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Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

gatesnotes.com

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Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#91

Post by ford »

I'm interested how to mitigate risk without over-regulating & stifling innovation from exactly the people who are most thoughtful about the risk (which is who we should want innovating & leading).

Even though this article is new, I'm not sure it has materially new ideas vs what some other labs have been claiming for years.

Enforcing safeguards that apply globally to good and bad actors alike so far as proved quite difficult - compute is essentially the only lever, and that's tenuous at best.

Unlike nuclear arms (where functionally there's a limit at MAD), so far we believe that with enough compute, energy, and algorithms, intelligence will continue to scale (and not only scale - but compound)

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#92

Post by lenerdenator »

YackerLose wrote: post #21
dostick wrote: post #13

> We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates. And I thought he is a smart man. This is so last century thinking. We need to prepare that there will definitely be no jobs for everyone and that will be falling all the time, it’s not a one-time event you should “prepare for”. There’s nothing to prepare, we already have funds and productivity to feed a…

Somehow, I don't think the people with all the money, gunmen and (soon) robots will be OK with the world you envision.

Well, they don't have all of the second one.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#93

Post by salemh »

sophrosyne42 wrote: post #49
swed420 wrote: post #12

> Instead, solutions should be developed through a public democratic process that includes elected officials, policymakers, educators, health workers, local officials, and community leaders. Millions of people will have their lives disrupted, and we’ll need a stronger, more flexible social safety net to help them manage the transition. Local communities are already raising concerns about the energy and water needed f…

Election denialism is unbecoming of anyone with a brain

[dead]

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#95

Post by octopoc »

sophrosyne42 wrote: post #49
swed420 wrote: post #12

> Instead, solutions should be developed through a public democratic process that includes elected officials, policymakers, educators, health workers, local officials, and community leaders. Millions of people will have their lives disrupted, and we’ll need a stronger, more flexible social safety net to help them manage the transition. Local communities are already raising concerns about the energy and water needed f…

Election denialism is unbecoming of anyone with a brain

Political campaigns spend enormous amounts of money on ads to influence public opinion. That makes politicians beholden to their donors. Which subverts democracy from "the will of the people" to "the will of the wealthy". All of these are uncontroversial facts and fit the narrative GP is saying.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#96

Post by speak_plainly »

YackerLose wrote: post #21
dostick wrote: post #13

> We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates. And I thought he is a smart man. This is so last century thinking. We need to prepare that there will definitely be no jobs for everyone and that will be falling all the time, it’s not a one-time event you should “prepare for”. There’s nothing to prepare, we already have funds and productivity to feed a…

Somehow, I don't think the people with all the money, gunmen and (soon) robots will be OK with the world you envision.

[dead]

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#97

Post by dfxm12 »

debo_ wrote: post #19
dostick wrote: post #13

> We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates. And I thought he is a smart man. This is so last century thinking. We need to prepare that there will definitely be no jobs for everyone and that will be falling all the time, it’s not a one-time event you should “prepare for”. There’s nothing to prepare, we already have funds and productivity to feed a…

I support UBI and wealth taxes, but I also think generally that will be a difficult transition in terms of social upheaval. There are so many people I know who are financially well-off but completely fall apart when there is no visible professional hierarchy to give them meaning. One would hope that this would still go down better than destituting large percentages of the world population, but I wonder.

Based in your first two sentences, I think your understanding of UBI is mistaken. You seem to be under the impression that people don't or can't have a job when there is UBI. This is not the case. If you don't believe me, just look at Alaska.

Everyone enjoys some sort of benefit, tax break, subsidy, etc. from the government. UBI is the same thing in the form of a regular, universal transfer payment. Nothing more, nothing less.

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#98

Post by ford »

shay_ker wrote: post #45

> In the United States, I’ve met families who, understandably, were overwhelmed by the process of applying for health insurance, student aid, or food assistance. Faced with a huge stack of complicated bureaucratic forms, many felt like giving up. AI can streamline things dramatically I'd love to see anyone building Grokbot or ChatGPT Work talk about how they're thinking about this use case, specifically. It seems gre…

It'd be nice if we could change the bureaucratic process, not the interface

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#99

Post by justonepost2 »

simianwords wrote: post #14

It’s a good thoughtful piece. If I may suggest, the main problem and I mean the actual main problem are those people who underestimate the capabilities of AI. The ones who think it hallucinates all the time, unreliable and mostly useless. The average person thinks this technology is overhyped (like Emily Bender) so how would one even begin to have a conversation with them on the risks?

I also think the "main problem" is people that annoy me on the internet

Re: Bill Gates: The turbulent AI era is here

#100

Post by lanfeust6 »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #61
lanfeust6 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, anti-vax is comparatively much older with a spike during the pandemic, but even the more recent global populist phenomenon preceded the salience of AI. Software hiring rate has rebounded this year. Even those most impacted aren't looking very "obsolete" yet. But leaving the uncertain future aside, this idea that being economically unproductive means the wealthy would want to "purge" you is for the birds, it doesn…

No, anti-vax is comparatively much older... Yes but official anti-vax *policy* changes are new.

That was basically a foregone conclusion when RFK JR was picked for HHS during the '24 election. It's popular with the base, especially since the pandemic. Still doesn't make sense to tie it to anything AI related.

edit: "the other eliminates people". Lol, for this to make any rational sense, it would have to impact a significant segment of the population, and it simply does not. Even as covid goes, the most vulnerable were over 60 years old.

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