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Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

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Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#451
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So a Greek default would have created an EU political crisis. Greece would have been in the doghouse. Perhaps the other members would have suspended its structural funds, or even voting rights. Seems impossible it would have been thrown out of the EU, there's not even an obvious way to do that. All very unpleasant, but then there was clearly an upside for Greece. It just seems interesting that the scenario was never…

It was though? I remember a default being a real option in the media. But in the end, it was clear that unlike in Iceland, bankruptcies were not considerable, and so a bailout was going to happen. The only question was how the bailout would be structured. Yanis Varoufakis made his name back then by going against the grain and proposing a hairsplit, but instead an approach was chosen where Greece never really defaulte…

Indeed so: the term “Brexit” was a comical extension of the original “Grexit” at that time.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#452
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are approximately 874 days left in Donald Trump's presidential term as of August 29, 2026. That's if the bugger leaves office and doesn't start an insurrection like last time, and that the insurrection doesn't work like last time. Depends a lot on how much Americans actually want him gone, but alas you Americans seem to keep voting for him no matter how many corruption scandals he's in.

I think the majority of “you Americans” that you’re talking about aren’t on HN. The Americans actually on this platform probably have the same concerns you do.

Any time I try to engage with any American on Trump it's always the same "it wasn't me" spiel.

Is anyone over there taking responsibility?

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#453
post #251

So I support the general idea of European integration but boy are there some problems and certain industries or political groups punch way above their weight in terms of influencing these processes. For example, agriculture is a relatively small amount of the French economy but French farmers have outsized political impact on Frech and EU policy. Fisheries is another of those and we have several data points to show t…

> And unlike the 1970s, I don't see the EU expanding the EEA or EFTA ro accomodate Iceland.

Iceland is already a member of the EEA agreement, alongside Norway and a Liechtenstein [1]. As I have seen it, the EU have been quite friendly and accommodating towards the EEA countries.

Firstly, fishing is naturally an important issues for island nations and countries with a long coastline. Secondly, it is an important issue since it is one of the key industries that can sustain people in rural areas. So if you have a policy to promote people living in rural areas and prevent extreme urbanization, then fishing is one of if not the number one issue. So even if it's economic impact is minimal, it is an extremely important part of the overall political landscape for countries that want to sustain a independent food source and rural population.

But others have pointed out, the fishing rights have been largely bought up by a few wealthy people, so giving that up to EU does not matter that much to a lot of people anymore as the ones that owns it now are not liked and already run jt in a very EU like style, so there is not that much to loose, but a lot to gain. At least thats one prominent perspective.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#454

I run the count at one of the constituencies. We have about 42.000 people on the electoral register and we'll probably see about 75-80% turnout, so we're going to be counting about 33.000 votes with about 30-35 people on staff, 24 of them doing the actual counting. For the interest of the HN crowd, here is the technical report: You'll find that the Icelandic voting system is very low tech. The electoral registry for…

We should never allow digital voting ever. Machines should only be allowed to help count with the ability to hand count the paper. There are so many exploits and leverage for software/hardware in any system (even closed ones) that has to be updated every year. It becomes very very hard to create a million "passable" paper votes out of thin air. It is trivial to do with a digital system.

But then, in a country of 300 plus million people like the U.S., there is a demand for getting election results as soon as possible, because without quick results, it opens the window for bad actors to claim the election was rigged. That's part of the reason why there was a motivation for digital systems. Furthermore, the U.S. In particular does a lot more than just voting for candidates. Often the ballots have referendum questions on them. There's so much voting happening that some localities vote for some of the smallest positions. I wouldnt be surprised if dogcatcher was on a ballot somewhere. As a result, the ballot size can be multiple pages in length, which just increases the amount of effort required to tally it. With the demand for very quick results, computerization naturally emerged.

I'm not sure if you are U.S. based or not, but if not, you need to understand the context as to why that system came to be. It wasn't all just nefarious. Voting intregity activists have argued for a two way verification system. Having paper ballots to provide a record that can be audited, as well as digital input so that you can achieve the goals of quick results. Obviously, two verification steps need to occur.

After the 2016 election, a lot of activists started pushing for each state to adopt this sort of system. In my particular state, NJ there used to be only electronic recording to a memory card which obviously can be tampered with. Now they have systems where you still input the votes digitally on a giant touchpad, but as soon as you make your selections, the choices you made are printed on paper and shown to you. Once you confirm that they are the selections you made, the paper is cut and dropped into a ballot box, giving you a paper record plus the digital copy.

The thing that NJ has not fully implemented is automatic two way verification. From my understading as of now results are still digitally tallied. I think Colorado has done in interesting process of mandatory risk limiting audits of the paper ballots to ensure no anamolies are present else the results are recounted manually. The problem with not doing some sort of two way verification is that the only time NJ would look back at the paper is if there's an obvious discrepancy or if a lawsuit gets filed. I'd argue that they need to take it a step further and do automatic two-way verification. Activists have proposed statistical risk auditing be implemented everywhere, so if there's any deviation, a full recount is automatically performed.

The biggest problem that I see right now is in a lot of the southern states or swing states that matter, the governments are not taking this issue seriously. And so they are still using direct electronic recording. So my frustration is: what's the point of putting in all this work if the states that really matter are not taking this seriously?

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#456
post #7

> The No campaign fears losing control over Iceland's prized fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy and has vowed never to share the country's waters with anyone. Brussels has indicated Iceland could earn some kind of exemption, but it is considered potentially the biggest obstacle to any agreement. As noted in the article, Iceland's fishing industry makes up something like 40% of their exports. Which…

They'd be better off trying to align themselves neutrally and dropping NATO.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am not even sure the US would be able to completely dominate a conflict While everything you said may be correct (I’m not an expert), I doubt NATO countries want to get in an energetic war with the US. It’s simply so costly in lives and resources and effort. Hypothetically if the US “takes” Greenland I fully expect all the NATO countries to declare war on them (as article 5 requires), but not attack with military…

There would be tripwire forces located in Greenland. The US would likely be required to directly engage European troops. I would expect Europe to let the carrier know it got no chance before it even starts shit, in the above scenario. Like when the US under Biden surfaced a nuclear triad sub in the Baltic Sea to dampen Russia's nuclear threats against Europe, early in the Ukraine war. Not sure Europe could afford to…

> It would be wise for them [Canada] to stand with Europe, if they want to keep their own independence.

NATO article 5 says they have to.

And I have no doubt they would. There is only one country that is reneging on their commitments. It ain’t Canada.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that there isn't a limited number of ferry licenses. They aren't rivalrous. Sure the government is paying for one to make sure there's at least one, but anyone could.

Of course they are rivalrous. Contracts change, boats get laid up and people are forced to change employers. You can imagine on popular routes where you get to keep the proceeds that you instead pay for the right to operate it. What’s the difference to paying for being allowed a quota to fish in the waters said ferry service runs a passenger service in?

Why would there be a limited number of ferry licenses?

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#459
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the króna fluctuates so much, wouldn't that also indicate that demand for the króna just fluctuates a lot? Presumably, in absence of major conflicts between Iceland and its trading partners, as a result of economic imbalances. Those won't go away if Iceland were to join the eurozone, either as a EU member or via the Kosovo/Montenegro route. It might deprive the Icelandic central bank of a valuable tool to stabiliz…

Iceland had a debt crisis from 2008-2011. Part of the issue is the currency is small relative to global markets, so investments/speculation/shocks from elsewhere have an outsize impact. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932011_Icelandic_fi...

To be fair it wasn’t just Iceland? It was a global crash. At least that was my perception at the time.

But we recovered from it very quickly, and is often talked about. But we had currency exchange restrictions for quite some time to fix it. It worked.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#460
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the factors leading them to reconsider EU membership is monetary policy. The Icelandic króna is a very small currency that fluctuates considerably. Switching to the euro would protect them from exchange rate risks with their main trading partner. One solution for Iceland would be to join the eurozone without becoming a member of the EU, as Kosovo and Montenegro have done. However, this would only be desirable…

Not sure how it would affect home mortgages but the majority of icelanders are on mortgage plans that the principal remaining rises with inflation(I forget the name, I left a few years ago) - and will never likely pay them off.

Not quite true. The ratio fluctuates with the market conditions. Figure https://sedlabanki.is/library/?itemid=d2527537-11bc-4aca-944...

Verðtryggð loans are popular when economy is hard, people can enter the real estate market.

Once things go in the opposite direction people change to Óverðtryggð lán.

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