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The turbulent AI era is here

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Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#311

Post by rickydroll »

eieie1 wrote: post #302
rickydroll wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you that it probably won't replace jobs, but it will let you get more done in less time. I suspect, based on some of the stuff I've read recently, that two days with AI assistance are as exhausting/wearing as five days without, because you're trying to keep up with AI speed (another argument for slower LLMs on a local machine). Unfortunately, I think we will also see corporate expectations that if you ca…

This is still a nonsense argument. Do more of.. what? Much of what happens in software is not akin to a factory producing goods. You need projects - projects don’t fall out the sky and value creating ones are hard to come by!

The funny thing about that is, I would argue, the opposite. Much of what happens in software is like a factory producing goods. I've worked on many projects at many companies; 80% of the code was written some variation of what I'd written elsewhere in different languages. We had to slog through the boring, "Been there, done that" code to get to the 20% that was interesting.

Also consider that there's a lot going on in the world that doesn't involve software creation. My partner works at a well-known law school, and a small but significant part of her work could be handled by AI. I'm looking into taking the department-specific info and RAGging it into an LLM so that students and instructors can find what they need in a chat interface, rather than using her as an LLM.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#313

Post by ericyd »

Related to the form of the article rather than the content: what purpose do pull quotes serve in an online publication? Especially on phones they are so goofy, you read the pull quote and then one or two lines later you read it again. I get it for scanability in newspapers but I think it should be deprecated in online publishing.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#314

Post by randcraw »

bsenftner wrote: post #281
hn_submit wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. had a top tax tier of 95% in de 1940's.

Which may as well be a fairy tale, not going to happen ever again. That was an anomaly.

And there were an unimaginable number of tax loopholes available back then that ultimately reduced the individual tax rate enormously. You just had to reinvest your income in a multitude of increasingly bizarre tax dodges devised by increasingly byzantine tax laws.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#315

Post by rickydroll »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #290
rickydroll wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you that it probably won't replace jobs, but it will let you get more done in less time. I suspect, based on some of the stuff I've read recently, that two days with AI assistance are as exhausting/wearing as five days without, because you're trying to keep up with AI speed (another argument for slower LLMs on a local machine). Unfortunately, I think we will also see corporate expectations that if you ca…

It actually leads to more done in more time at the moment. For things that carry actual value at least. For example your AI generated code feels very productive and "more done in less time", until you have to spend 3 times as much reviewing it, and supporting it long term compared to code written before AI. People mistake instant gratification for long term productivity gains.

Well, if you throw a long-winded prompt over a fence and tell the agents to work it out on their own, yeah, you will spend a lot of time reviewing it. But if you use it as a form of pair programming and keep your scope of focus constrained, review time is built into your effort.

Also, keep in mind that my perspective is colored by the fact that I can't type much, and coding by keyboard is pretty much off the table for me.

And last, as I pointed out elsewhere, LLMs are useful for more things than writing code, and administrative work can be handled easily with the current generation of LLMs.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#317

Post by aleph_minus_one »

nl wrote: post #310
Havoc wrote: post #270

The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me. Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time. Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a frea…

> Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a freakin $200 plan I don't think this is a useful model. People struggling to survive have other priorities. A better model for thinking about this is how cloud opene…

> Before cloud you had to hire a dedicated server and you were looking at $1000/month (in say 2000).

Rather: perhaps 50-100 USD per month got and still gets you a quite good server to start your project. If you were looking for bargains, you could even get a server for less.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#318

Post by marmarama »

OccamsMirror wrote: post #266
RivieraKid wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really simplify how this works: Owners of capital use the capital in combination with workers to produces goods and services. They give half of the production to the workers and keep the other half. If AI replaces workers, the owners of capital will simply keep all of the production to themselves. So they would be better off. If I have a construction company, I could just lay off the workers and distribute the…

With that many people out of work, you may struggle to hold on to that capital.

That's where the fully automated weapons systems come in. Robotics and AI give the megalomaniacs of the world both a reason and the means to kill everyone with impunity.

The rest of the 21st century is going to be really messed up.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#319

Post by CuriouslyC »

red75prime wrote: post #237
CuriouslyC wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This time will be different, because the oligarchs think that when the people finally come for them with pitchforks, they'll have an army of terminators to hide behind. That's why they're going YOLO full mask off.

Ah, this faceless blob of oligarchs that has no human qualities whatsoever. Marxism-pilled much?

Look at the way they've fought to avoid taxes, regulation and anything in the interest of the regular person in their question for record shareholder profits. Even the people we thought were "good billionaires" like Gates are monsters, and just imagine the dirt Zuck and the Ellisons are hiding. The only thing I'll say for Elon is that he seems less concerned about hiding what a piece of human garbage he is, and what we've seen is still probably only the tip of the iceberg.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#320

Post by chasd00 »

hn_submit wrote: post #276
zx8080 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone seriously trust in the fairytale that the rich and powerful gives 95% of their profit back to customers? It's not really what they've built their business empires for.

The U.S. had a top tax tier of 95% in de 1940's.

Even if that was possible today it would just mean that money goes to the government not the people. Most of it would flow overseas, every single entity in the planet would come begging with their hand out. Actual citizens would be very last on the list.

Probably the only feasible thing would be to set income tax to zero. However, half the nation doesn’t pay income tax anyway (100% refund).

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