Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
foresightplanner.com
Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
1–10 of 44 posts
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#2I got tired of retirement calculators that either assume one fixed return forever, or run Monte Carlo by pulling each year independently out of a bell curve. Real markets don't behave like that. Bad years cluster, and a crash in your first three years of retirement is a completely different problem from the same crash at 85.
So this one samples multi-year blocks out of actual history instead: 25 countries, 1900 to 2025, reassembled into thousands of possible futures. It's a stationary block bootstrap, which is the standard approach in the lifecycle-investing literature. When a plan fails it tells you which way it failed, whether that was weak growth, bad sequencing, or inflation at the wrong moment.
Canada and the US have full tax and benefit modelling (RRSP/TFSA and CPP/OAS on one side, 401(k)/IRA and Social Security on the other). Everywhere else you get a pre-tax projection. If you're in the EU or UK you can run the Quick Check, but you can't sign up yet, because I haven't finished the compliance work.
There's no account linking, and the Quick Check needs no signup at all. The methodology is written up at /methodology. It's an educational tool, not financial advice.
It's free right now. Paid plans come later, and there's a founding rate if you want to lock one in early: $50/year for as long as you stay subscribed, first 50 people. https://buy.stripe.com/14A7sN6Gycny54rdXv5Rm01 Nothing is gated behind it today.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#3Why do I need to sign into everything these days? The moment I see that I close the site.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#4Why do I need to sign into everything these days? The moment I see that I close the site.
You don’t need to for its quick check, which shows the core feature.
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#5So its a monte carlo simulation but I can't enter growth rate country time horizons or anything like that?
Brother I have a better claude code vibe app than this in an hour
You need to really talk to a financial planner and learn what the proper inputs are
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#6Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#7This doesn't know the important part. Will I live to 62 as the earliest of my ancestors died, or 98 as the latest? My family history is about average for lifespan but that is a big difference. If I live to 62 I should retire at 50 - or perhaps I shouldn't have bothered saving at all since the growth isn't there. Of medical advances make me love to 150 I should save until I'm 80 which will be a nice income to really enjoy the rest of my life.
I want more defined benefit accounts, but they are hard to find
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#8Better be safe I guess:
Foresight Planner is not yet available in your region. We're launching in Canada (excluding Quebec) first. We don't yet support Quebec, because we don't yet offer the product in French. If you'd like us to let you know when we expand, email hi@foresightplanner.com.
Foresight Planner n'est pas encore disponible dans votre région. Nous lançons d'abord au Canada (hors Québec). Pour être informé·e de l'élargissement de notre service, écrivez à hi@foresightplanner.com.
Region: CA-QC
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#9I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M.
Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations.
If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?
Re: Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries
#10Why do I need to sign into everything these days? The moment I see that I close the site.
You don’t need to for its quick check, which shows the core feature.
You need it to dig deeper. I have a pension which I can get at 65.
I have options to collect social security. What if I draw my 401k first and wait until 72 to start as? Or I can get take as at 62 and the 401k grows more...
Edit point is you need an account to start asking those questions.