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Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

larsfaye.com

231–240 of 574 posts

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#231
post #48

100% We're already seeing this at the enterprise level. Companies have dictates from leadership that "if you're writing code manually, you're doing it wrong." Okay, that kind of works for a while. We are indeed producing a shit-ton of code, but the reality is that engineers are pumping out code faster than the humans can understand and (honestly) review it. That sounds great until you realize that "hey Claude, read t…

Maybe some day, not in the short term. I've seen output of bad developers using Fable and after that I sleep safe. A bad or below average dev with AI will run your product and company into the ground in a matter of weeks.

> A bad or below average dev with AI will run your product and company into the ground in a matter of weeks.

I had a recent experience with this. Although it was months and not weeks and there were other factors into play such as the market etc but the last company i was in had a poor engineering culture with inexperienced engineers equipped with AI output some of the lowest quality features for both customer-facing products and internal dev tools. A lot of customers churned, and im sure quality us part of the reason.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#232

A list of things, that were supposed to lead to our intellectual demise: - Writing (starting from Platos Phaedrus) - Printed books - Photography - Typewriters, keyboards - Telephones - Recorded music - Television - Wikipedia - GPS navigation - Smartphones - Automation in aviation, medicine, industries

Speaking on a handful of these that I'm familiar enough with to opine on:

- Photography hasn't erased other visual arts. Both require a separate skillset; both have their uses and their enthusiasts. Photography benefits from having a lower skill floor, in my experience doing it, and this in turn has led to commercial photography eclipsing commercial painting (barring things like painting buildings) as a viable business model, largely.

  I'm not sure if we're better or worse off as a society for having gone through that shift.
- Television is arguably not a net positive in society (I won't say net negative yet, but there are some reasonable arguments for that position). It enables a form of passive consumption that allows bad arguments to come through as persuasive through the gradual (on the scale of months and years) numbing of critical appraisal of the media being consumed.

  This has more- and less-pronounced areas. In the US (which is geographically close to me and which has an outsize proportion on my own country's culture), Fox News is an excellent example of how TV can erode critical thinking.
- Smartphones arguably reproduce and amplify this problem, and tack on others: they make it increasingly easy to dissociate from daily life, and make it easier to continue consuming content from actors increasingly interested in steering conversations in one direction or another (on the most benign end, it's influencers trying to get you to buy things, which obviously has negative economic impacts on an individual scale; on the more overtly harmful end, they serve as a hardware channel for less-regulated or unregulated extreme and hateful content).

  Just like with TV, smartphones have clear benefits and utility in daily life. They aren't abjectly bad inventions, but they have a serious societal toll, and it's difficult to ignore that.
- In aviation, the first generation of (relatively modern) automation did lead to a high number of accidents and loss of life. American Airlines flight 965, in 1995, is a well-studied case of an over-reliance on flight automation before it was widely understood among pilots what the limits of these early-modern incarnations of autoflight were.

  In the wake of that accident, many aviation regulators instituted or began requiring that manufacturers and airlines formalize training and operational procedures that protect thoroughly against this sort of cognitive gap.
I think that last example (and many aviation accidents) are an interesting example to study in the context of software. Aviation's extremely and conspicuously responsive to accidents, often requiring procedural and hardware changes as a result of these. They can be as simple as a software patch, or as complex as the redesign of a component because a human factors analysis found that it could be confusing under stress.

In software, we like to think that we're a serious industry, sometimes. We spent much of the 2010s going in what I found to be a good direction: the development of IaC, the popularization and standardization of tools like Git, registries for vulnerabilities like the NVD, and even the development of languages like Rust which address historical technical shortfalls of high-performance, low-level languages like C; but we always fell short, industry-wide, on matching these toolchain upgrades with technically-rigorous procedures.

For every borrow checker, there's vibe coding.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a product guy on the team who was in a deeply not technical role before AI who is trying to do the “hey Claude, read this Jira ticket, implement” thing. It doesn’t work for the vast majority of tickets he attempts because he doesn’t have the necessary understanding to even start thinking about if the solution that the autocomplete generates is even remotely workable. And that’s with fancy dev loops and whatno…

Not everyone has this, but I always felt that a significant percentage of the value I bring is in immediately recognizing what you shouldn’t do . I have a hard enough time explaining why “yet another bespoke application on some unmanaged azure resources” is a bad idea when they have more reasonable alternatives at hand. Now these goofs can (very nearly) press a button and do it anyway, with no comprehension of the co…

This lands. Llms are bad precisely at following what not to do. They work best off of positive constraints.

I have a design principles + tech preferences doc I force llms "lint" their approach against. It's not perfect but it helps. I call it a bias field, pushes them toward hopefully the happy and harmonious (with the rest of the system) paths. Obviously this is only partial and imperfect enforcement, but if it's applied to everything consistently it naturally encodes some self-consistency and harmony.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#234
Yes, but it's also building other skills. There's no friction to learning something new anymore, and that's really quite amazing.

E.g. I've gotten pretty good at git thanks to AI because it forced me into more complex workflows. I still can't remember the commands but I really grok the concepts and terminology on a far deeper level than before, where I made a conscious effort to stay on the happy path lest I get into some odd state I don't understand. Pretty sure those "odd states" would seem quite clear to me now.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#235

Most computer science programs don't teach "coding" though. There is pretty heavy emphasis on datastructures, algorithms, and system design. I don't think AI atrophies those skills / knowledge as much as the coding language and I think in many cases actually improves them, especially if you are reading the code that is produced and at least understanding the flow of it. I agree that AI reliance is hurting engineer's…

> especially if you are reading the code that is produced and at least understanding the flow of it. This is the key point. Should we stay vigilant and review all the code, ensuring we have a decept grasp of what it does. Or just green light everything and treat the code itself as a black box. I would hope we do the former, but many are pushing for the latter.

The issue with this in practice is that the rate at which code is produced is often substantially higher than what any human reviewer is capable of processing mentally.

Example from my workplace: pull requests that were already too long before LLMs by a few hundred or a couple of thousand lines are now several thousand lines longer and they get opened much more frequently. The primary source of these PRs is a well-respected senior team member with a ton more experience than everyone else by a measure of decades so nobody dares tell him to stop. Other team members aren’t far behind in the PR opening rate and admittedly I am one of them, but I try to mitigate the issue by doing multiple LLM reviews and anticipating when it’s ok to just approve it myself (have never had an issue in making this judgement thankfully). Part of this IMO is almost certainly because there’s now peer-pressure within the team to churn out a ton more code and that’s adding to the already clear message from leadership that we need to leverage AI to deliver things at unprecedented levels.

My point is that it’s not just that some people are pushing for greenlighting everything without due diligence, it’s also that they’re pushing others to toward that outcome with their extreme AI enthusiasm which they don’t see the ramifications of or just don’t care.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#236
Hobbyist programming expertise unaffected

Genuine curiosity in learning how stuff works, not necessarily for financial gain, e.g., from a salary or using web to deliver ads

No real "pressure" for hobbyist to use "AI"

IMO as end user, some of the best software available was originally written by a single unpaid author, not salaried teams

Some of the worst software ever written was produced by overpaid teams

Hobbyists may use relatively old, handwritten code to learn from

That's not necessarily bad. Software quality has declined over time

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#237
I fall into the category of senior engineers who benefit from LLMs for all the reasons mentioned in this post. I find it's possible to agree completely with sentiments like this and still feel as if this is all written in the sand below the high tide line, and ten years from now nobody will care about this.

Horsemanship and sailing were both specialized skills of high value to society, and now they're not. But in each case there was probably a liminal period, when being an accomplished horseman or sailor was still valuable, even as motors were taking over. Eventually that period ended, as the new generations without those skills found ways to get by with cars and motorboats.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#238

I've, more than once, gone long spans of time doing purely management and architecture level work, then returned to programming. A little rusty? Sure. But I never forgot how to program or lost the skills that actually matter. Seems mostly like a non-issue for people already in the field. The real issue will be with people that never learn it in the first place. And even that isn't so bad, learning programming isn't s…

> It took me less than 6 months from no knowledge to my first job.

I agreed with you up until this sentence. Entry-level devs with 6 months of require an enormous amount of time and mentoring until they're able to really perform well. I think the greater concern being expressed is not will people be able to type syntactically correct code?, it's will people be able to write software well?.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#239
post #71
post #55

So far I think I have learned far more from LLMs than I've lost to them. I forget some syntax, definitely. But I now reach for a much wider range of tools that I have become familiar with because of LLMs. So, partly agree, partly disagree.

Yeah, I have to say some of this deskilling argument sounds like Socrates complaining about the invention of writing ruining people's ability to truly own the text. I really don't mourn my lost assembly skills or my lost C skills. And I'm not missing the details of whatever web framework du jour my Claude is vibing for me on my extremely useful dataviz internal tools; and I have learned how to rein the agents in to n…

There is an argument to be made though that writing stuff down yourself results in better retention than simply reading the same material. People still write by hand and take notes. And they still process ideas and thoughts verbally. Doing so is often more effective than going in circles with a chatbot.

Re: Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

#240
post #204

A list of things, that were supposed to lead to our intellectual demise: - Writing (starting from Platos Phaedrus) - Printed books - Photography - Typewriters, keyboards - Telephones - Recorded music - Television - Wikipedia - GPS navigation - Smartphones - Automation in aviation, medicine, industries

If current trends are anything to go by, who's to say that these aren't stepping stones towards it?

Dear lord
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