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The turbulent AI era is here

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Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#291

Post by dgellow »

charlieyu1 wrote: post #267
drgo wrote: post #251

I am not optimistic. What we learned from history is that despite all warnings and good intentions, governments, corps and citizens will make every possible mistake before we finally arrive at another precariously stable situation. Experts are famously bad at predicting the outcomes of new technologies/policies even in times of relatively low upheaval. And plans have a way of producing many significant unintended con…

I don’t know, early Internet was the good old days. Probably because it wasn’t mainstream and governments, corps and citizens mostly didn’t care.

LLMs were fun and interesting to use and explore before they started to be pushed absolutely everywhere with the most aggressive tech rollout we ever experienced, all the financial engineering, all the moral judgement and prospects of a dull, hyper capitalistic society where a few trillionaires control our lives

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#292

Post by _aavaa_ »

DiscourseFan wrote: post #220
_aavaa_ wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an absurd argument. Any one source is a drop in the bucket.

I think international shipping produces significantly more CO2 than any single other source

But not when you look at just one ship, or just one datacenter.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#293

Post by dgellow »

bsenftner wrote: post #280
hn_submit wrote: post #188

If A.I. starts to replace jobs en masse I propose we tax the companies profiting from this at a rate of 95% so we can finance welfare and Universal Basic Income schemes. We need to be aware that said companies and the people behind them will do anything in their power, including bribing politicians, to prevent this and to keep the money they believe are they're entitled to. I even believe the Big Tech bigwigs have lo…

UBI is a farce, and is the wealth class's yet another lever to control people. UBI will not be "universal", not in this human civilization of hyper stratification. Conditions will be placed, and only certain ethnicity, and somehow certain people will receive two to ten times as much as others. If this proposed and impossible gift farce happens at all. How gullible are you to think this UBI concept has anything but wi…

People think about policies day 0, meaning when they are implemented, and not how they evolve and degenerate over decades. UBI would obviously be used as a mechanism to discriminate and punish people the decision makers don’t like

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#294

Post by _aavaa_ »

andrewflnr wrote: post #179
_aavaa_ wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an absurd argument. Any one source is a drop in the bucket.

Any given optimization reduces running time of a program, but you should still focus on your hot loops.

That’s an argument about sequencing, not of necessity.

And as an analogy it breaks down because we need to reduce/eliminate all sources of pollution, not just the current biggest one.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#295

Post by dgellow »

hn_submit wrote: post #286
bsenftner wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI is a farce, and is the wealth class's yet another lever to control people. UBI will not be "universal", not in this human civilization of hyper stratification. Conditions will be placed, and only certain ethnicity, and somehow certain people will receive two to ten times as much as others. If this proposed and impossible gift farce happens at all. How gullible are you to think this UBI concept has anything but wi…

Do you believe people will be able to sustain their incomes at current levels if A.I. does most of the work? Maybe by some magical means they will, but I'm far from sure that the majority will be able to stay above the poverty line.

If that’s the case the solution is to ban or very strictly regulate those AI companies having such a massive level of externalities. Like any other industry that would put the whole world economy at risk.

Keeping them running and patching the minimum of damage with a UBI is just absurd. If the impact on the job market is as bad as what the AI leaders say, which is extremely bad, it’s a national security risk level for pretty much all developed economies. We would absolutely never accept that in any other domain

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#296

Post by RivieraKid »

Tepix wrote: post #268
RivieraKid wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's impossible to measure how does a company or a person benefit from AI. The economy is a complex system. A construction company may benefit more than a robot-making company. The right approach could be to raise the general tax level, possibly increase the weight of wealth taxes, and redistribute. That said, there will be enough jobs for the foreseeable future. Any job that has some physical component - hospita…

> But it's impossible to measure how does a company or a person benefit from AI. I think he was proposing taxing the companies offering AI. > Re: AI killing jobs where you sit behind a desk The robots aren't far behind.

Companies offering AI will capture just a tiny slice of the value created by AI. So the tax would generate negligible revenue.

I think humanoids capable of replacing a nurse for example are 20+ years away. But I could be wrong and hope I am.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#297

Post by green_dee »

suriyaG wrote: post #272
Havoc wrote: post #270

The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me. Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time. Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a frea…

not an unfair comparison but i think it's the wrong model. you were always able to buy time by hiring people to do things for you. right now it's agents. i think it's an equalizer in that, $200 agent is more accessible than a $10000 human

yeah, fair on that point, that makes doing Sloppy SAAS really more accessible and that's what we're seeing

On the other hand, what I see happening is:

0. corporation use AI plan ultra-X-high-pro-premium-enterprise

1. corporations firing medium-high paid developers with solid experience and experstise because low-medium paid developers are performing well with ultra-X-high-pro-premium-enterprise plan

2. AI models evolves and now there's a 10X ultra-X-high-pro-premium-enterprise that keeps up the pace

3. low to medium paid are now struggling. The company hires low-paid developers to use more the original AI plan

4. refuses to pay best AI or decrease pressure on developers

5. developers are forced to wake up early, work afterhours and these shenanigans so that they keep up with the pressure

6. corporation pays for the 10X ultra-X-high-pro-premium-enterprise

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#298

Post by Gareth321 »

NotRocketScienc wrote: post #249
Gareth321 wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not a coincidence that homelessness only skyrocketed at the same time housing price took off to the point even professionals are spending half of their salary on rent. But this is also highly correlated with a skyrocketing opioid epidemic. How are you disambiguating those variables? I suspect you've decided what you believe is the cause and you're working backwards from that instead of earnestly interrogating…

Unless you’ve never paid rent, it’s incredibly obvious that rent is the cause of homelessness. While you may never experience it, some people can’t come up with thousands of dollars every 30 days to give someone else

Unless you've never taken heroine, it's obvious that drug addiction is a major contributing factor to homelessness.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#299

Post by Izkata »

dwohnitmok wrote: post #126
mrtesthah wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium. > This is asserted without evidence. There is absolutely no proof that AI requires humans in the loop to function or improve itself. Nope, it's actually fairly well established. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11269175/

That paper has had a pretty turbulent reception and looks pretty conclusively wrong at this point. It used an incorrect theoretical framing that assumed that data was being replaced rather than accumulated as a result of more training (see https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.01413 which explores this). This is incorrect because this simply isn't how real-world datasets are created via synthetic data generation (which generall…

We've already seen it start and they had to actively work against it: https://openai.com/index/where-the-goblins-came-from/

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#300

Post by firmretention »

drgo wrote: post #251

I am not optimistic. What we learned from history is that despite all warnings and good intentions, governments, corps and citizens will make every possible mistake before we finally arrive at another precariously stable situation. Experts are famously bad at predicting the outcomes of new technologies/policies even in times of relatively low upheaval. And plans have a way of producing many significant unintended con…

WFH was a great example of this. Everyone seemed to be on board, this was the way of the future, etc. Yet it seems nobody in charge thought about downtown economies or commercial real estate, and it turns out having a bunch of empty office buildings is really bad for banks and pension plans that invest in them. Somehow the experts or economists didn't see this coming, and since the system in question is too big to fail, and they tried nothing and were all out of ideas, the only remaining solution was a whiplash back to the status quo, employee happiness and productivity be damned.
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