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Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

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Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#241
post #50
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many coconuts are on one tree and how many tons of coconuts would be needed to replace kerosene globally? I am 100% for decarbonization as fast as possible. BTW Law of Conservation of Energy will be applied to coconut-based energy as well. Vaclav Smil mentions in his book that we should consume less. I see so many cheap weekender air tickets… it’s almost impossible to resist the temptation. Annually 5 billions pe…

Vaclav Smil so wildly mispredicted the trajectory of renewables that his worldview should be taken with heavy skepticism.

Howso?

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#242
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it’s led to poor use of land with questionable climate impact. In the short term, yes, because they were unnecessarily using carbon energy to grow the fuel. But if we want to de-fossilise society in the long run, we need solutions for flying and long distance travel. Electric flying seems infeasible at the moment, and people are looking for suitable bio-fuels to make flying carbon neutral. Afaik the maximum planes…

Saw a recent post about an electric plane - was pretty sweet let me dig it up. $5 worth of fuel! > https://www.heartaerospace.com/newsroom/heart-aerospace-comp...

These are strictly short-haul transports, aiming for about 200km (125 mi) electric range, 800 km (500 mi) in hybrid mode with reduced passenger/payload load.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_Aerospace#ES-30>

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#243
post #239
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brother, nothing in my comment did I learn from American sources as a result of this trade war. I've found our dairy cartel silly for a long time. Look at the impact of NZ and Australia removing their quota system around the turn of the century. I just don't like how opaque the whole thing is and I don't think most Canadians have an understanding of the impact on their pocketbook.

The concept of an entirely unrestrained market, is an illusion spread primarily from US thinktanks and sources. Yet my point was, even though Americans spout blather about market intervention via Governments, they do it too . Australia and NZ are bad examples. They are incredibly isolated for fresh milk competitors, and fresh cheese too. We, meanwhile, have a market 10x larger next door. But beyond that every governm…

Yeah, I actually think we're relatively aligned here. I'm not saying burn it all down, free market, fuck the goals.

I'm just saying, and I know this is an estimate, but if you take the $244/annum/pp estimate from studies as to the cost of supply chain management... you're looking at about $10 billion per year.

Broadly, I think the goal of our supply chain management is to preserve a robust domestic dairy, poultry, and egg industry, maintain emergency production capacity, support rural communities, smooth out extreme price volatility, and ensure farmers can survive downturns.

I'd just be very surprised, if we asked ourselves, ok, how can we most efficiently achieve the above, and actually tried to solve the above problems from first principles today, we'd land on the current solution. It just feels like we should be able to achieve a much better outcome for $10 billion dollars, or we should be able to achieve the equivalent of the current outcome for far less than $10 billion.

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#244
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is possibly the craziest goddamn conversation I've ever seen on HN. Michalena's swedish meatballs are like $1.50 for 350 calories[0]. It's been a while since college, but I would guess they are delicious when compared to Walter's shoe-leather brand steak. Mac-n-cheese of various offbrands also cheap, and potato flakes ridiculously cheap. Marie Callender and Stouffer's are not cheap, they are convenient. Steak ta…

A pound of fresh ground pork is ~$1.25 and it's 1100 calories. Throw in all the other stuff to make the swedish meatballs and you are coming out way ahead. The "poor tax" in processed food is that they are paying double to triple the underlying food cost to have someone else make the food for them. I'm confident that if you meal prepped Swedish meatballs, you would be able to make something 10x healthier for 1/3 the…

My grocery store and Walmart are both charging ~4$/lb, where exactly are you getting 1.25$ ground pork?

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Smithfield-All-Natural-Fresh-Grou...

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#245
post #86
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaclav Smil so wildly mispredicted the trajectory of renewables that his worldview should be taken with heavy skepticism.

That's true of basically all economists' predictions of technology. But he does a lot more than state predictions, his numbers and breakdowns and decompositioba are valuable in themselves.

Possibly, but economists can simply not make those predictions. Smil focused on them. It was a core of what he was saying, and he got it very wrong.

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#246
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaclav Smil so wildly mispredicted the trajectory of renewables that his worldview should be taken with heavy skepticism.

Howso?

He observed that historically energy transitions took 50-100 years and then concluded a renewable energy transition would take a similar amount of time. This is of course a non sequitur, an example of the hazards of inductive reasoning.

Since he made those predictions renewables grew many times faster, and with a much shorter doubling time, than he had predicted. But even before that renewables were on an experience curve that would have rendered his predictions implausible.

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#247
post #243
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The concept of an entirely unrestrained market, is an illusion spread primarily from US thinktanks and sources. Yet my point was, even though Americans spout blather about market intervention via Governments, they do it too . Australia and NZ are bad examples. They are incredibly isolated for fresh milk competitors, and fresh cheese too. We, meanwhile, have a market 10x larger next door. But beyond that every governm…

Yeah, I actually think we're relatively aligned here. I'm not saying burn it all down, free market, fuck the goals. I'm just saying, and I know this is an estimate, but if you take the $244/annum/pp estimate from studies as to the cost of supply chain management... you're looking at about $10 billion per year. Broadly, I think the goal of our supply chain management is to preserve a robust domestic dairy, poultry, an…

A hate just pointing at the cost, because where does that money go? What is that cost? Is it just more cash in the pockets of producers? Who then hire people to work on the farm, and all that blather?

Is it a bloated bureaucracy, which needs some trimming, but still regardless pays wages to Canadians?

Are other things wrapped into that $10B?

Also, it seems those numbers aren't just dairy, but chicken too?

And another thing (I'm full of ideas today, sorry), we don't use hormones to increase milk production, or bulk up animals. That definitely means more cost per animal. That figure seems to also include chicken meat, not just eggs. Healthy isn't necessarily free.

Look, you find horrible costs, I'll support you. I think that's fair.

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#248
post #247
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I actually think we're relatively aligned here. I'm not saying burn it all down, free market, fuck the goals. I'm just saying, and I know this is an estimate, but if you take the $244/annum/pp estimate from studies as to the cost of supply chain management... you're looking at about $10 billion per year. Broadly, I think the goal of our supply chain management is to preserve a robust domestic dairy, poultry, an…

A hate just pointing at the cost, because where does that money go? What is that cost? Is it just more cash in the pockets of producers? Who then hire people to work on the farm, and all that blather? Is it a bloated bureaucracy, which needs some trimming, but still regardless pays wages to Canadians? Are other things wrapped into that $10B? Also, it seems those numbers aren't just dairy, but chicken too? And another…

Hah, no worries brother. Yeah, I agree keep bovine growth hormone the fuck out of our supply. And yes, its poultry, eggs, and milk products wrapped up in the $10 billion.

I agree generally that just looking at cost often misses the bigger picture, but it's the magnitude of it here that gets me. $10 billion is equivalent to 2% of the federal budget!

We spend a similar amount in the budget, $10.7 billion, to ensure the viability and sustainability of all our crown corporations with the exception of CMHC! So, a national railway, a national postal service, a public broadcaster, museums, infrastructure entities, finance institutions, housing institutions, export support, tourism, bridges, agricultural finance, and thirty other random Crown things… All made viable for approximately the equivalent of the cost born by Canadians to support chicken, egg, and milk producers.

And, it's not like this is our entire food supply. Massive error bars here, but based on the average consumption numbers for Canadians in the egg, poultry, and dairy categories, which, the dairy part is admittedly quite fuzzy... But my back of the napkin math suggests that's somewhere between 10-20% of the caloric/nutritional needs of Canadians, so it's not like it's securing the majority of the food supply for Canadians, we're very much still dependent on the global food production.

Ultimately, I believe what it comes down to, is that a different system that would likely be more effective at achieving similar outcomes, would force some level of support onto the federal government and hit the budget. Whereas the current system allows the government to say, we've created a system that doesn't depend on government subsidies! Yes, we've done that, but it's effectively a regressive tax that hits consumers at the checkout.

Anyhow, I am not an expert on food supply, so I don't know what exactly a better solution would look like. But, we're currently all in on a system that was developed in the 1970s, and it has a feeling of 'too big to fail'. That to me, is a recipe for horrible inefficiency, and given the magnitude of the numbers, I can't help but feel that we'd be well served to take a deeper look at the situation and consider whether there's a better way to achieve the outcomes at lower cost to Canadians. Hell, even if we determine, nope switching over to a subsidy model paid by the government would cost the exact same amount for the same outcome, at least it would achieve a more equitable outcome for Canadians in switching from a regressive to a progressive tax.

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#249
post #86
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaclav Smil so wildly mispredicted the trajectory of renewables that his worldview should be taken with heavy skepticism.

That's true of basically all economists' predictions of technology. But he does a lot more than state predictions, his numbers and breakdowns and decompositioba are valuable in themselves.

TBF: Smil is a technologist, not an economist.

Re: Coconut oil jet fuel matches kerosene's efficiency in engine tests

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Howso?

He observed that historically energy transitions took 50-100 years and then concluded a renewable energy transition would take a similar amount of time. This is of course a non sequitur, an example of the hazards of inductive reasoning. Since he made those predictions renewables grew many times faster, and with a much shorter doubling time, than he had predicted. But even before that renewables were on an experience…

Fair point, though I'd give him a bit more credit.

By pointing out both the necessity of the transition and the historically slow pace of such transitions, Smil is raising the pressure on achieving such a transition rather than encouraging complaisance and/or excessive tolerance of the rate of change to date.

And despite the current pace of change, we're still far from goals with impacts of failure to move off fossil fuels ever more evident.

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