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Oceans hit highest temperature on record

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Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#661

Post by senordevnyc »

sfn42 wrote: post #659
senordevnyc wrote: post #656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem really upset at the mere suggestion that this might be feasible one day. Why?

I'm just explaining to you why this technology will almost certainly not solve the problem, it likely won't even make a dent in the problem. I believe this is an important point to make because it looks to me like the primary effect (and maybe also intended effect?) of carbon capture efforts is to encourage complacency. "Don't worry about these emissions, we'll just slurp the CO2 back up later and fix everything". It…

Can you point to any evidence for the idea that climate change will be the end of human civilization? I’m fully onboard with the scientific consensus around climate change, but I haven’t seen anything credible suggesting it’ll be anything close to civilization-ending. Even RCP 8.5, which was dropped for being implausible, doesn’t predict effects anywhere close to ending a global civilization of ten billion people.

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#662

Post by Yizahi »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #612
Yizahi wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw those too. They look wildly optimistic, on top of being based on a wildly optimistic efficiency of the aerosols themselves, compounding the issue. But even assuming that - I read that multiple tens of megatons of aerosols need to be dispersed each year, on a regular basis. That alone doesn't look like a 2-3 measly billion job. Just a small fleet of 10 old narrowbody jets would cost at least 1 billion per year t…

'Termination shock' will be a very real threat, and lets not pretend that injecting sulfides into the atmosphere is going to improve air quality or help the ozone layer. Best option is to rapidly cut emissions, but I think we can already see that we're not going to chose the best option here. Hopefully SAI can give us the time we need to decarbonize, but I'm sick that we're gonna have to geoengineer at all.

Yeah, that too is a huge concern for me. But we do need to start at least something, anything and not a day to soon. The oven is heating up and fiddling with temp regulator between III or II or I won't matter one bit in the end, the oven will heat up to 250 degrees eventually, unless we either stop electricity or actively externally cool it somehow.

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#663

Post by sfn42 »

senordevnyc wrote: post #661
sfn42 wrote: post #659

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just explaining to you why this technology will almost certainly not solve the problem, it likely won't even make a dent in the problem. I believe this is an important point to make because it looks to me like the primary effect (and maybe also intended effect?) of carbon capture efforts is to encourage complacency. "Don't worry about these emissions, we'll just slurp the CO2 back up later and fix everything". It…

Can you point to any evidence for the idea that climate change will be the end of human civilization? I’m fully onboard with the scientific consensus around climate change, but I haven’t seen anything credible suggesting it’ll be anything close to civilization-ending. Even RCP 8.5, which was dropped for being implausible, doesn’t predict effects anywhere close to ending a global civilization of ten billion people.

https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5...

> there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible … the projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur.

Bonus: https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/...

> the climate change mitigation goals which have been pledged are far too low (ambition gap), and the measures which are currently being implemented and planned are not sufficient to achieve even these inadequate goals (realisation gap). This has far-reaching consequences: There is a strong probability that the ambition gap will lead to a temperature rise of 2 to 5 degrees Centigrade compared to pre-industrial temperatures by 2100, the realisation gap to a further rise of several degrees Centigrade.[1,2,VI] There is a danger that the mean temperature will already have risen by 3 degrees Centigrade by 2050

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#664

Post by senordevnyc »

sfn42 wrote: post #663
senordevnyc wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you point to any evidence for the idea that climate change will be the end of human civilization? I’m fully onboard with the scientific consensus around climate change, but I haven’t seen anything credible suggesting it’ll be anything close to civilization-ending. Even RCP 8.5, which was dropped for being implausible, doesn’t predict effects anywhere close to ending a global civilization of ten billion people.

https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5... > there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible … the projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur. Bonus: https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/... > the climate change mitigation goals which have been pledged are far too low (ambition gap), and the measures which are currently being implemented and…

there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible

That's very different from your certainty that our civilization will end. Even just reading through their list of impacts at +4C, it's horrific, but pretty clearly not civilization-ending.

IMO, this kind of hyperbole does a lot of damage to your cause. The reality is bad enough, you don't need to make things up. People eventually stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#665

Post by tsoukase »

lbriner wrote: post #2

When I was younger, I remember thinking, "a few degrees, what difference does that make?" Then when I grew older I realised that in Climate science a few degrees is the difference between survival and annihilation. A few degrees warmer in the ocean and El Niño becomes an incredible problem for half the world. I am glad that I live far away from the effects but it is sad to think of people losing all kinds of things f…

I am also in a convenient place expecting more heat (mountainous region with cold nights/winters, enough water). I admit I enjoy the warmer months and wait for people come visit me for Coolidays.

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#666

Post by tsoukase »

defgeneric wrote: post #387
willmeyers wrote: post #31

This El Niño is going to be interesting come Christmas time. Lot's of weather and climate unpredictability coming to a region near you!

Incidentally, the term El Niño came from Christmas time (the waters warm around Christmas time, or when the baby boy comes).

I think it's time to rename it to El Hombre.

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#667

Post by wat10000 »

DoctorOetker wrote: post #639
wat10000 wrote: post #614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Panama actually desalinating to make up for water they could have been getting from Chagres River if not for the canal? Panama is a tropical country that gets a lot of rain and I couldn't find any mention of this. The article you posted doesn't say anything like that.

I never claimed they were? thats what you would have to do to recover the lost fresh water. In order to compare apples to apples, I compared the costs of allowing the fresh water to be lost to the ocean, and then desalinating an equivalent amount to the costs of simply not letting the fresh water get lost to operating water locks. > that gets lots of rain just like population / industry demand and renewable supply fl…

“It's orders of magnitude more expensive to desalinate sea water than it is to simply prevent fresh water from being needlessly wasted on operating water locks...”

What is the point of this statement if desalination isn’t actually needed here?

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#668

Post by D_Alex »

maxhille wrote: post #654
D_Alex wrote: post #653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it doesn’t support your claim. In summary, Russia, after having their dollar and euro bank accounts frozen, demanded payment in roubles. It stopped supplying the gas to the customers who weren’t paying. After that, the EU announced it will stop buying Russian gas completely, and replaced it with LNG. Thus increasing the greenhouse gas emissions attributed to its gas use by about 60%. :(

"My" claim: > Putin ("Russia") turned off the gas Your summary: > Russia [...] stopped supplying the gas. [...]

Hmm… so are we agreeing that Russia turned off the gas because the EU stopped paying?

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#669

Post by CGMthrowaway »

rcpt wrote: post #205
CGMthrowaway wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are doing a lot. Almost 90% of electricity capacity added last year was renewables. Nearly 1 in 3 cars sold are now EVs. The world is spending over $2 trillion every year on low‑carbon energy investment. Solar and wind have already avoided more than 2 gigatons of CO2 being added to the atmosphere. In the US, the IRA will drop emissions 40% to below 2005 levels. What do you mean we are doing nothing?

The federal government is paying energy companies to cancel plans to build wind farms: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e1vg0gjl5o Yes we're still building renewable energy, but goddamn is our government making it hard.

Those are refunds of money already paid, it's not any extra money

Re: Oceans hit highest temperature on record

#670

Post by sfn42 »

senordevnyc wrote: post #664
sfn42 wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://unclimatesummit.org/comparing-climate-impacts-at-1-5... > there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible … the projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur. Bonus: https://www.dpg-physik.de/veroeffentlichungen/publikationen/... > the climate change mitigation goals which have been pledged are far too low (ambition gap), and the measures which are currently being implemented and…

there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible That's very different from your certainty that our civilization will end. Even just reading through their list of impacts at +4C, it's horrific, but pretty clearly not civilization-ending. IMO, this kind of hyperbole does a lot of damage to your cause. The reality is bad enough, you don't need to make things up. People eventually stop believing the boy…

What do you think adapt means? If we do not adapt we die. Those are the options. If we cannot adapt to the new climate on Earth we can not live on Earth. And we sure can't live anywhere else.

I'm not "crying wolf". You, like most people just don't want to hear it. That's why most (especially the "officially accepted") climate models are unrealistically optimistic even with their worst case scenarios. Because people who tell the truth are considered alarmist and people who sugar coat it are ignored.

Just to be clear, and because some people inexplicably seem to consider this worth even talking about, I'm not saying there won't be any humans anywhere. That might happen but there might also be some habitable places left at least for a while, maybe for a long time. Nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. If 80% of the global population were to perish I would consider this "prophecy" fulfilled. It's not important to me whether some people survive somewhere because the point is I don't want to live through (or, overwhelmingly more likely, die during) the process leading up to that and I don't want to put a new person into the world who will have to live through that. That's where my concern ends, I don't care what happens after the world as we know it is gone.

Humans do inhumane things to each other during hard times, and I guarantee you, regardless of how you define words like adaptation and civilization, there's extremely hard times coming.

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