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The turbulent AI era is here

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Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#321

Post by nevinera »

Havoc wrote: post #270

The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me. Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time. Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a frea…

I.. don't understand how AI could be an "equalizer", unless we're talking about helping the 1% catch up to the 0.01%? This is one of the most direct ways to turn dollars into outcomes since _legal slave labor_, and the people in control of the machines have huge vested interests in ensuring that power _stays_ in their hands.

Power accretes.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#322

Post by groestl »

220hertz wrote: post #285
drgo wrote: post #251

I am not optimistic. What we learned from history is that despite all warnings and good intentions, governments, corps and citizens will make every possible mistake before we finally arrive at another precariously stable situation. Experts are famously bad at predicting the outcomes of new technologies/policies even in times of relatively low upheaval. And plans have a way of producing many significant unintended con…

It's kind of like what us Canadians say about the U.S. sometimes — that they'll always do the right thing, after they've tried everything else.

I though it was Winston Churchill? Anyways, from experience, I think it's true.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#323

Post by lelanthran »

suriyaG wrote: post #272
Havoc wrote: post #270

The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me. Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time. Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a frea…

not an unfair comparison but i think it's the wrong model. you were always able to buy time by hiring people to do things for you. right now it's agents. i think it's an equalizer in that, $200 agent is more accessible than a $10000 human

> you were always able to buy time by hiring people to do things for you. right now it's agents. i think it's an equalizer in that, $200 agent is more accessible than a $10000 human

The other half of this is that, in the past, skill meant that a year of weekends could be turned into a viable business that had skill as a moat.

Now, skill means almost nothing: the fleeting product of a drooling idiot is almost indistinguishable from skill and care as long as that drooling idiot has capital.

No longer will merit be rewarded; it will be exclusively capital that is rewarded.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#324

Post by mlcrypto »

nl wrote: post #310
Havoc wrote: post #270

The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me. Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time. Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a frea…

> Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a freakin $200 plan I don't think this is a useful model. People struggling to survive have other priorities. A better model for thinking about this is how cloud opene…

I can ship a new feature almost every day on the $20 Codex plan. The limiting factor has always been the drive to build something. General Artificial Intelligence is here and most will continue going about their normal routine

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#325

Post by munificent »

smikhanov wrote: post #258

God, I wish I knew which PR firm he hires. Changing his public image from the most despised, greediest, nastiest businessman of his era to a calm, wise sage over a course of 10-20 years -- that's quite an achievement. Just read the intro to this post, it sounds like music: "The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history" -- are you even qualified to make this claim? "Right now,…

The guy spent $100 million of his own money working to eradicate guinea worm and spared millions of people from an encruciating disease.

Whatever other personal attributes might have, he has earned some goodwill and respect.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#326

Post by Gud »

nl wrote: post #310
Havoc wrote: post #270

The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me. Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time. Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a frea…

> Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a freakin $200 plan I don't think this is a useful model. People struggling to survive have other priorities. A better model for thinking about this is how cloud opene…

In 2000, I was 14 years old and hosting my own websites(in PHP) on a FreeBSD box at home, on a 10/10 connection, on hand me down hardware from a school sysadmin.

This was in Stockholm where we have good internet.

Certainly a skilled adult could get away with less than $100 in server costs.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#327

Post by Gud »

lelanthran wrote: post #323
suriyaG wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not an unfair comparison but i think it's the wrong model. you were always able to buy time by hiring people to do things for you. right now it's agents. i think it's an equalizer in that, $200 agent is more accessible than a $10000 human

> you were always able to buy time by hiring people to do things for you. right now it's agents. i think it's an equalizer in that, $200 agent is more accessible than a $10000 human The other half of this is that, in the past, skill meant that a year of weekends could be turned into a viable business that had skill as a moat. Now, skill means almost nothing: the fleeting product of a drooling idiot is almost indistin…

Doubtful. These tools will be more useful in capable hands than in the hands of a drooling idiot.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#328

Post by drTobiasFunke »

hn_submit wrote: post #188

If A.I. starts to replace jobs en masse I propose we tax the companies profiting from this at a rate of 95% so we can finance welfare and Universal Basic Income schemes. We need to be aware that said companies and the people behind them will do anything in their power, including bribing politicians, to prevent this and to keep the money they believe are they're entitled to. I even believe the Big Tech bigwigs have lo…

If AI replaced all jobs, then how are those companies turning a profit? I dont understand this. Humans need to spend money and buy products for all the companies to make money. Do we imagine a parallel economy of agents spending money and humans are out of this?

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#329

Post by azan_ »

brazukadev wrote: post #132
azan_ wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally everywhere. I'm running a scientific project where I've got to inspect large amount of whole-body MRI segmentations. The software available on market is very clunky for doing that, so I've asked Claude to write one perfectly tailored for my use case. With all the helper functions I've asked it to implement, the software sped up reviews >4x. And I couldn't write it myself.

Excel sped up reviews >100x without Bill Gates preaching daily that devs were cooked.

Excel has limited uses. AI threatens replacement of all cognitive work. Don’t you see the difference?
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