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Marx, Keynes, and AI

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Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#11

Post by schmidtleonard »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #7

U.S. unemployment rate is steady at ~4% and we are now almost 4 years after the release of ChatGPT. The Jobs Apocalypse seems to be always on the horizon. UBI is being pushed by college educated workers burnt out of white collar work (understandably), but when you suggest to them working construction, teaching school, or working in a hospital, they deflect and go quiet.

No, that's not the usual response, because people in this situation have evaluated those alternatives and will be easily able to articulate what is wrong with them (pay). Also, the 4% figure treats doordash as employment. In a parallel universe where the pay was decent, that could be reasonable. In this universe, not so much.

These are boomer-tier talking points and if you bring them up to a kid stuck in this position you will get dunked on and you will deserve it. Unless you found a shy kid, in which case: congratulations on your new title as undefeated shadowboxing champion.

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#12

Post by alnxdrawr »

pasquinelli wrote: post #3

i'm sure it's meant in some kind of technical sense that is precisely defined in the field of economics, but this use of the word "rational" is irritating: > This demand externality traps rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. you can't be trapped in a sub-optimal situation and be rational at the same time. the rational thing for these rational competit…

It's rational at the individual level, irrational at the group level.

The issue is you can't easily enforce cooperation without some external overarching force (e.g. regulation), especially across competing powers.

Refer to nuclear arms race in general. A specific example on why not to be the only one to cooperate: Ukraine gave up nukes in order to push for group level rationality, gets walked over as an individual. Oversimplifying, but yeah that's the rough point.

Meditations on Moloch is a favourite of mine on this (albeit very depressing): https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Meditations-On-Moloch

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#13

Post by random3 »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #7

U.S. unemployment rate is steady at ~4% and we are now almost 4 years after the release of ChatGPT. The Jobs Apocalypse seems to be always on the horizon. UBI is being pushed by college educated workers burnt out of white collar work (understandably), but when you suggest to them working construction, teaching school, or working in a hospital, they deflect and go quiet.

your argument suggests there's an opportunity for a trading strategy. It's also very common as a "technical analysis" investment strategy for any gullible person on the internet.

The problem is it looks "backwards" and tries to make the point something (in this case the argument made in the paper) is false because the backwards data doesn't support it. All while completely failing to address the crux of the point being made.

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#14

Post by oulipo »

pasquinelli wrote: post #3

i'm sure it's meant in some kind of technical sense that is precisely defined in the field of economics, but this use of the word "rational" is irritating: > This demand externality traps rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. you can't be trapped in a sub-optimal situation and be rational at the same time. the rational thing for these rational competit…

You can... check tragedy of the commons, and prisoners' dilemma

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#15

Post by deaton »

pasquinelli wrote: post #3

i'm sure it's meant in some kind of technical sense that is precisely defined in the field of economics, but this use of the word "rational" is irritating: > This demand externality traps rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. you can't be trapped in a sub-optimal situation and be rational at the same time. the rational thing for these rational competit…

Remember when the buttons test was circulating a few months ago? Where if you press the red button, you survive, but if you press the blue button, unless more than 50% of people chose the blue button you die? That was a case very similar to this. It is locally optimal for everyone to choose red; your own outcome is always better or equal to what it would have been if you chose blue, however everyone independently making this optimal choice is catastrophic on a global scale. Thats why its "rational".

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#16

Post by moffers »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #7

U.S. unemployment rate is steady at ~4% and we are now almost 4 years after the release of ChatGPT. The Jobs Apocalypse seems to be always on the horizon. UBI is being pushed by college educated workers burnt out of white collar work (understandably), but when you suggest to them working construction, teaching school, or working in a hospital, they deflect and go quiet.

But total unemployment is going up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#17

Post by ikrenji »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #7

U.S. unemployment rate is steady at ~4% and we are now almost 4 years after the release of ChatGPT. The Jobs Apocalypse seems to be always on the horizon. UBI is being pushed by college educated workers burnt out of white collar work (understandably), but when you suggest to them working construction, teaching school, or working in a hospital, they deflect and go quiet.

by some measures unemployment is at 25% and this aligns with my personal experience much better than frankly the bs 4% rate that is being pushed by this admin

https://www.lisep.org/tru

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#18

Post by jaggederest »

alnxdrawr wrote: post #12
pasquinelli wrote: post #3

i'm sure it's meant in some kind of technical sense that is precisely defined in the field of economics, but this use of the word "rational" is irritating: > This demand externality traps rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. you can't be trapped in a sub-optimal situation and be rational at the same time. the rational thing for these rational competit…

It's rational at the individual level, irrational at the group level. The issue is you can't easily enforce cooperation without some external overarching force (e.g. regulation), especially across competing powers. Refer to nuclear arms race in general. A specific example on why not to be the only one to cooperate: Ukraine gave up nukes in order to push for group level rationality, gets walked over as an individual.…

Something in the ballpark of a Nash equilibrium. Kinda amazing how often you run into those things, in situations like groupthink.

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#19

Post by [deleted] »

pasquinelli wrote: post #3

i'm sure it's meant in some kind of technical sense that is precisely defined in the field of economics, but this use of the word "rational" is irritating: > This demand externality traps rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. you can't be trapped in a sub-optimal situation and be rational at the same time. the rational thing for these rational competit…

[deleted]

Re: Marx, Keynes, and AI

#20

Post by watwut »

nateb2022 wrote: post #8
watwut wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the alarmist writing I see about AI displacing workers or suddenly and drastically changing the economy ... are from pro-ai boosters trying to create hype around AI. They are not criticism of ai, they are openly stated goals and aspirations.

There's a lot of that type of slop on LinkedIn (with accompanying slop comments) but they're not taken anywhere as seriously as the more thoughtful blog posts like this Also in technical circles, we're pretty aware of the marketing/self-promotional nuance of the "our AI accidentally hacked X company" type of press releases, which perhaps the general public may not take with as large a grain of salt

I dont read linkedin. I was not referencing linkedin. Among other sources, the primary one is literally AI companies themselves. And people close to them.

The "it will replace workers" is pro-ai talking and selling point.

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