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9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

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Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#111

Post by dakolli »

inigyou wrote: post #98
dakolli wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't tax revenue in sports gambling markets, it actually just leads to predatory gambling products with massive vig/house edge. This was attempted in Tennessee. Margins are extermely low sports betting, like 4.5%. Its actually a loss leader typically. So for casinos that only have this type of wagering it taxes like this aren't going to work. A casino might turn over 50 billion yearly but only have a 2.5% edge i…

Why do you assume the tax is on bets and not on profits

Im replying to a comment that says it should be taxed on revenue.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#112

Post by kotaKat »

vkou wrote: post #52
runako wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was. This is not a bad strategy for a company in our asymmetric regulatory environment. Fortunes were made in crypto on exactly this one-way bet. Go on breaking the law until you get a favorable judge/Congress. Nobody is going to jail (we don't really do that anymore), you might pay a fine. Every once in a while you'll have change the app a little to sort of comply with…

What kind of society do you get when the positive EV play is to always break the law first, litigate later?

Quite a few people (and countries) subscribe to the “it isn’t a war crime the first time” model.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#113

Post by fweimer »

dmix wrote: post #50
jfengel wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have them because the Founders thought it was a good idea. Then they thought it was a good idea to have two houses with different criteria, giving two chances to quash legislation. Plus the veto. Plus the Supreme Court (whose job they left almost completely undefined, so they made up a job description). So we have them because we can't get rid of them. But they are practically useless. They can usually manage the…

That’s the history of separation of powers, the judiciary is the final check in the loop. It doesn’t fully explain why Congress has allowed the expansion of executive power for nearly a century, resulting in more and more major issues being pushed to the Supreme Court. That’s not to say states have lost power, their reach has also grown exponentially far outpacing even the federal in terms of number of workers and wr…

> It doesn’t fully explain why Congress has allowed the expansion of executive power for nearly a century, resulting in more and more major issues being pushed to the Supreme Court.

It's not just about executive power. In recent times, Congress failed to adjust the written law when societal consensus shifted, and the discrepancy was resolved the courts, and ultimately the Supreme Court. I don't think Congress would pass something like the Civil Rights Act under the current circumstances. This isn't good for a democracy because the political debate that is part of the regular legislative process is lost.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#114

Post by mlrtime »

ButlerianJihad wrote: post #86
DannyBee wrote: post #19

Lawyer here - As i explained last time we had a variant of this thread (see comment history if you are interested), this is a very complicated area that people try to make very simple. It doesn't have to be complicated, mind you, but right now the way the law is written is basically: 1. Transmitting sports betting info between states is a federal crime unless it's legal in both states (18 U.S.C. § 1084(a)) 2. The CEA…

> That will be a coin flip I call $50 on Tails!

I'm selling options on ButlerianJihad losing, expiration in 1 year for $25. Who wants one?

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#115

Post by mlrtime »

reliabilityguy wrote: post #76
fooey wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the lesson congress learned from the Hillary Clinton coronation getting derailed by Obama was to absolutely never ever vote on anything important

Can you elaborate what you mean?

In 2002, Hillary Clinton voted for the Iraq War. In 2008 Obama used that fact successfully to [help] win the Democratic nomination and went on to beat McCain.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#116

Post by mlrtime »

inigyou wrote: post #97
ryandrake wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the correct reply to the constant "but whatabout" replies, that inevitably come up whenever you suggest regulation. "You've regulated bad thing X, but then they'll do Y!" So regulate Y! It's not like legislators only get one crack at a law. We should elect a government willing to move fast and iterate when loopholes are uncovered.

The thing is that US Congress can't make laws. It just can't. It's nonfunctional. When it does that's the rare exception, and it better be perfect the first time because you won't get so lucky twice.

https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed

Seems like they can, or you mean they can't 'make laws' that you personally care about?

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#117

Post by mlrtime »

inigyou wrote: post #98
dakolli wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't tax revenue in sports gambling markets, it actually just leads to predatory gambling products with massive vig/house edge. This was attempted in Tennessee. Margins are extermely low sports betting, like 4.5%. Its actually a loss leader typically. So for casinos that only have this type of wagering it taxes like this aren't going to work. A casino might turn over 50 billion yearly but only have a 2.5% edge i…

Why do you assume the tax is on bets and not on profits

People here have said even crazier ideas on HFT trading tax or wealth tax. People have lots of crazy ideas about taxation that clearly doesn't work. It's hard to tell if they don't get it or don't care because they actually just want it banned outright.

Few here would be a good politician or law maker.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#118

Post by mlrtime »

inigyou wrote: post #99
gruez wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pointing that out makes as much sense as "so you're against drugs? Did you know Tylenol is a drug? Ha checkmate!"

Great example, because Tylenol is more dangerous than nearly every illegal drug.

Now do H20, very harmful at high amounts.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#119

Post by cyanydeez »

runako wrote: post #48
DannyBee wrote: post #19

Lawyer here - As i explained last time we had a variant of this thread (see comment history if you are interested), this is a very complicated area that people try to make very simple. It doesn't have to be complicated, mind you, but right now the way the law is written is basically: 1. Transmitting sports betting info between states is a federal crime unless it's legal in both states (18 U.S.C. § 1084(a)) 2. The CEA…

> Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was. This is not a bad strategy for a company in our asymmetric regulatory environment. Fortunes were made in crypto on exactly this one-way bet. Go on breaking the law until you get a favorable judge/Congress. Nobody is going to jail (we don't really do that anymore), you might pay a fine. Every once in a while you'll have change the app a little to sort of comply with…

Not just breaking the log: use your VC funding to both build your product and buy your politicians. The asymmetry is basically that our politicians are way cheaper than market demand, like they're communists in north korea and just border guards who can get bought off with some contraband.

Re: 9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight

#120

Post by trompetenaccoun »

runako wrote: post #48
DannyBee wrote: post #19

Lawyer here - As i explained last time we had a variant of this thread (see comment history if you are interested), this is a very complicated area that people try to make very simple. It doesn't have to be complicated, mind you, but right now the way the law is written is basically: 1. Transmitting sports betting info between states is a federal crime unless it's legal in both states (18 U.S.C. § 1084(a)) 2. The CEA…

> Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was. This is not a bad strategy for a company in our asymmetric regulatory environment. Fortunes were made in crypto on exactly this one-way bet. Go on breaking the law until you get a favorable judge/Congress. Nobody is going to jail (we don't really do that anymore), you might pay a fine. Every once in a while you'll have change the app a little to sort of comply with…

Fortunes were made long before venture capitalists and governments got involved in (crypto)currencies. Even larger fortunes were prevented by legislation crafted by the banking cartel over many decades, pushed through with the help of their lobbyists in DC.

Existing legislation favors the haves, not the could-haves. And many people go to jail every year for breaking rules that big banks get a slap on the wrist for. Money laundering, terror financing, fraud,... Name a major bank and I'll list you some crimes no one ever spent a day in prison for. But that's fine because they have a license.

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