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Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

bbc.com

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Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#311

Post by mathattack »

WJW wrote: post #117
Beretta_Vexee wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the factors leading them to reconsider EU membership is monetary policy. The Icelandic króna is a very small currency that fluctuates considerably. Switching to the euro would protect them from exchange rate risks with their main trading partner. One solution for Iceland would be to join the eurozone without becoming a member of the EU, as Kosovo and Montenegro have done. However, this would only be desirable…

If the króna fluctuates so much, wouldn't that also indicate that demand for the króna just fluctuates a lot? Presumably, in absence of major conflicts between Iceland and its trading partners, as a result of economic imbalances. Those won't go away if Iceland were to join the eurozone, either as a EU member or via the Kosovo/Montenegro route. It might deprive the Icelandic central bank of a valuable tool to stabiliz…

Iceland had a debt crisis from 2008-2011. Part of the issue is the currency is small relative to global markets, so investments/speculation/shocks from elsewhere have an outsize impact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932011_Icelandic_fi...

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#312

Post by somenameforme »

eloisant wrote: post #267
somenameforme wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the EU was more a coalition of independent nations, it had vastly more influence and power in the world. The efforts to centralize power seem to be exactly what's causing the divisions. You have highly partisan leaders trying to dictate policy to countries that lean in very different directions. That's not going to lead to good things. Stable empires have always been those that offered the greatest degrees of so…

When was that coalition of nations? European countries were literally at each other throats until 1945, then we gradually built the European Union.

I am referring to the past when there was less divisive leadership. I think the good things EU offers are generally a great idea - ease of transport, trade, common markets, common currency (* - not so certain on this one, but I'm tentatively positive), and so on.

But when you do things like force countries to accept immigrants they may not want to accept, or demand cultural conformity on issues that are not well received, you're undermining your union. Historically religion is a great example here, as it was always the thing that divided people the most. And the Empires that thrived were those that allowed people to maintain and practice their own religion. In modern times socio-political values largely act in the same role, and also form the same divisions. The only difference is it just comes from personal ideology instead of scripture. Unfortunately we still seem largely stuck at the era of calling each other blasphemers and calling for crusades.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#313

Post by ghusto »

mcintyre1994 wrote: post #289
bluegatty wrote: post #108

These debates are hard to watch. 'Loss of sovereignty' for some reason is perfectly fine for Iceland, Switzerland and Norway, but not UK or others wanting to leave. 'Fisheries' was a small but founding and perennial concern before and during Brexit but they were labelled 'ugly nationalists'. The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now, and the crazy paradox is tha…

> but not UK or others wanting to leave. I don't think there are any others wanting to leave after Brexit! Politicians like Le Pen don't campaign to leave any more.

It's become serious in German, Austria, and Czechia. The sentiment in France is not insignificant either.

I hear a lot about how the UK has suffered after Brexit, but none of my experiences there support it. Not the people I talk to, not my own experiences from before vs. after. I think people _want_ it to be true, which I find ugly.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#315

Post by yeahforsureman »

bluegatty wrote: post #185
ngruhn wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now I like those benefits: The shared currency, easy travel, they killed roaming fees! Also they're the only ones seriously taking on big tech. They made Apple ditch their dumb ass lightning cable.

'roaming fees' :) That's my point: that's the most marginal thing imaginable, it's borderline tabloid populism - even though yes, admittedly over a lot of issues, it' beneficial obviously. The 'common market' is pretty valuable and it's what the focus should be. Literally nobody is against that - it's what everyone agrees on. As far as travel and roaming fees - you don't need a centralized government for any of that.…

The mismatch between the existing monetary union and the lack of fiscal integration (ie, not even any imaginary authoritarian eurofederalism) indeed is the economic macro issue above everything else, and remains a major unsolved tension even after the acute years of the Eurocrisis. Basically, if you take it as described, we're in a highly suboptimal state with two radically different directions to go to try to fix it. Politically, it's a nightmare, at least in terms of having much hope for sensible public debate and deliberation, let alone giving politicians the potentially necessary wide room of maneuvre.

I wasn't aware of these things back then, but I've been sad to find out it's not like we weren't warned about exactly this way back in the 90s when the crucial first steps were taken. Including by Paul Krugman, of all people!

Of course, it was the 1990s, from "Winds of Change" to Western neoliberalism as the End of History. And the elite belief in integration advancing "one crisis at a time" was well-established by then. Easy to say now, but did they really think public debt crises and bailing out national governments would create better conditions for having a mature discussion about EU-level fiscal transfers and taxation without drawing in the worst of our national stereotypes and trust issues, zero-sum thinking, and widespread beliefs about the Brussels bureaucrats completely detached from the realities of the common man, issuing directives about the correct curvature range of cucumbers while shoveling regional aid funds to smooth-talking Neapolitan gangsters to promote more sustainable EU waste management strategies, or whatever?

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#316

Post by boxed »

ben_w wrote: post #299
boxed wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet they defeated the UK navy several times :P

IIRC this was done by threatening to leave NATO, which put pressure on the USA who really didn't want to lose a perfect base location to help monitor/contain the USSR, who in turn put pressure on the UK. But this is from memory; and given the sources I read may have been politicised (I'm British by birth), take with a pinch of salt.

Nah, that wasn't it. It was done by Iceland having shorter supply lines and both sides not willing to start killing each other. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#317

Post by rozab »

bluGill wrote: post #232
Beretta_Vexee wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the factors leading them to reconsider EU membership is monetary policy. The Icelandic króna is a very small currency that fluctuates considerably. Switching to the euro would protect them from exchange rate risks with their main trading partner. One solution for Iceland would be to join the eurozone without becoming a member of the EU, as Kosovo and Montenegro have done. However, this would only be desirable…

They don't need to join the EU to use the euro. There are countries that use the U.S. dollar even though they're not the U.S. Sometimes it's just de facto use the dollar. There is technically a local currency and people use it when forced to but they would prefer the dollar. If you're a small country, something like the dollar or the euro is probably your best bet because of the stability it affords. The advantage to…

This means giving up all the advantages of central banking and is generally only done informally by countries experiencing hyperinflation without capital controls. It's a marker of a failed state.

I remember in live TV debates for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the Yes leader insisted that Scotland could not be prevented from using the Pound sterling. It's technically true, but a very, very bad idea.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#318

Post by rdm_blackhole »

Beretta_Vexee wrote: post #91
ekidd wrote: post #7

> The No campaign fears losing control over Iceland's prized fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy and has vowed never to share the country's waters with anyone. Brussels has indicated Iceland could earn some kind of exemption, but it is considered potentially the biggest obstacle to any agreement. As noted in the article, Iceland's fishing industry makes up something like 40% of their exports. Which…

One of the factors leading them to reconsider EU membership is monetary policy. The Icelandic króna is a very small currency that fluctuates considerably. Switching to the euro would protect them from exchange rate risks with their main trading partner. One solution for Iceland would be to join the eurozone without becoming a member of the EU, as Kosovo and Montenegro have done. However, this would only be desirable…

Joining the Euro is not the panacea that everyone thinks it is.

It comes with some major drawbacks: - no control of interest rates since these apply to everyone in the Eurozone regardless of the current economic situation of a particular country. - no more devaluation to get back some competitiveness on international markets - strict financial guidelines in theory (3% deficit max per year and 60% of GDP/debt ratio)

Finally, the biggest problem as it's been highlighted by many economists is that it spreads the risk to the whole Eurozone which sounds great in theory until you find yourself drowning in debt like Greece was in the 2010s or like France is nowadays.

Because now your government is borrowing in Euros, the markets move very slowly and the full impact of the finances of any Euro government is completely subdued since in the pool of countries that use the Euro there is Germany which is very good and very trustworthy creditor.

Take a look a what happened with Liz Truss in the UK, she made some rather stupid announcements and the markets reacted as they should and that lead to her removal and to a change of plans.

In France by contrast, no such changes have happened despite the fact that the French economy has been going downhill for awhile due to their 5%++ yearly deficits and their 120% debt ratio.

If France still had the Franc, then the markets would have forced the politicians in charge to either course correct and/or eventually to pass on multiple painful but necessary reforms.

Instead what we have is complete political paralysis and many presidential candidates are openly calling for a roll back of more pension reforms, lowering the retirement age to 60, increasing the pay of all the civil servants by 20% and more complete out of control spending.

The supposed EU fiscal rules have never been enforced anyway which means that countries don't really have any incentives to curb their spending since the ECB is always backing them.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#320

Post by ExoticPearTree »

ngruhn wrote: post #143
bluegatty wrote: post #108

These debates are hard to watch. 'Loss of sovereignty' for some reason is perfectly fine for Iceland, Switzerland and Norway, but not UK or others wanting to leave. 'Fisheries' was a small but founding and perennial concern before and during Brexit but they were labelled 'ugly nationalists'. The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now, and the crazy paradox is tha…

> The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now I like those benefits: The shared currency, easy travel, they killed roaming fees! Also they're the only ones seriously taking on big tech. They made Apple ditch their dumb ass lightning cable.

They did not really ditched the roaming fees. You get some free roaming with any plan, and if you go over it, you get charged.

Yes, it is nice for a day or two in another EU country, but pretty much that’s it.

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