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You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#61

Post by portLAN »

rms wrote: post #60
portLAN wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you follow a long enough chain of definitions in this way you can prove white = black. That's pretty amusing. Whim -> arbitrary doesn't exactly constitute a long chain. Might want to start employing your proofreading team for your comments ;) I'll refer you to one of my other responses: "Not to mention, a substantial number of people haven't even built anything, which means they really have no choice but to judg…

Taking two days to reply makes you automatically lose the debate. Sorry.

> Taking two days to reply makes you automatically lose the debate. Sorry.

It might occur to you that some people are busy working on their start-ups rather than spending all their time debating points of little consequence on YC news. I haven't posted at all in two days, not just on that thread.

It's also pretty hilarious you think you need to "award" Paul the "win", on his own site, based on a made-up technicality.

I can tell you don't really believe what he said, otherwise you wouldn't be trying to score brownie points! You want the whim in your favor.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#62

Post by rms »

portLAN wrote: post #61
rms wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking two days to reply makes you automatically lose the debate. Sorry.

> Taking two days to reply makes you automatically lose the debate. Sorry. It might occur to you that some people are busy working on their start-ups rather than spending all their time debating points of little consequence on YC news. I haven't posted at all in two days, not just on that thread. It's also pretty hilarious you think you need to "award" Paul the "win", on his own site, based on a made-up technicality.…

You are debating nothing here. "Perfectly calculated and optimal decision" versus "whim" falls on a continuum. They try to evaluate the applications and interviewees very quickly. This results in some less than optimal decisions. Still, it's too much to call their decision making progress a whim, because there is much more to it than completely arbitrary choice.

I wish they devoted more time to the decision making process, because I remain convinced that our outcome with YC would have been much different with a 1 hour interview instead of a 15 minute interview. The seedcamp interview process is orders of magnitude better and more fair from a founder's perspective.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#63

Post by portLAN »

rms wrote: post #62
portLAN wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taking two days to reply makes you automatically lose the debate. Sorry. It might occur to you that some people are busy working on their start-ups rather than spending all their time debating points of little consequence on YC news. I haven't posted at all in two days, not just on that thread. It's also pretty hilarious you think you need to "award" Paul the "win", on his own site, based on a made-up technicality.…

You are debating nothing here. "Perfectly calculated and optimal decision" versus "whim" falls on a continuum. They try to evaluate the applications and interviewees very quickly. This results in some less than optimal decisions. Still, it's too much to call their decision making progress a whim, because there is much more to it than completely arbitrary choice. I wish they devoted more time to the decision making pr…

> Still, it's too much to call their decision making progress a whim, because there is much more to it than completely arbitrary choice.

I didn't say the process was completely arbitrary or only whim. I said not to leave your fate up to someone else's whim -- which is probably what it comes down to for the group of "maybes". Whim is generally the make-it-or-break-it deciding factor. And when there are more unknowns -- as with applicants who lack experience, or lack a demo -- it plays an increasingly larger role.

> I wish they devoted more time to the decision making process, because I remain convinced that our outcome with YC would have been much different with a 1 hour interview instead of a 15 minute interview.

You're essentially saying now that YC lacked solid reasons for making their decision because the process is too brief. I agree. They don't have that much information, and they don't spend that much time on it. They make a call one way or the other and then go on to the next applicant.

> The seedcamp interview process is orders of magnitude better and more fair from a founder's perspective.

Which is to say, it is less based on whim than YC.

Edit: And one more thing -- your chances are always better if they like you personally, and almost always zero if they don't. That is why whim plays a big part in any human relationship, and investing is no exception. If they like you enough, that is often all it takes. I've heard and read interviews with VCs that go like this: I didn't understand what they were talking about, but I didn't care, I said, "I like you guys, here's some money, now go build it."

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#64

Post by cwilbur »

Bzzzt. Bad use of statistics, because it's not a matter of chance. The ideas that fit best with YC's ideas of what a Y Combinator startup should look like and look like they have the best shot at succeeding win.

This is not a matter of chance. If your idea lines up perfectly with YC's vision, you get in, no matter how many other people apply. If your idea is completely unworkable for YC's goals (such as: you have a single founder, you're planning to run the startup indefinitely rather than sell it ), you may as well not apply, because even if there are 25 slots and 20 applicants you'll probably be rejected.

Re: You have a 1 in 20 chance of being chosen by YC. Pretty good odds!

#65

Post by pg »

cwilbur wrote: post #64

Bzzzt. Bad use of statistics, because it's not a matter of chance. The ideas that fit best with YC's ideas of what a Y Combinator startup should look like and look like they have the best shot at succeeding win. This is not a matter of chance . If your idea lines up perfectly with YC's vision, you get in, no matter how many other people apply. If your idea is completely unworkable for YC's goals (such as: you have a…

You don't know what you're talking about. We've funded several single founders, and we actually prefer people who want to run the company indefinitely. We make very little from early acquisitions.
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