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Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

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Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#61

Post by manquer »

tuesdaynight wrote: post #43
shubhamjain wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every quarter I see a similar analysis, similar projection. Yet, they keep posting these insane numbers. Everyone knows it’s a bubble, the problem is determining the top. Nvidia is continuously showing the top is far far higher than everyone imagines.

I don't get why people say Nvidia is a bubble. They are selling products now, not in the future! If AI market collapses (I doubt it will happen), they will still be selling GPUs. They will make less money, but that is expected

Bubble means inflated not fake, i.e when they make less money their stock will crash and bubble will pop, which is what people buying the stock today are concerned with , is this going to hold

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#62

Post by dwaltrip »

the__alchemist wrote: post #15
stymaar wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

It's all factored in! The unimaginably vastness of the cosmos: Past, future, at astronomical through Planck scales. You have no agency; free will is an emergent phenomenon. You are not smarter than all those quants with their Ivy league degrees and 7 figure salaries, surely; the only winning move is not to play.

You can play the game of life.

But most of us would be better off not gambling on high risk bets like shorting NVDA.

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#64

Post by dataplumb3r »

prewett wrote: post #27
runarberg wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do not short it. I repeat, do not do this! Do not play the game of capitalism against expert capitalists who have spent the last few decades rigging the game more an more in their own favor. In very rare cases may be lucky but only for a short while. The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything. In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is n…

Right answer, but the anti-captialist reasoning is rubbish. The simple reason why you do not want to short a stock is that it can go up infinitely, and nVidia has a four year history of going up. There is also good reason to think nVidia will hit the numbers, both because AI is booming and because nVidia is conservative in its forcasts. No capitalist conspiracy theory is needed, save the conspiracy theories for the T…

TBF there are absolutely horrible platforms like Robinhood that aren't far off what the above poster alluded to. At one point payment for order flow was the majority of their revenue or near it!

The boring staid firms like Fidelity/Vanguard have vastly superior products not designed to incentivize gambling

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#65

Post by heisenbit »

This would require data centre cap-ex north of 1T and revenues from non AI companies in the same order of magnitude. Is it realistic to scale up data centre roll-outs? Are regular companies ready to re-allocate 1T? And this all happens in an environment where rates go up and many of the companies are not profitable?

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#66

Post by order-matters »

tuesdaynight wrote: post #43
shubhamjain wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every quarter I see a similar analysis, similar projection. Yet, they keep posting these insane numbers. Everyone knows it’s a bubble, the problem is determining the top. Nvidia is continuously showing the top is far far higher than everyone imagines.

I don't get why people say Nvidia is a bubble. They are selling products now, not in the future! If AI market collapses (I doubt it will happen), they will still be selling GPUs. They will make less money, but that is expected

the bubble doesnt mean they are worthless only that after a pop the value of stock will drop significantly. it is out of their control if people overvalue the stock, and thats what creates the bubble which will eventually need to pop for self correction - but might trigger a massive oversale bringing the stock below actual value and causing all sorts of problems that will challenge the solvency of the company (basically challenging their liquid funds vs how much debt that they backed to their stock value). if they survive that then a bounce back is expected and buying while they were low would get you profit again. if they overleveraged themselves during the bubble bc they bought into the hype themselves, then they could face serious financial troubles and be susceptible to getting bought out.

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#67

Post by ttoinou »

zozbot234 wrote: post #42
drbscl wrote: post #20

Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term

> Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve According to Jevons' paradox a reduction in resource requirements (improved resource efficiency for the same payoff) leads to an increase in demand. This stops working when demand for compute is completely exhausted, but we are very far from that. There's even some very silly predictions floating around (see the latest Dwarkesh…

There is no paradox, simply (a/b) increasing tells you nothing about a nor b. Jevons only “destroys” the (wrong) intuition that total b would decrease

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#68

Post by reticulates »

zozbot234 wrote: post #42
drbscl wrote: post #20

Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term

> Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve According to Jevons' paradox a reduction in resource requirements (improved resource efficiency for the same payoff) leads to an increase in demand. This stops working when demand for compute is completely exhausted, but we are very far from that. There's even some very silly predictions floating around (see the latest Dwarkesh…

I don’t think this line of thinking is particularly robust because it ignores how AI is being used and where the resource usage is coming from.

Right now there are a small number of very very resource intensive use cases that are being subsidized by OpenAI and Anthropic. There are people generating millions of lines of code because it’s basically free at the point of use, despite the code producing very little value. Anthropic and OpenAI frequently “reset” customer limits to allow them to use even more resources at no additional cost.

The majority of use cases across business are not generating millions of lines of code per employee. The majority of businesses need just a little bit of automation to radically improve the way they operate. A software engineer making endless projects because it’s free to do so might use hundreds of billions of tokens per year, but an entire manufacturing business could be revolutionized with a few million tokens per year.

I think 2 things can be true:

1. There is very little penetration of AI across the economy and huge room to grow in the number of businesses deriving economic value from AI

2. The compute usage today is vastly overrepresented by usage outliers who are not paying the cost of their usage and will stop when forced to pay the cost

We could see AI usage 10x while seeing compute decrease 10x if the type of usage shifts. Most businesses just need smarter macros.

Re: Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens

#69

Post by chasd00 »

azan_ wrote: post #24
runarberg wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do not short it. I repeat, do not do this! Do not play the game of capitalism against expert capitalists who have spent the last few decades rigging the game more an more in their own favor. In very rare cases may be lucky but only for a short while. The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything. In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is n…

It’s a shitty advice (the one about not playing, not the one about not buying shorts). The winning move is to have diversified longs with long horizon. That’s all it takes to participate in profits from “rigged” system.

Yeah, to paraphrase an old quote “the best way to make a small fortune doing active trading is to start with a large fortune”.
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