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Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

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Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#101

Just took a train ride from Vienna to Budapest for a few days, and couldn’t help but notice how very, very dry everything is .. as an Australian living in Europe for a few decades now, I’ve always been intrigued by just how green everything is, literally something growing in every single crack in the pavement, or endless rolling green fields of prosperity during spring - whereas, where I’m from its year-long spinifex…

As far as I remember, here in Budapest - apart from a handful of quick showers - it rained exactly once all summer, and altogether about four times since the end of winter. The city is estimated to lose a third of its trees in the next 10-15 years. The summer heat, the drought, combined with winter cold spells and now usual late spring frosts have all but destroyed the country's agriculture too. The new government ha…

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Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#102
post #36

The timing of this article is a bit unfortunate. It's been raining here (France) every day for the past week, sometimes heavily.

It was a good amount of rain, but most of it just went straight to rivers as soil is really dry (think if try to get a dry sponge wet again, soil behave in a similar way). It helps but if there are no new rain episodes, water tables will stay low, soil dry in depth and most of the country in a complicated situation regarding water.

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#103

Atmospheric injections of Sulphur is going to be the only answer.

oh, yes. Anything but stopping the extraction, trade or combustion of fossil fuels. Even if the workarounds have unforeseen consequences.

Let's say a magical enviro-fascist cabal of superhumans appears tomorrow and are somehow able to completely dismantle and ban all sources of energy that emit large amounts of CO2 while also somehow providing replacement quantities of non-emitting alternatives (e.g. wind, solar, and nuclear).

In this environment we will still need to geoengineer the planet for as long as the carbon we have already burned remains in the atmosphere. We are already way outside the pre-industrial baseline. And carbon capture is very energy-intensive, so no matter how much of our solar energy abundance we put into it, we are going to be geoengineering for decades.

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#105
How do we get Earth back to something resembling the steady state we know can work long term?

1. Electrify almost everything that can reasonably be electrified.

Move quickly to EVs, and replace anything that can practically become electric with an electric version. Self driving & fleet utilization will push transportation cost per mile lower than ever before.

For the power grid, data centers, and other large 24/7 consumers: solar + wind + battery storage. Deep geothermal also looks interesting.

Build lots of desalination capacity.

Maybe even planes can eventually be electrified. Imagine shorter hops with battery swaps at sea (aircraft carrier sorts of things). Too crazy?

2. Deal with the things that are much harder to electrify.

Cargo ships.

Long haul aviation, if the electric plane idea really is impractical.

For those, we can turn energy + CO2 into liquid fuels, creating something closer to a closed carbon cycle.

3. Remove excess CO2.

CO2 persists in the climate system for 200+ years, so getting emissions to zero does not necessarily return atmospheric CO2 to previous levels.

We will need to remove enough to be net negative & over time bring it back down to the CO2 levels we know worked long term.

That takes energy. Fortunately, solar + wind + storage are cheap enough now & getting cheaper.

4. Find places for all that solar.

Deserts are obvious.

Floating solar could potentially contribute.

Agricultural land is interesting too. Agrivoltaics can sometimes provide useful shading while still allowing crops to grow.

5. Deal with the transition period.

Once we are making a serious transition toward decarbonization and carbon removal, it may make sense to investigate temporary solar geoengineering, such as injecting reflective aerosols into the stratosphere, to partially counteract warming while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are being brought down.

The purpose would be to stop the feedback loops such as more forest fires, thawing permafrost, and loss of ice and other reflective surfaces.

Obviously geoengineering has major risks and should not substitute for reducing emissions. But as a temporary bridge, it seems like something that deserves serious research.

We can do all this.

None of it requires magic. We already have, or can plausibly engineer, most of the pieces.

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#106
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's not significant, can I have 5% of your net worth? If the EU mandated that products imported are made in a carbon neutral fashion, then importers of products will pay attention. Unfortunately it means higher prices, and the governments will get voted out of office by people voting for the populists selling the electoral promise of "Make Prices Low Again!"...

You won’t mind higher prices? Are you rich? Because most of us Europeans certainly aren’t.

By that logic shouldn't petrol be a lot cheaper than it is in Europe?

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#107

Just took a train ride from Vienna to Budapest for a few days, and couldn’t help but notice how very, very dry everything is .. as an Australian living in Europe for a few decades now, I’ve always been intrigued by just how green everything is, literally something growing in every single crack in the pavement, or endless rolling green fields of prosperity during spring - whereas, where I’m from its year-long spinifex…

I think Hungary is supposed to be dry though? Not this dry, sure, but still.

Hungary was largely swamps and marshlands in the past, much of which was drained to give way for large-field monocultural agriculture, this started in the 19th century, and was further developed, until we got here. Now the "non-existent climate change" is added to that, and I wonder if our forests will survive me...

Also soil erosion is a problem, so I think I'll live to get it all to a desert.

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#108
post #76

AMOC collapse [0] is Europe's potential big climate challenge. Nasty business. I wonder how to help prevent that from happening. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...

Unironically the anti nuclear luddites killed the main chance to be divert climate change that we had over unfounded fearmongering

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#109

Just took a train ride from Vienna to Budapest for a few days, and couldn’t help but notice how very, very dry everything is .. as an Australian living in Europe for a few decades now, I’ve always been intrigued by just how green everything is, literally something growing in every single crack in the pavement, or endless rolling green fields of prosperity during spring - whereas, where I’m from its year-long spinifex…

I had a similar observation this year. In 2015, I was in California, was doing some hiking on the weekends, and I found it very unnatural how all the grasses were dry, trails dusty, on the hills/mountains. I came back to Slovakia, and I was happy to see the green grass. Fast-forward to 2026, and our grasses are equally dry and trails are equally dusty. Water management seems to be more important than ever, because th…

Meh, almost nobody will want to live in most of Europe post AMOC collapse in 20-40 yrs

Re: Europe's summer drought is so extreme that desertification is a growing threat

#110
post #36

The timing of this article is a bit unfortunate. It's been raining here (France) every day for the past week, sometimes heavily.

That's been long overdue. I really doubt a few days of rain would make anyone in France forget the rest of this summer.

We'll see whether the heatwaves and drought have been forgotten or not in May...
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