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Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

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Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The arguments that some put forward against the eu are as educated as the people declaring fiat money a scam back in the Bitcoin hype phase. > > While there are reasons not to join, most commenters against it have no clue what they are talking about. Indeed! As I just learned in this comment, the EU is about to collapse and Iceland would be stupid to board an already sinking. Makes me wonder where these commenters…

Currently, the EU is in a de facto war with Russia, in a trade war with the USA and China, and previous colonies don't seem to care too much for the West either. The USA would like to see nothing more than an explosive end to the EU and the Russians have been trying to kill any united front against their invasion plans for longer than the EU has been around. Every major world power has the money and motive to spread…

Colonies would be more than happy right?

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Joining the Euro is not the panacea that everyone thinks it is. It comes with some major drawbacks: - no control of interest rates since these apply to everyone in the Eurozone regardless of the current economic situation of a particular country. - no more devaluation to get back some competitiveness on international markets - strict financial guidelines in theory (3% deficit max per year and 60% of GDP/debt ratio) F…

Note that a lot of that stuff still exists when you have your own currency, but it gets absorbed into exchange rate movements instead of being an explicit decision. This is both a blessing because it automatically balances, and a curse because you can accidentally shift it in an unwanted way and it may be hard to notice you're doing so. For instance you can have a different interest rate when you have your own curren…

I agree that interests rates between trading partners have to somewhat match but the issue here within Europe is that Germany is so big that by default what they say goes.

So, if you have Estonia that is in a slump and needs a boost, it can go to the ECB and say, look we need to lower the interest rates but if Germany is happy with the current rates, the likelihood that Estonia gets its way is basically nil.

Right now Germany is feeling the pain and despite the inflation picking up above the 2% target rate again, the ECB has not raised the rates further, why? My hunch is because Germany can't afford it and neither does France.

A monetary union is great on paper, in reality the big fish still eats the small fish. The only difference is that the small fish can try to do something outside whereas in the union it just goes along and hope for the best.

Finally, another big issue with the Euro is that there is no fiscal union between the states. So if a state like France struggles then if a federal Europe was to happen, the states who have money would give it to France in forms of tax transfers but doing so punishes the countries that have made the reforms, that have invested, that have saved money and reduced their deficits and will only incentivized countries which have not done so to continue having deficits in the future.

How would a German politician or Austrian politician explain to his/her constituents that there is no money for new schools or hospitals but there is cash to bail out Italy or France for the nth time because these countries have refused to do what was necessary to reform their country?

In any case, since the exchange rates are no longer providing the feedback that the markets used to give by repricing the currencies that existed before, the markets now use the interest rates of the debt as proxy for their confidence in each European state. Right now, there is a 85bp difference between France and Germany and its widening as time goes on so something will have to give soon.

Either the ECB caves and lower the rates which can increase inflation or France risk triggering a Euro crisis that will be much much worse than the Greek one.

And since a lot more countries are now in the Euro compared to the 2010s, the spread of the crisis will be greater by default.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that would trend to cutting out the middle man due to the inefficiencies they create. Middlemen will only work if either these middlemen make the utilization more efficient or you make the requirements to bid so onerous that only these specialized middlemen have the competency to do fulfill them.

No, middlemen would happen if it's profitable to be a middleman. Extreme case: one person bids just enough to get all the rights, then charges double that to fishermen to use them.

Which means in the next bidding round the fishermen would bid somewhere between the double they were charged, and could still apparently have a working businesses with, and what the middleman bid.

All it means is that they were expecting too large profit margins and someone called their bluff.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#404
post #323

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So a Greek default would have created an EU political crisis. Greece would have been in the doghouse. Perhaps the other members would have suspended its structural funds, or even voting rights. Seems impossible it would have been thrown out of the EU, there's not even an obvious way to do that. All very unpleasant, but then there was clearly an upside for Greece. It just seems interesting that the scenario was never…

It was though? I remember a default being a real option in the media. But in the end, it was clear that unlike in Iceland, bankruptcies were not considerable, and so a bailout was going to happen. The only question was how the bailout would be structured. Yanis Varoufakis made his name back then by going against the grain and proposing a hairsplit, but instead an approach was chosen where Greece never really defaulte…

A default plus Greece unilaterally continuing to use the euro was the scenario hardly ever evoked.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#405
post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This means giving up all the advantages of central banking and is generally only done informally by countries experiencing hyperinflation without capital controls. It's a marker of a failed state. I remember in live TV debates for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the Yes leader insisted that Scotland could not be prevented from using the Pound sterling. It's technically true, but a very, very bad idea.

> ”This means giving up all the advantages of central banking … It's a marker of a failed state.” There are a number of countries/territories which have their “own” currency, but its value (exchange rate) is fixed directly to the USD: • Hong Kong • Saudi Arabia • United Arab Emirates • Qatar • Jordan • Oman • Bahrain • Panama • etc These are not failed states!

That's different from not having an own currency in use at all.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/396620/0a70a7885e83ac...

Looks like I'm right. I don't read in German regretfully, but what I get with machine translation fully supports my point - national discretion allows for civilian or humanitarian aid rather than an automatic military response

The relevant quote in the document is actually in English though.

So it does say required by all that is in their power. Whether that is enforceable is another measure, but that is true for a lot of rights.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#407
post #364
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope that Trump doesn't represent US policies in the long term.

There are approximately 874 days left in Donald Trump's presidential term as of August 29, 2026. That's if the bugger leaves office and doesn't start an insurrection like last time, and that the insurrection doesn't work like last time. Depends a lot on how much Americans actually want him gone, but alas you Americans seem to keep voting for him no matter how many corruption scandals he's in.

I think the majority of “you Americans” that you’re talking about aren’t on HN. The Americans actually on this platform probably have the same concerns you do.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#408
post #7

> The No campaign fears losing control over Iceland's prized fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy and has vowed never to share the country's waters with anyone. Brussels has indicated Iceland could earn some kind of exemption, but it is considered potentially the biggest obstacle to any agreement. As noted in the article, Iceland's fishing industry makes up something like 40% of their exports. Which…

> and membership in the fraying NATO military alliance That framing is.. strange. One member of NATO has lost the plot. For everyone else, it’s stronger than ever. If the US tries to attack a NATO member they’re going to find out just how serious the alliance is. For example, Maersk shipping line in Danish, and carries 15% of the world’s shipping containers. If the US were to invade Greenland it would be illegal for…

I'm sure that the US and EU are both able to seriously hurt each other a lot. That's also incredibly dumb, and will only help all the other powers in the world.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#409
post #59
post #7

> The No campaign fears losing control over Iceland's prized fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy and has vowed never to share the country's waters with anyone. Brussels has indicated Iceland could earn some kind of exemption, but it is considered potentially the biggest obstacle to any agreement. As noted in the article, Iceland's fishing industry makes up something like 40% of their exports. Which…

This was not argued well during Brexit (what was?) but it was an issue there. As much as Brexit didn’t fix anything for anyone, I do believe the EU operates far too much in the interests of fishing boats and far too little in the interest of conservation and realistic fishery management. So I think Iceland is right to be wary.

Fishing was a big issue during Brexit, despite contributing less to the UK economy than Warhammer.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#410
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now I like those benefits: The shared currency, easy travel, they killed roaming fees! Also they're the only ones seriously taking on big tech. They made Apple ditch their dumb ass lightning cable.

'roaming fees' :) That's my point: that's the most marginal thing imaginable, it's borderline tabloid populism - even though yes, admittedly over a lot of issues, it' beneficial obviously. The 'common market' is pretty valuable and it's what the focus should be. Literally nobody is against that - it's what everyone agrees on. As far as travel and roaming fees - you don't need a centralized government for any of that.…

Yet I as a citizen care about my own interests, I don't necessarily fight for my state, if it has drawbacks for me.
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