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Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

bbc.com

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Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the factors leading them to reconsider EU membership is monetary policy. The Icelandic króna is a very small currency that fluctuates considerably. Switching to the euro would protect them from exchange rate risks with their main trading partner. One solution for Iceland would be to join the eurozone without becoming a member of the EU, as Kosovo and Montenegro have done. However, this would only be desirable…

During the 2010 debt crisis there was much talk of profligate Greece being "thrown out" of the euro zone. In this dark scenario Greek civil servants would get their pay rises in worthless drachma, but Greek homeowners would be left with unpayable euro mortgages. But nobody ever talked about the Montenegro option (similar to Ecuador and USD). I never understood this. What was stopping Greece from defaulting and keepin…

The Greek state didnʼt just need to get rid of the huge amount of old debts (what a default would have been good for) and was not interested in the currency in itself (keeping the euro outside the euro zone) but needed a lot of more money: new loans and the further payments for being in the euro zone.

This money was needed for public expenditure and to keep the Greek banking system running.

The biggest creditor banks of the Greek state were, in fact, Greek (ca. 50–60 bn. Euro).

The biggest foreign creditor banks were French (ca. 42 bn. Euro).

Accordingly, France was for more financial support (for Greece) to be payed by all EU member states.

The German banks were only a distant third (ca. 25 bn. Euro). But the German state was the biggest donor among the EU member states.

That is why Germany and some other net contributors e.g. the Netherlands were not too keen on keeping Greece in the EU zone at all costs. For them, the solution you named (“defaulting and keeping the euro”) would have been the rather advantageous, but not for Greek nor for other powerful member states. Nor for the Greek oligarchs – remember, Greek is a country of only about 10 million people who were not that well off – in whose hands may have ended most of the 360 bn Euros of the old debt? They liked the toxic fairy tales Varoufakis was telling (married to a member of the Stratos family).

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#302
What do they gain by joining? Seems like they already have all the benefits they could want, but lose their fishing rights if they joined?

> A Yes vote would not be a final decision on joining the EU. It would mean backing a move towards an accession agreement. Any deal would then have to be approved by a second referendum, as well by parliament

Makes sense. Which is why I was baffled when the UK just up and left after a referendum, as if it were legally binding or something.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#303
post #7

> The No campaign fears losing control over Iceland's prized fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy and has vowed never to share the country's waters with anyone. Brussels has indicated Iceland could earn some kind of exemption, but it is considered potentially the biggest obstacle to any agreement. As noted in the article, Iceland's fishing industry makes up something like 40% of their exports. Which…

Why do you say NATO is fraying? Because of Russia, NATO has increased its membership, increased military budgets, and increased European military cooperation. It probably has never been stronger.

The US keeps talking about leaving.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#304

These debates are hard to watch. 'Loss of sovereignty' for some reason is perfectly fine for Iceland, Switzerland and Norway, but not UK or others wanting to leave. 'Fisheries' was a small but founding and perennial concern before and during Brexit but they were labelled 'ugly nationalists'. The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now, and the crazy paradox is tha…

The UK's problem with Brexit was that the sovereignty issues under discussion were mostly lies (not merely false, but knowingly false, with incompatible stories told to different voters). The UK had opt-outs for a lot, wide-ranging veto powers, and for much of the rest the UK's trade gravity reality meant it had to follow the rules regardless of if it was in or out.

So far as I'm concerned, if it had been about sovereignty, it's of course fine to say "we know leaving is expensive but we want out anyway". That's what money is for.

The changes due to having left also means that rejoining is likely to be as disconnected from the reality of the situation as leaving itself was: the opt-outs are unlikely to be permitted, the vetos are already being reduced for practical reasons.

> The EU is in bad need of reform, much like FIFA or IOC or the hopelessly broken 2 party system in the US, it likely never will. Very ugly nationalists may come and tear it apart.

Indeed, though it remains to be seen if those nationalists are within or without.

A threat from outside could be the trigger needed for reform, turning this free-trade union into something more like a nation. One on the inside could just end it.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you call a state with an unelected president? This role has come about with no citizens in the EU being asked to approve it or vote for it. Being selected by a handful of bureaucrats is a creepy technocracy with zero pretensions for being a functioning democracy. Foolishness to see it any other way.

It highly depends. Everything from "monarchy" to "indirect democracy". Even the Americans don't elect their president directly, they have a special council inbetween to distribute more power to the sparsely populated states. Russia is a direct democracy (the people do directly elect their leader) but also the example of why technicalities like that make no difference in how fair politics are.

Who, in Europe, even knew they were getting a de facto president who they could not choose? This is meant to be a rationalised organisation with lofty egalitarian ideals, and yet it has to struggle to compete against descents into chaos and corruption in USA and Russia.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#306
post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No high-income country has shown serious interest in joining the EU in decades. Norway is a hyper-privileged nation that already has several relevant treaties with the EU and has very little to gain by submitting to a system where the Balkan gets to vote on the measures Norway must implement.

Is the top not an article about a high-income country expressing serious interest in joining the EU?

... expressing some interest to try and see if joining the EU might be feasible or not. That's literally what the referendum is about.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#307

These debates are hard to watch. 'Loss of sovereignty' for some reason is perfectly fine for Iceland, Switzerland and Norway, but not UK or others wanting to leave. 'Fisheries' was a small but founding and perennial concern before and during Brexit but they were labelled 'ugly nationalists'. The EU has benefits obviously but it's been failing Europe in critical ways for about 20 yeas now, and the crazy paradox is tha…

The mood is very much for re-joining in the UK.BREXIT was supposed to be the first domino that killed the EU but it very much didn't work because the average European likes a lot of what the EU has done for them. There are critiques sure but its not a dead system.

Depends who you talk to. I have a mixed bag of UK friends, and it's about half-half.

One thing I think myself is that there was an ugly _hope_ that the UK would suffer as a result. A hope which, as far as I can see, wasn't realised. Living in Europe, I saw a lot on the news about how the UK had shot itself in the foot and things were going badly, but when I visit friends, not so much.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#308
post #203

I run the count at one of the constituencies. We have about 42.000 people on the electoral register and we'll probably see about 75-80% turnout, so we're going to be counting about 33.000 votes with about 30-35 people on staff, 24 of them doing the actual counting. For the interest of the HN crowd, here is the technical report: You'll find that the Icelandic voting system is very low tech. The electoral registry for…

Low tech enables multiple interested parties to physically oversee the electoral process. That is a good thing.

The reason low tech works for something as important as voting is because it's expensive and inefficient. That expense and inefficiency is what protects it from fraud. You would need enormous sums of money to overturn an election like this even for a place as small as Iceland and even then, such amount of money wouldn't guarantee the result of future referendums.

Re: Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

During the 2010 debt crisis there was much talk of profligate Greece being "thrown out" of the euro zone. In this dark scenario Greek civil servants would get their pay rises in worthless drachma, but Greek homeowners would be left with unpayable euro mortgages. But nobody ever talked about the Montenegro option (similar to Ecuador and USD). I never understood this. What was stopping Greece from defaulting and keepin…

> profligate Greece being "thrown out" of the euro zone. In this dark scenario Greek civil servants would get their pay rises in worthless drachma, but Greek homeowners would be left with unpayable euro mortgages That was indeed the "mainstream media" (I so hate that expression but it does apply) opinion. The reality is more prosaic: German (and French, but mostly German) banks would be screwed if those debts were de…

comapre with the trajectory of the GDP per capita of argentina. i think staying in the eurozone did help them
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