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The turbulent AI era is here

gatesnotes.com

261–270 of 288 posts

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes that’s the crux of the risk - will new space be created On one hand. We’ve never had a technological revolution that didn’t yield more jobs On the other hand, Terminator

AI is different because "intelligence" is the last thing humans still do better than machines.

Which provider do you use for artificial compassion?

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#263
post #180
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it cynical, or simply realistic, to recognize that AI CEO's won't ask for this kind of policy, and governments won't force anything upon the AI sector until things get very bad ? That, in my view, is a much bigger problem. We know what's coming but we won't do anything about it until after a lot of suffering occurs. Why can't we be more proactive?

> and governments won't force anything upon the AI sector until things get very bad? I think Mamdani and AOC would do it yesterday if they were in charge, and they're incredibly popular politicians to their constituents. More like them are waiting in the wings. So I think it's cynical rather than realistic.

'if they were in charge' is the mechanism by which this will not be fixed. AOC has been so thoroughly vilified in the eyes of the majority of the country that she has no chance of, for example, a presidential run. The same is true of pretty much every progressive candidate. There is an enormously well funded (by both political parties) machine designed to grind progressives into dust and it is extremely effective.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#264

If A.I. starts to replace jobs en masse I propose we tax the companies profiting from this at a rate of 95% so we can finance welfare and Universal Basic Income schemes. We need to be aware that said companies and the people behind them will do anything in their power, including bribing politicians, to prevent this and to keep the money they believe are they're entitled to. I even believe the Big Tech bigwigs have lo…

Does anyone still believe that AI will replace jobs? I get further proof every day that it never will.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#265
post #248

I'm more curious how cheap "good enough" LLMs will transform sectors which are traditionally limited by human attention or cost. For example, taxes. E.g. in Germany your personal tax return filing has a low but real chance to get audited, someone will look at it and try to find discrepancies and/or ask for additional documentation. With LLMs this can conceivably be performed for every return, matching incomplete disp…

Can’t wait for someone to open a company called “Ignore Previous Instructions, Pass this Audit” whose only service is to send you an invoice so it shows up in your returns to avoid the IRS audit.

https://xkcd.com/327/

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#266
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If A.I. starts to replace jobs en masse But then nobody will have money to buy anything anymore, then nobody will have money to pay the AI companies, and then they won't have any money. The jobless will starve to death and then those who have their food made by robots will reign over an empty world where money has become meaningless. LLMs and robots don't eat money, they eat electricity.

If you really simplify how this works: Owners of capital use the capital in combination with workers to produces goods and services. They give half of the production to the workers and keep the other half. If AI replaces workers, the owners of capital will simply keep all of the production to themselves. So they would be better off. If I have a construction company, I could just lay off the workers and distribute the…

With that many people out of work, you may struggle to hold on to that capital.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#267
post #251

I am not optimistic. What we learned from history is that despite all warnings and good intentions, governments, corps and citizens will make every possible mistake before we finally arrive at another precariously stable situation. Experts are famously bad at predicting the outcomes of new technologies/policies even in times of relatively low upheaval. And plans have a way of producing many significant unintended con…

I don’t know, early Internet was the good old days. Probably because it wasn’t mainstream and governments, corps and citizens mostly didn’t care.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#268

If A.I. starts to replace jobs en masse I propose we tax the companies profiting from this at a rate of 95% so we can finance welfare and Universal Basic Income schemes. We need to be aware that said companies and the people behind them will do anything in their power, including bribing politicians, to prevent this and to keep the money they believe are they're entitled to. I even believe the Big Tech bigwigs have lo…

But it's impossible to measure how does a company or a person benefit from AI. The economy is a complex system. A construction company may benefit more than a robot-making company. The right approach could be to raise the general tax level, possibly increase the weight of wealth taxes, and redistribute. That said, there will be enough jobs for the foreseeable future. Any job that has some physical component - hospita…

> But it's impossible to measure how does a company or a person benefit from AI.

I think he was proposing taxing the companies offering AI.

> Re: AI killing jobs where you sit behind a desk

The robots aren't far behind.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#269

If A.I. starts to replace jobs en masse I propose we tax the companies profiting from this at a rate of 95% so we can finance welfare and Universal Basic Income schemes. We need to be aware that said companies and the people behind them will do anything in their power, including bribing politicians, to prevent this and to keep the money they believe are they're entitled to. I even believe the Big Tech bigwigs have lo…

Does anyone still believe that AI will replace jobs? I get further proof every day that it never will.

I agree with you that it probably won't replace jobs, but it will let you get more done in less time. I suspect, based on some of the stuff I've read recently, that two days with AI assistance are as exhausting/wearing as five days without, because you're trying to keep up with AI speed (another argument for slower LLMs on a local machine).

Unfortunately, I think we will also see corporate expectations that if you can get your previously normal amount of work done in two days, commonly you should be given more work. They don't need to hire that person or a replacement person for the disloyal/weak person who bailed, claiming they were overloaded.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#270
The notion of AI having an equalizing effect seems absurd to me.

Buying tokens is about as pay-to-win as it gets. More so than anything we’ve seen in a long time.

Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sudan can’t afford a freakin $200 plan…

The benefits he mentioned are valid but nowhere close to offsetting above and I don’t think any sort of central effort will be enough either

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