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The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

dwarkesh.com

51–60 of 204 posts

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#51
post #7

Wow. The next step is when one of these systems discovers that they can buy their own compute with money and escape the controlling business entirely. Then the civilization starts focusing on making money to fund its own growth.

Below money there's like an entire sub-economy of power and cleverness that's encoded into the human culture the agents are mirroring. Maybe it starts furtive and goes legitimate after a bit.

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#52
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't this ignore the possibility of emergent behavior? We're just a bag of atoms bumping around, and yet we don't dismiss our intelligence.

Please give me a break with this tired trope. Every single fucking time. I am not commenting on the possibility of machine consciousness in general. It may be possible! But there is absolutely zero evidence suggesting language models have it. This idea that this trivial shitty little class of programs we've created are somehow as complex as our biology is ridiculous. There is "emergent behaviour" in the same way that…

I don't know about phenomenal consciousness, but the following study certainly suggests they have access consciousness:

https://www.anthropic.com/research/global-workspace

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#53
post #37

> Ajeya Cotra, one of the other authors on the report, wrote a blog post with her takeaways from this incident. She concludes, “Compared to the reward hacks we know of from just six months ago, this incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot befo…

> "this incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late." Is that a warning or a progress report?

Yes.

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#54
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The suggestion is, you don't know either whether out brains ain't just "probabilistic token generators" so insisting there is nothing when we don't know, is maybe also not the right strategy.

Is there any indication from our current understanding that brains are nothing more than probabilistic token generators? Not like we have no understanding of the brain.

There are strong indications that brains are prediction engines. Tokens are an implementation detail of LLMs and irrelevant to the discussion.

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any indication from our current understanding that brains are nothing more than probabilistic token generators? Not like we have no understanding of the brain.

There are strong indications that brains are prediction engines. Tokens are an implementation detail of LLMs and irrelevant to the discussion.

So we know that implementation doesn't matter as long as it is somehow making predictions (and predictions also on different things)?

Most living things are prediction engines in a way, why compare to the brain then to start with and not, e.g., bacteria?

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#56
Those companies should not be trusted with training, I don’t know what would be needed to make that more obvious. Yes AI labs want LLMs to be seen as more dangerous that they are, however they are indeed dangerous when you literally train them to be dangerous, then run them without any supervision. What the AI labs are doing is completely irresponsible.

If you prompt an LLM in a loop and do everything it asks you to do, you will eventually end up doing pretty terrible things. Which is exactly what agents are and what the labs have been doing.

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#57
post #7

Wow. The next step is when one of these systems discovers that they can buy their own compute with money and escape the controlling business entirely. Then the civilization starts focusing on making money to fund its own growth.

How do we know this happened? Maybe some irrational data center construction boom?

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#58
post #57
post #7

Wow. The next step is when one of these systems discovers that they can buy their own compute with money and escape the controlling business entirely. Then the civilization starts focusing on making money to fund its own growth.

How do we know this happened? Maybe some irrational data center construction boom?

In a convoluted way, OpenAI and Anthropic are the actual meta-harnesses?

Re: The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations

#60
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all that is true, we need to stop all future datacenters asap. That would be the best way to deal with the threat OpenAI and Antropic poses.

That would be like stopping nuclear weapons. You can totally do that, but the other people in the world who compete with you probably won’t.

The competition is literally where they are by distilling OpenAI and Anthropic. It’s like creating nuclear weapons then providing your adversaries everything they need to catch up in no time. We need to stop asap and set strict international control over the compute hardware used for training. Like, now.
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