Interesting piece, I just wish the author had presented the data and their thesis instead of making Claude vomit out 20 pages of trash around it.
Really? Did you read the article? I did. It read as quirky human to me.
The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
61–70 of 88 posts
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
The economic value may be real but the profits may not be. One thing that's clear is that there is no leading vendor in this space and there may never be one. To some extent premium models can charge a premium price but it's going to be a competitive market and the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI will not be able to sustain monopoly pricing.
That is much less of a systemic issue though. It could kill OpenAI or Anthropic, but it wouldn't render these large GPU data centers obsolete since whatever replaces them, be it open models or cheaper closed models, would probably still require a lot of GPU compute.
Less bad, yes. But still bad. There will definitely be demand for the compute, the question is whether it will be enough to keep the value of it at the levels you’d expect if the tenants were in a monopoly/duopoly world. Competition puts downward pressure on margins and that’d translate into pressure on data center leases.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#63Interesting piece, I just wish the author had presented the data and their thesis instead of making Claude vomit out 20 pages of trash around it.
Really? Did you read the article? I did. It read as quirky human to me.
> During those first two years the loan performed beautifully: the borrower paid, the servicer collected, and the bond paid its coupon. Nothing looked wrong because the whole complex - housing, mortgages, securitization - was sitting inside the teaser period... Every ARM reset was known, dated, and contractually inevitable from the moment of origination.
This is clearly slop. Heavy use of dashes. Rules of three throughout. Pangram says 100% of what I checked was AI.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#64I get the structural comparison they are trying to make. But mortgages are not a frontier AI lab. They try to draw a comparison to the valuation of the real estate and the valuation of the hyper scalers in the markets. I would argue that the demand and valuation of a house is less elastic than AI. While a house’s value may continue to appreciate in the market there is an upper bound for the price of a house set by pe…
> We don’t know yet what the value of AI is. The underlying product, the model keeps improving and therefore increases its value.
i dont know. i think we already know how far these things go. Buying tons of data on mercor to slightly improve one domain has not really even displaced ppl in that domain. i really cant tell the difference between opus 4.8 and 5
very few domains in the world are closed like math.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#65I always imagined they're doing that psychological experiment where they randomly give a rat food when they press a button. They get way more addicted than when it's a consistent amount. They can't get away with the optics of facebook-level gamification but this is some sort of loop hole.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really want to get in the mindset of people who are like "AI is totally going to fail! Haha! Now let me just use AI to write a piece about it..."
It's not inconsistent if you think of it as the finances falling apart regardless of how useful the tool is.
Bubble != AI.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#67Interesting piece, I just wish the author had presented the data and their thesis instead of making Claude vomit out 20 pages of trash around it.
Really? Did you read the article? I did. It read as quirky human to me.
You need to adjust your AI detector. I read the whole thing and it reads exactly like all the Claude reports I spend all day reading when I’m using it to write code or investigate something.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#68I get the structural comparison they are trying to make. But mortgages are not a frontier AI lab. They try to draw a comparison to the valuation of the real estate and the valuation of the hyper scalers in the markets. I would argue that the demand and valuation of a house is less elastic than AI. While a house’s value may continue to appreciate in the market there is an upper bound for the price of a house set by pe…
"The underlying product, the model keeps improving and therefore increases its value." That's not exactly true. Yes, the fundamental capabilities of the models do seem to be growing dramatically, but the economic value of any particular model may be steady, or even falling, because of commoditization, or other issues external to the model itself. Without a moat, improvement in model capability does not necessarily tr…
As the model keeps improving, to the extent it has some utility, it will decrease in value.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#69Became obvious it was AI authored as I read, classic AI overstatement of parallels, lots of jargony words, its not X it is Y.
Re: The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
The AI debate has often been flattened into "Do you believe in the long term viability of the tech?" when there is also another question that needs to be asked in "Do you believe in the long term viability of these companies' business models?" It's a lot easier to believe the former than the latter. It's entirely possible for this tech to be humanity altering in the long term while we are also in a huge bubble that c…
Yes exactly the same as during the Dot com bubble.
Having lived to adulthood before Amazon started, I remember the massive debt to profit ratio of many dotcom companies.
Most importantly, I stick to Amazon's lesson: Sometimes, it's not about who's first. The winner can be determined by who's left.