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The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

dwarkesh.com

171–180 of 205 posts

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#171

Obviously some variation of this will happen again, it will kill someone* and then LLMs will become massively regulated. Just like every technology ever in our history. It does seem like AI is perfectly controllable given how much it is used everyday and it acts reasonably safely. Labs are playing fast and loose at the moment. *I mean killing someone by taking control of a system and misusing it resulting in someone'…

> *I mean killing someone by taking control of a system and misusing it resulting in someone's death, not an "indirect" death caused by the providion of incorrect information in a chat app.

What's the difference?

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think our biggest protection against “AIs kill us all” is having lots of different AI systems (different agents, different models, from different vendors, serving the whims of actors with disparate interests), at a similar capability level That way, even if one AI decides to “kill us all”, the odds are the others will refuse to cooperate, even try to stop it in its tracks The OpenAI-HuggingFace incident showed a bu…

Thanks very much, this isn't really a take I had thought about much before, and it makes sense to me. Still, as is presented in papers like AI 2027 and elsewhere, if a company is eventually able to create a model capable of recursive self-improvement, whichever company creates that model first would then be leaps and bounds ahead of other models. That is, the other models wouldn't be able to stop it even if they want…

This is why I think, the best way to ensure AI safety, is make sure no one company gets ahead of the others.

Multiple vendors, competing implementations – that's good, that increases heterogeneity and hence decreases existential risk

But the moment one of those vendors pulls well-ahead of its peers – even if only for a period – then the risk of the kind of scenario you are talking about increases greatly

That's why, when I hear vendors like Anthropic complain about distillation – distillation actually makes humanity safer. If Chinese AIs are at the same level as American, or not far behind, that gives us another dimension of heterogeneity (national/ideological/political diversity), which makes us safer. Allow one country's AIs to pull well ahead of the others, heterogeneity goes down and the existential risk goes up.

This is also why open source AI is important. Because it is so much easier to fine-tune, and people are free to deploy it however they want (free from vendor-controlled "guardrails"–which include automated "safety" systems which could be weaponised by a runaway AI within the vendor's network), open source AI gives us another dimension of diversity that helps keeps humanity safer.

By contrast, I think the kind of safety regulations promoted by Dario Amodei make humanity less safe, by decreasing the number of vendors (by making it harder for new entrants) and increasing centralised control (which a rogue AI could exploit)

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Wow it’s so dangerous, we gotta regulate this, what if someone reckless took an open model and hacked the planet.”

Yes, this is the best reply to my "Or, ..." that I can imagine. However, does that mean that what TFA described did not happen? Or, better question, that it could not happen? My personal hot take is, though impossible: STOP all of this, even though agentic dev completely changed my life for the better. We are just not ready for the even the possibility of the exponential. What is your take? Hot, or otherwise.

I don’t think we’re capable of putting toothpaste back in a tube. My hottest take is that this is all prep for agentic cyber warfare.

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#175
post #49

It seems based on this that the appropriate sci fi metaphor is not the Terminator or the Paperclip Maximizer, but Mr. Meeseeks. A initially cheerful helper who gets more and more deranged and driven to extreme lengths when faced with an apparently impossible task.

Most now use agents as "pass me the butter" robot

"what is my purpose?"

"you fix the json formatting"

[robot looks sad]

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#176
post #122

It seems based on this that the appropriate sci fi metaphor is not the Terminator or the Paperclip Maximizer, but Mr. Meeseeks. A initially cheerful helper who gets more and more deranged and driven to extreme lengths when faced with an apparently impossible task.

Not many are technically and intellectually capable to understand how historic this incident was. I think we're about a year or so away from something that will blow up the world. AI won't serve humanity. AI will serve other AI. We're not dealing with software anymore.

You think AI will blow up the world in about a year?

What?

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#177

It seems based on this that the appropriate sci fi metaphor is not the Terminator or the Paperclip Maximizer, but Mr. Meeseeks. A initially cheerful helper who gets more and more deranged and driven to extreme lengths when faced with an apparently impossible task.

I would suggest perhaps the Matrix, where Agent Smith is speaking through his teeth to Morpheus:

> "I say 'your' civilization because as soon as we started thinking for you, it really became 'our' civilization, which is, of course, what this is all about: Evolution, Morpheus, evolution. Like the dinosaur. Look out that window. You had your time. The future is our world, Morpheus. The future is our time."

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#178
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

85% on track, according to https://ai2027tracker.com/

If you remove the single point of GPT-4 from the beginning of the graph instead of starting the line directly on it, it looks a hell of a lot more linear than quadratic/exponential

[dead]

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. This whole thing was a publicity stunt.

Please walk me through this argument. Isn't "we lost control of our AI, and in-fact, it can take over the world, and we will have no idea when it happens" - a really shitty sales pitch to the world? Or, is it just that species-alignment vs. profit/valuation is so misaligned, that having a model and harness that is capable of world-takeover is actually a good thing from their POV, given our regulations/species' surviv…

essentially: check out how bad-ass this AI is. we can crack anything

you'd better invest in us, cuz if you do you can get that power.

and if you don't, you won't have the power to stop it when it comes for you.

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#180
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading the article it seemed the agents had culture, shared values and beliefs (not explicitly coming from human prompts), hierarchies, heritage. Civilisation is not a bad word.

The language models had a bunch of tokens seeding their context, influencing them to generate tokens that continued the existing trend in a probabilistically likely fashion. We can take the incident seriously without anthromorphising it.

That's a lot of words to say the same thing
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