More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding • Hacker News Board

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#121

Post by ANarrativeApe » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC

And even the headline gets it wrong. They asked 1,000 people, over half of whom say they lacked basic statistical understanding.

The first question was: “How much do you understand about statistics and p-values?”

not probability, p-values.

I had to look up p-values to check it meant what I thought it did to avoid making a fool of myself in this comment. I knew I was probably right, but possibly wrong.

The same goes for my assumption that this survey was engineered to deliver a bad result. Why? because it makes it easier to get funding for a the author's solution to the problem. Again, probably right, possibly wrong.

Statistics, like math, is a language, first learn the vocabulary, then you can judge the meaning

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#122

Post by Tarq0n » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC

red75prime wrote: post #46

bruce511 wrote: post #16

>> found that 62% of respondents reported no or limited statistical knowledge The other 38% didn't understand the question...(my extrapolation) I did a couple semesters of statistics at uni. And I can confidently say that the number of people who can answer 3 simple questions on statistics (like say mean versus medians, confidence levels or margins of error) is, well, a rounding error from 0. Indeed, statistically, n…

> I did however learn enough to know that statistics can tell you absolutely anything you want them to say. When told to a statistically illiterate person who isn't aware of Simpson's paradox and so on?

Being aware of Simpsons' paradox doesn't even help. There's no way of knowing what the right level of aggregation is without a theory.

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#123

Post by mr_mitm » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 8:57 AM UTC

331c8c71 wrote: post #81

mr_mitm wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish people had an intuitive understanding of probabilities. It seems the average person can only think in terms of "basically never happens", "fifty fifty" and "sure thing".

I think almost everyone threw a dice quite a few times while playing board games.

And yet they struggle with the abstract concept. They'll wonder why the candidate with a projected 20% chance of winning won. They won't know what to do with the information of a 70% chance of rain tomorrow. "Either it will rain or it won't, which is it!" Perhaps it's the frequentist approach that comes more natural than the Bayesian approach, who knows.

This isn't my original thought, by the way. Someone wrote more about it here: https://towardsdatascience.com/humans-are-bad-at-probability...

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#124

Post by steinwinde » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 8:57 AM UTC

yoz-y wrote: post #92

dcminter wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if we're telling stats jokes... A statistician is a man who with his head in the freezer and his feet in the oven can say "On the whole I feel perfectly normal." Recommended reading: 'How to lie with statistics' - Huff, 1954 :)

I’d recommend reading “How to make the world count” instead of a work of a morally bankrupt guy who used the very same tricks he criticized to discredit the cancer studies of tobacco usage.

I suppose you mean the book "How to Make the World Add Up" of Tim Harford?! :-)

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#125

Post by dolmen » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 8:58 AM UTC

> More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

So, when surveyed, they tell they are in the other half than they really are?

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#126

Post by card_zero » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

yoz-y wrote: post #92

dcminter wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if we're telling stats jokes... A statistician is a man who with his head in the freezer and his feet in the oven can say "On the whole I feel perfectly normal." Recommended reading: 'How to lie with statistics' - Huff, 1954 :)

I’d recommend reading “How to make the world count” instead of a work of a morally bankrupt guy who used the very same tricks he criticized to discredit the cancer studies of tobacco usage.

I'd recommend reading whichever book is better.

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#127

Post by mcapodici » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC

unsnap_biceps wrote: post #94

applfanboysbgon wrote: post #58

38% of Americans say they have some familiarity with statistics. On a somewhat related note, 8% of Americans say they can beat a gorilla in a fist-fight.

I can beat a gorilla in a fist fight because it's gonna rip my body in half, but lose by disqualification due to rules violations. A posthumous win is still a win.

That has to be the most absurd but technically correct thing I have read.

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#128

Post by latexr » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 9:09 AM UTC

tails4e wrote: post #76

saulpw wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After all the average human has one breast and one testicle.

Amd less than 2 legs. If even one person has 1 leg, then the average is strictly less than 2.

I’ve heard this phrased as “the average person has an above average number of legs”.

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#129

Post by qznc » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 9:15 AM UTC

mr_mitm wrote: post #63

bruce511 wrote: post #16

>> found that 62% of respondents reported no or limited statistical knowledge The other 38% didn't understand the question...(my extrapolation) I did a couple semesters of statistics at uni. And I can confidently say that the number of people who can answer 3 simple questions on statistics (like say mean versus medians, confidence levels or margins of error) is, well, a rounding error from 0. Indeed, statistically, n…

I wish people had an intuitive understanding of probabilities. It seems the average person can only think in terms of "basically never happens", "fifty fifty" and "sure thing".

Fully agree. For example, I wish managers would be capable to handle the difference between a 40% and a 70% chance to meet the deadline.

Re: More than half of adults in U.S. say they lack basic statistical understanding

#130

Post by LandR » Wed, Aug 26, 2026, 9:20 AM UTC

I was having a conversation with my dad about how if a virus had a 10% death rate it would be terrifying.

His reply was that 10% was nothing, that means you've got 90% chance to survive. Then said you've probably got a 10% chance of being hit by a bus every time you cross the road. Just absolutely no idea what probabilities are at all or ability to extrapolate probabilities from real world lived experience.