I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M. Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations. If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?
Same here
Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
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Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#12Why not let people try it from abroad? Not in the USA? No luck.
Why does the withdrawal rate need to be a multiple of 0.5%?
It's curious that the highest chance was associated with the highest (100%) stock ratio.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#13I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M. Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations. If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?
That's because the withdrawals are 4%. If you have $3M, maybe lower the withdrawals to 1.25%. That would be the same as 4% of $1M.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#14I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M. Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations. If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?
That's because the withdrawals are 4%. If you have $3M, maybe lower the withdrawals to 1.25%. That would be the same as 4% of $1M.
I don't think that's accurate.
If I withdraw 4% of a $1M portfolio, I only have $960K left to compound.
If I withdraw 4% of a $3M portfolio, I should have $2.88M left to compound.
If the question is "Will your money last?" I would not expect the simulation results to be identical.
Edit: I failed here. Downvotes are right. I simulated it myself and saw the results. Leaving this comment here so others can learn from my mistake.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#15I didn't want to put in my email address in order to access the detailed calculator... The quick check doesn't have nearly enough information to give anyone an idea of what actually to expect...
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#16This doesn't know the important part. Will I live to 62 as the earliest of my ancestors died, or 98 as the latest? My family history is about average for lifespan but that is a big difference. If I live to 62 I should retire at 50 - or perhaps I shouldn't have bothered saving at all since the growth isn't there. Of medical advances make me love to 150 I should save until I'm 80 which will be a nice income to really e…
So the thing is that no one knows that part.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#17It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme cherry-picking: America has had a pretty exceptional run these last 100+ years. Any retirement simulator cannot assume that America's exceptional growth will continue. Maybe it will, but you cannot plan on a maybe.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#18This doesn't know the important part. Will I live to 62 as the earliest of my ancestors died, or 98 as the latest? My family history is about average for lifespan but that is a big difference. If I live to 62 I should retire at 50 - or perhaps I shouldn't have bothered saving at all since the growth isn't there. Of medical advances make me love to 150 I should save until I'm 80 which will be a nice income to really e…
So the thing is that no one knows that part.
Can't we just get AI to tell us? I'm sure it will confidently give an answer.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#19huh, yesterday I vibe coded a similar tool. It lets me set my current savings, investment, retirement. Expected yearly savings, expected number of years of work left. After retirement, only withdrawals are allowed (investments, savings still get returns tho)
Codex suggested a bunch of improvements: monte carlo, investment volatility, expense inflation, capital gains tax etc. One thing codex didn't ask about was social security. So that's another factor that could be improved.
I wanted to know 'do I really need to work 30 more years?'
What would be really interesting is discovering an attainable formula where my investments outpace my expenses. Or, what variables let me die with basically $0 in the bank
At the end, I realized I had no idea what the calculator was REALLY doing. So it could be right... it could be really wrong too. Having historical data might help solve those issues
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#20Why not let people try it from abroad? Not in the USA? No luck. Why does the withdrawal rate need to be a multiple of 0.5%? It's curious that the highest chance was associated with the highest (100%) stock ratio.
I'm in NZ and it worked. It gave me US figures and numbers though. And I find there are existing FIRE calculators already out there that are tried and true.