Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve heard this phrased as “the average person has an above average number of legs”.
Wouldn't "the typical person has above average number of legs" or some such be better?
More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
161–170 of 227 posts
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
Being aware of Simpsons' paradox doesn't even help. There's no way of knowing what the right level of aggregation is without a theory.
speaking of theory, what exactly is the solution to this paradox? what happens when data just russian-dolls in both directions the deeper you look?
>A common example of Simpson's paradox involves the batting averages of players in professional baseball. It is possible for one player to have a higher batting average than another player each year for a number of years, but to have a lower batting average across all of those years. This phenomenon can occur when there are large differences in the number of at bats between the years.
The per-year values aren't weighted in the combined total average.
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, if we're telling stats jokes... A statistician is a man who with his head in the freezer and his feet in the oven can say "On the whole I feel perfectly normal." Recommended reading: 'How to lie with statistics' - Huff, 1954 :)
Bill Gates walked into a bar. Everyone was, on average, a multi millionaire.
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’d recommend reading “How to make the world count” instead of a work of a morally bankrupt guy who used the very same tricks he criticized to discredit the cancer studies of tobacco usage.
I suppose you mean the book "How to Make the World Add Up" of Tim Harford?! :-)
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#165>> found that 62% of respondents reported no or limited statistical knowledge The other 38% didn't understand the question...(my extrapolation) I did a couple semesters of statistics at uni. And I can confidently say that the number of people who can answer 3 simple questions on statistics (like say mean versus medians, confidence levels or margins of error) is, well, a rounding error from 0. Indeed, statistically, n…
I wish people had an intuitive understanding of probabilities. It seems the average person can only think in terms of "basically never happens", "fifty fifty" and "sure thing".
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wish people had an intuitive understanding of probabilities. It seems the average person can only think in terms of "basically never happens", "fifty fifty" and "sure thing".
XCOM should be added to the curriculum.
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#167>> found that 62% of respondents reported no or limited statistical knowledge The other 38% didn't understand the question...(my extrapolation) I did a couple semesters of statistics at uni. And I can confidently say that the number of people who can answer 3 simple questions on statistics (like say mean versus medians, confidence levels or margins of error) is, well, a rounding error from 0. Indeed, statistically, n…
I wish people had an intuitive understanding of probabilities. It seems the average person can only think in terms of "basically never happens", "fifty fifty" and "sure thing".
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#168No other question matters. There are some risks but the key element is the understanding of the statistical variance because that allows me to say that "ok 50% of P can afford to be down for 3 years and I won't be homeless".
Most people don't know this but most money managers(managing money for ordinary Americans) that you hire compute this number _once_ and make tiny adjustments to your portfolio(I am talking once a year maybe) and take 1-2%.
I follow this guy called Dave Stein who has a B2C product called money for the rest of us that taught me this. I am not affiliated with them in any way.
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fully agree. For example, I wish managers would be capable to handle the difference between a 40% and a 70% chance to meet the deadline.
A probability that isn't computed (or reasonably computable) is just a personal feeling. Your 40% or 70% aren't probabilities if you didn't compute the probability of at least the key events involved to arrive at the number. People say a number as their confidence to meet the deadline on a scale from 0-100.
Everybody has them, and they're not useless. Usually they're regularly updated when new information comes in.
Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wish people had an intuitive understanding of probabilities. It seems the average person can only think in terms of "basically never happens", "fifty fifty" and "sure thing".
They do have an intuitive understanding! You just outlined it, and it works well enough for most things. Statistics is generally very useful, but for individuals it's not really important or useful to understand, because the data is rarely ever clear or trustworthy enough to use for making decisions about specific situations.