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The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

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Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#71

Post by llm_nerd »

ericmay wrote: post #66
llm_nerd wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So you wouldn't take issue with an America quota on assembled motor vehicles, for example, since that wouldn't be a tariff? Maybe that automaker moves most of its facilities back to the US and now yea you've got one factory making 10,000 cars/year or something and that's under the quota, but you were effectively tariffed anyway because to maintain facilities would breach the quota that was set. Were you outright tar…

> You've returned to this example twice now. And it's interesting. Did you know Canada imports and buys more vehicles from the US than we export to the US? So what? We could still enact a quota on imports regardless of exports. If anything that would be ideal (ask China, Germany) in some ways. But you can just substitute autos for any other random product - the specific product is, as I know you are well aware, isn't…

> So what?

You specifically chose a thing that Trump has tried to use as a lever multiple times. Again, I want 100% of vehicle production from the US barred from Canada. A 0 vehicle quota. Let the US automakers collapse into the eventual failure that is coming.

> We could still enact a quota on imports regardless of exports.

Huh? What does this even mean. When there are two parties to an agreement. If the US did that, we'd do it in return. I mean, we did (to yield hysterical tantrums by the criminal empire). Just as the dairy agreement goes both ways.

"But Canada's market is small and we're big and only we matter" - I mean, 40 million affluent buyers is a huge market, and much, much smaller markets do well. We'll just block all US vehicles and we'll serve ourselves. It'll be disruptive and people desperate for the status quo will fear monger, but so be it. New world order.

And it's hysterical how Americans desperately want everyone to believe that Canada's market is too small to matter. It sure as shit matters to your automakers, who have been creaming their diapers at every disruption.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#73

Post by carefulfungi »

lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I'm trying to think of the number of people I (an American) know who considered trade with Canada to be a real issue. The answer I keep coming back to is I know zero people who considered that. Does the US have a trade imbalance that causes problems, particularly in our manufacturing sector? Yes. Can tariffs kind of help with that? Also yes. Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in busines…

As an American, I don't see see how you can separate this trade talk from the constant, explicit threats to Canadian sovereignty by Trump - threats he's carried out in reality against Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba. And now economically against Canada.

It isn't just "which Americans consider trade with Canada to be a real issue," it is "which Americans think Canada should become a territory of the United States."

It's just plainly absurd. It is inexplicable to me that Congress doesn't act. And infuriating to me that my representatives in Congress don't do more (even though they are in the opposition.)

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#74

Post by epolanski »

davidw wrote: post #42
ericmay wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but since Canada is also initiating new tariffs (they've had existing ones for specific products and industries already) so anything said here applies to Canada as well. For example Canadian tariffs increase prices and their retaliatory tariffs also reduce demand for Canadian products leading to job losses.

They are willing to bear some pain in order to hit back at the US administration. And they're pretty united - Doug Ford for instance is not on the same team as Mark Carney - but has been very vocal about striking back. It's really a singular achievement to piss off such a good neighbor so badly.

And don't forget the Greenland threats, those for us Europeans, and in European foreign affairs are a line of non return.

Other administrations will not be able to repair the damage, because what was exposed really is that the US system allows for each administration to destroy and 180 whatever the previous one did.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#75

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

cwillu wrote: post #45
ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

If you're going to talk about canadian dairy tariffs, please note that (a) this was originally negotiated by trump the last time he was in office, and (b) the tariff only applies when the total imports exceed a limit, which iirc has never actually been exceeded.

The limits are often covered pretty misleadingly. If you were to just order a truckload of American butter and import it, you'd be subject to the over-quota tariff regardless of whether the cap was reached. In order to get the preferential rate, you have to file a formal application to use the quota (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/controls-cont...), which is subject to all kind of restrictions and limitations. In particular, grocery stores aren't allowed to use the butter quota at all, so if you have some fancy butter you'd like to convince Loblaws to stock you'll always have to pay the higher rate.

(I would emphasize that I don't think this is bad in some cosmic sense, and Canadians have every right to keep the shelves stocked with Canadian butter only if they would like.)

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#76

Post by [deleted] »

ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

[deleted]

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#77

Post by epolanski »

declan_roberts wrote: post #52

Canada is very unfortunately caught in the trade war between the USA and China. It's pretty easy right now for certain goods to bypass the US tariffs by being transshipped through Canada and enter the USA without tariff because of minimal processing. Chinese steel is a notable example of this. And a lot of Canada's trade MOUs with other countries basically requires they have this special privilege. So there's gonna b…

No, Canada is just the last in line of this US administration's mission of alienating and pissing off every single ally while bending to enemies and Israel.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#78

Post by lenerdenator »

ajmurmann wrote: post #30
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I'm trying to think of the number of people I (an American) know who considered trade with Canada to be a real issue. The answer I keep coming back to is I know zero people who considered that. Does the US have a trade imbalance that causes problems, particularly in our manufacturing sector? Yes. Can tariffs kind of help with that? Also yes. Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in busines…

Every side benefits from a trade. That's why the trade is made. The US is able to afford a trader imbalance because the USD is the world's reserve currency. Other countries are subsidizing our trade imbalance. It's a huge win for the US. Tariffs will not bring back manufacturing. They increase prices of inputs, reduce incentive for competitiveness and invite retaliation. Look how well tariffs have worked for Brazil a…

> The US is able to afford a trader imbalance because the USD is the world's reserve currency. Other countries are subsidizing our trade imbalance. It's a huge win for the US.

The geopolitical calculations regarding China and the socioeconomic conditions of working class people in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States would beg to differ.

You need to have at least some control of your own manufacturing destiny for national security reasons, and you need somewhere for people with a high school diploma to work or they start dying deaths of despair.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#79

Post by [deleted] »

kevin_nisbet wrote: post #34
bryanlarsen wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America's trade imbalance with Canada is basically crude oil. Which they get at a significant discount because it's much more expensive to export anywhere else. America then refines it and exports it as finished product or uses it internally -- one of the reasons why America has relatively cheap gasoline prices. This "trade imbalance" is a massive benefit to America.

I've seen this point in a few different places and I don't know that it's understood as widely as it should be. So just to expand on why that's the case. As a net producer of energy right now, the US produces more than it consumes. This is why it get's pointed out, that as a net producer, the trade deficit with Canada is also a surplus (or reduction in deficit) on the other side with other countries. Yes it may not b…

[deleted]

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#80

Post by SmirkingRevenge »

ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

That is definitely a flatly wrong statement. Unfortunately, it reinforces the Trumpian disinformation that tariffs are fees that other countries pay us... or something.

Trump is taxing Americans when he imposes tariffs. Canada is taxing Canadians when they impose retaliatory tariffs.

And FWIW, most economists think retaliatory tariffs are stupid - on net they cause more harm to the retaliating country than if there were no retaliation. But the politics around tariffs are stupid too. It's all stupid.

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