been about that for a long time.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#152

No. Below is my emotional opinion based on my own experience: Currently the models are totally helpless with plot and emotions. They make epistemic, logistical and temporal mistakes. But: They are very good in finding _your_ epistemic, logistical and temporal mistakes. They are great as adversarial reviewers. They can validate grounding. They can test voices. They can build complex parallel reconstructions representi…

If it will be true, then we should have many superb books by new authors at this point. But we do not. This is similar to observations that effect of AI on quality of apps in stores is mostly non-existent.

Neither book stores nor app stores pay for quality, beyond some minimum low bar. Markets are optimized for getting product out quickly, sales and marketing, and follow on effects of succeeding with a hit. If you made a better app, game, book, or song you need to get through the noise of millions of competitors and for the most part, it's never going to happen.

In short, the expected effect of AI will be more stuff, faster, not better. Are we seeing that? I think so.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#153

I strongly disagree, for reasons that are different from what's discussed in the thread. It doesn't matter if LLMs can't hold a candle to some of the finest human writing. What matters is that before you become a world-renowned writer, you need to pay your bills, often for a long time. And that's what LLMs take away. All the mundane literature-adjacent works: journalism, translations, technical writing / corporate co…

Totally agree. LLMs are taking over everything related to intellectual work and work in general. But that doesn’t mean people will have nothing to do.

The show will go on and humanity will probably split into those who work deeply with AI and create an AI economy, where AIs develop and interact with each other (much like cloud systems do today) and a human world where people compete with other people both in art and in sports with the best receiving rewards and recognition from other humans.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#155
AI writing is soooo annoying. It's always way too long and way too "serious" for what ultimately is almost always a really dumb point. There is no calibration to the seriousness of the topic or thesis against the actual length of the writing. It's insufferably pompous. Will it get better? Probably.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#156
post #150

I strongly disagree, for reasons that are different from what's discussed in the thread. It doesn't matter if LLMs can't hold a candle to some of the finest human writing. What matters is that before you become a world-renowned writer, you need to pay your bills, often for a long time. And that's what LLMs take away. All the mundane literature-adjacent works: journalism, translations, technical writing / corporate co…

I also disagree with the author. The first careers I witnessed being negatively impacted by AI coming onto the scene .. just a couple years ago .. was tech writers. Source: my personal network of tech writer colleagues.

Have seen the same thing happen to literary translator friends. Barring the very rare few who broke through to international fame via well-known literary award, the rest were largely sustaining themselves with more mundane business translations and that work is ended.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#157
post #150

I strongly disagree, for reasons that are different from what's discussed in the thread. It doesn't matter if LLMs can't hold a candle to some of the finest human writing. What matters is that before you become a world-renowned writer, you need to pay your bills, often for a long time. And that's what LLMs take away. All the mundane literature-adjacent works: journalism, translations, technical writing / corporate co…

I also disagree with the author. The first careers I witnessed being negatively impacted by AI coming onto the scene .. just a couple years ago .. was tech writers. Source: my personal network of tech writer colleagues.

tech writers disrupted by AI a couple of years ago? Seems very dubious. A couple of years ago, AI was terrible at writing anything.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#158
post #52
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM prose has degraded with each model update, the models are now being RL'd into wall of texts that only makes sense to other agents. I think its going to become more obvious as we move forward that is llm generated because labs seem to only be focused on tool-calling/agentic-coding environments, as that's the only thing that drives revenue. There may come players who focus on models that are good at writing for tec…

Yeah, this tracks with my experiments. About every 6 months or so for the past year-and-a-half I've tried using the "frontier" LLMs to as-near-as-possible autonomously write novel length stories, because I find it fascinating. When I had Gemini 2.5 write a novel, it wasn't really objectively "good" by any stretch of the imagination, but while the prose was very purple and full of cliches and, well, bad writing I gues…

The entire output of an LLM is also part of its input. Appending to long stretches of LLM-generated text, it will continue to get more and more robotic as the style of the input gets replicated and enhanced in the output.

It's possible to work around by generating short passages at a time with carefully constructed setup. But it's a real pain.

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#159

I strongly disagree, for reasons that are different from what's discussed in the thread. It doesn't matter if LLMs can't hold a candle to some of the finest human writing. What matters is that before you become a world-renowned writer, you need to pay your bills, often for a long time. And that's what LLMs take away. All the mundane literature-adjacent works: journalism, translations, technical writing / corporate co…

AI will definitely not take over translation for a long time. Machine translation has improved to the point it's mostly no longer incoherent, but for non-formulaic content it's still very hit-and-miss, not that much better compared to 10-20 years ago. For example, something they still struggle with is consistently translating terms coined within the text with consistent phrases.

>A budding painter or a musician could support themselves off commissioned / commercial work while working on their grand opus... but now, the customers just prompt gen AI.

Are you joking? The only people I see using generative AI are either companies, shitposters, and spammers. Who are all these people who have stopped paying commissions and moved over to prompting AIs?

Re: The safest job from AI may be writing

#160

People seem to have very short memories. LLMs are easily capable of good writing. The fact that they are loaded up with obvious "tells" now is quite a recent development. One year ago, the writer Mark Lawrence posted an article [0] (featured on HN) describing how he generated 4 pieces of flash fiction with ChatGPT, asked 4 published authors (with a combined book sales of $15M) to also write a flash fiction piece, and…

This is something that constantly gets missed by HN in discussions about AI in the arts. There's the quality of the output and the essence behind the art itself. Humans want both [1][2] but these models only provide an output. Could ChatGPT output the next IT or Lord of the Rings , probably. However, once it's understood that it wasn't written by a human it loses all value. I use this quote by Kane Parsons a lot but…

I largely agree with your take on the subjective value of writing that I happen to know was generated by a machine, but that is not at all what I'm talking about here. I'm responding to the specific claim in TFA that LLMs produce low-quality output, detectable independently of whether the reader knows how it was produced:

> I am appalled at the absolute shit [LLMs] spew as prose. They always follow the same robotic cadence and cliches, and sprinkle the same tired vocabulary all around.

This claim is demonstrably untrue, and central to the author's overall thesis.

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