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Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

nytimes.com

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Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#301

Post by ExoticPearTree »

BeetleB wrote: post #261
ExoticPearTree wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I said is pertinent: Anthropic refusing to build software for autonomous weapons platforms is a national security issue. They have the capability, but they just don't want to do it because they don't feel like it. Soldiers don't need to die because a company is stubborn.

> They have the capability, but they just don't want to do it because they don't feel like it. Well, the US does have this whole "freedom" thing. Which said soldiers presumably fight for companies like Anthropic to have. Are you seriously saying the US government should be able to compel individual companies to make things?

Well, the US has a law called the Defense Production Act which, when invoked, compels companies to produce whatever Uncle Sam wants.

I am not saying it should be able, it already is.

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#302

Post by hvb2 »

newsomix9xl wrote: post #134
nl wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Accusations of Chinese dumping are cheap and easy to make, but the evidence is pretty mixed. Most actual cases have been of raw materials (eg steel, yarn) and industrial chemicals. I think this is a long way from the alleged "tsunami of Chinese goods". It's also worth noting that many Chinese manufactured goods would mostly substitute for US manufactured goods (eg cars). That's actually the whole point.

China is accused of dumping cars too: https://euobserver.com/226294/eu-warns-europes-car-industry-...

Selling at a loss to capture market share, isn't that part of every SV startup? What makes it so bad in this case?

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#303

Post by saturn8601 »

angry_octet wrote: post #21
bushido wrote: post #2

It was a master stroke in international politics though, the US created an arms race towards sovereign ai, small models, and self-hosting - exactly like they wanted to. (sarcasm intended)

The Iran war and SoH crisis has been great for EV uptake outside of the US. In combination with the US AI apartheid, it has been a huge boost for Chinese EVs and Chinese AI adoption.

Well yes... the current US admin gets blame for not seemingly understanding the market right now(or bungled elsewhere giving the Chinese a lucky break) but i'm sure the massive oversupply in Chinese EVs didn't hurt either. China has 100+ car comapnies that are all in the jungle right now trying desperately to survive. Most won't make it and when the victors emerge, other car companies may not be ready for these warriors that survived. One of the ways to get rid of excess inventory: dump it elsewhere.

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#304

Post by tough »

newsomix9xl wrote: post #134
nl wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Accusations of Chinese dumping are cheap and easy to make, but the evidence is pretty mixed. Most actual cases have been of raw materials (eg steel, yarn) and industrial chemicals. I think this is a long way from the alleged "tsunami of Chinese goods". It's also worth noting that many Chinese manufactured goods would mostly substitute for US manufactured goods (eg cars). That's actually the whole point.

China is accused of dumping cars too: https://euobserver.com/226294/eu-warns-europes-car-industry-...

If they have happy customers buying them is the dumping just a shibboleth for just "they're taking our national companies market share"

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#305

Post by saturn8601 »

bruce511 wrote: post #29
angry_octet wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Iran war and SoH crisis has been great for EV uptake outside of the US. In combination with the US AI apartheid, it has been a huge boost for Chinese EVs and Chinese AI adoption.

And trade. The last 18 months the US has shown itself to be a unreliable trade partner. Lots of companies are looking at diversifying both markets and supply chains. The recent trip of the Canadian PM to China is but the most visible part of this shift. That's at govt level, but I've seen it happen all the way down to individual level. US products are typically more expensive here than Chinese. But at least you were…

>Pretty much everyone I talk to, who would buy a car "new" tells me their next one will be electric. The tipping point is coming much faster than most people think.

People say a lot of things. If the infrastructure isn't there, it will end up like the US. I'm not sure Canadian EV infrastructure is up to snuff compared to China or even Europe. In the US a lot of people tried electric and now I am finding again and again, for many of these people, the next car after their EV is a gas car. Because poor implementation of the charging experience has put a bad first experience in many peoples minds. In the US K shaped economy, there are enough people that can stomach higher gas prices, and the lower portion of the K shaped economy has an even worse EV infrastructure or otherwise cannot afford most EVs(used or new) anyway.

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#306

Post by hvb2 »

Paradigma11 wrote: post #128
bruce511 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hence the concept of trade partnerships. No country makes everything, and yes, there's lots of competition. Tarifs have existed since forever. Countries use them to protect local industries. But they've always been stable, and industry focused. Food production for example is worth protecting and Canada has tarifs on imported Dairy. Partnerships exist to protect local industries, promote exports, and give citizens acc…

But China wants to make everything, that is the problem. It might also be the case that we misunderstand the state of the Chinese economy quite a bit. I heard an argument by an economist that the situation is mainly explained by the real estate crash. That was a ginormous event but the government basically just denied any big consequences. That did kill the credit market for a long time. Now Chinese consumer have lit…

> But China wants to make everything

As long as a typical Chinese person is happy with a standard of living that is far below what an American expects, China will be way cheaper on labor.

For most products, labor is a significant cost.

For a lot of consumers, price is more important then where it's made. Maybe not what they say they think is important but when they actually decide. As a result, China will make almost everything, along with the rest of south east Asia.

Basically, the lower price for products comes at the cost of exporting your own jobs. One is easy to reason about when making a purchase decision, the other is indirect and abstract. Which is why the former wins

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#307

Post by saturn8601 »

realo wrote: post #275
bruce511 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And trade. The last 18 months the US has shown itself to be a unreliable trade partner. Lots of companies are looking at diversifying both markets and supply chains. The recent trip of the Canadian PM to China is but the most visible part of this shift. That's at govt level, but I've seen it happen all the way down to individual level. US products are typically more expensive here than Chinese. But at least you were…

I recently bought a BambuLab 3D printer. Designed and made in China. Right from the unpacking to first print the experience was top Apple-style quality. Indeed I was agreeably surprised.

Its Apple'esque. The edge are still rough, and I don't trust their sketchy antics. People buy Apple because they earned that trust among their customer base. Is the device better than competitors, in my opinion yes but they are more along the lines of Samsung and not Apple.

Caveat: (Yes I know geeks here will say apple users are just dumb and want a status symbol....they'll never get it)

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#308

Post by saturn8601 »

newsomix9xl wrote: post #47
bruce511 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And trade. The last 18 months the US has shown itself to be a unreliable trade partner. Lots of companies are looking at diversifying both markets and supply chains. The recent trip of the Canadian PM to China is but the most visible part of this shift. That's at govt level, but I've seen it happen all the way down to individual level. US products are typically more expensive here than Chinese. But at least you were…

I doubt the Canadians want their economy flooded with Chinese goods ("dumping" - selling goods at less than cost) - which destroys local industry. This was predicted in The Economist awhile back, that if the US blocked Chinese imports a tsunami of Chinese goods would flood other countries and now it's happening. Those countries will also, in turn, erect trade barriers, or suffer the devastation that massive Chinese d…

It would be cool to have a native Canadian car company to defend and the only argument you can make for Chinese car dumping is that you dont want the only car companies remaining in the world to be Chinese. Thats a possibility yes since China has 100+ car companies, the population is overall declining in most western countries and there are already too many car companies for a shrinking pie of customers. But from Canada's point of view: they have already been threatened enough that im sure those remaining ford,gm and stellantis jobs might be gone eventually...so whats left? Maybe Canada can demand BYD open a car factory in Canada.

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#309

Post by poncho_romero »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #277
inigyou wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a policy choice. Why do we need jobs if we're getting unlimited free stuff? The laws of physics aren't requiring us to - we are requiring us to.

> Why do we need jobs if we're getting unlimited free stuff? Are you seriously arguing that the policy of putting oneself in a position of total economic dependence on China is in any way reasonable?

The point is total economic dependence on _no one_, because we had basically had total economic dependence on the US and they fucked us into learning our lesson.

Re: Judge rules Trump administration’s blacklisting of Anthropic was illegal

#310

Post by phainopepla2 »

hvb2 wrote: post #302
newsomix9xl wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is accused of dumping cars too: https://euobserver.com/226294/eu-warns-europes-car-industry-...

Selling at a loss to capture market share, isn't that part of every SV startup? What makes it so bad in this case?

Heavy subsidies by the state.
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