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Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

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Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#61

Post by thinkcontext »

xienze wrote: post #55
phyalow wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The caveats to your comment are in my opinion as follows: Bundibugyo the current strain has not previously been responsible for material outbreaks, as such it has therefore received significantly less scientific attention. Additionally Ebola (Zaire) has previously been shown to be potentially spread via aerosols. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep00811 , the CDC and associated institutions resolutely claim this is…

> It is very possible some sorts of lockdowns are implemented. What drives me nuts, and the same thing happened with Covid, is all the things you mentioned are true and yet western countries don't even entertain the possibility of preemptively denying travel from these countries until things get under control. I think the US, Europe, etc. will manage to survive without travel from the DRC et al for an extended period…

The US has travel restrictions, therefore you are incorrect that "western countries don't even entertain the possibility of preemptively denying travel from these countries until things get under control"

https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/returning-travel...

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#62

Post by gosub100 »

justin66 wrote: post #40
alex43578 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. There's a reason why customs is so strict about the sloppy importation of food: it's host to diseases and pests, capable of causing ridiculous damage because someone has to have that "taste of home".

It’s the fact or otherwise of someone having carried raw meat in their luggage that I’m questioning, not the fact of customs officials caring about food moving across international borders. I’ve had fruit confiscated at a border, but meat in luggage seems like… a different paradigm.

If you packed it with an ice pack and dry ice to keep that pack cool, it could remain about frozen for the flight.

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#63

Post by xienze »

thinkcontext wrote: post #61
xienze wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is very possible some sorts of lockdowns are implemented. What drives me nuts, and the same thing happened with Covid, is all the things you mentioned are true and yet western countries don't even entertain the possibility of preemptively denying travel from these countries until things get under control. I think the US, Europe, etc. will manage to survive without travel from the DRC et al for an extended period…

The US has travel restrictions, therefore you are incorrect that "western countries don't even entertain the possibility of preemptively denying travel from these countries until things get under control" https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/returning-travel...

OK, guess I missed that one. Score a point for mean ol' Trump I guess.

But, you're ignoring that it's also not exactly a blanket ban on travel from the DRC, just "within the last 21 days", which... does that make a meaningful difference? And, where are the other western countries doing the same? Kinda my point. If it's done at all, it's a day late and a dollar short.

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#64

Post by [deleted] »

contubernio wrote: post #26
hn_submit wrote: post #22

I chide the people in Africa for not following up on best health practices as far as Ebola victims are concerned. It seems there's a ritualistic need for people in Africa to touch and kiss the deceased before they're buried. This is a bad idea as far as Ebola is concerned. There've even been cases where family members attacked UN hospitals to remove their loved ones remains, perpetuating the spread of the disease. A…

People on the street, so to speak, don't know better even in advanced nations with strong educational systems. Look how much rejection of vaccination there is in spite of "knowing better". In many African nations there is very reasonable suspicion of European authorities - as there is a long history of abuse and degradation that has moreover been weaponized politically kn the post colonial era. The solution is trustw…

[deleted]

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#65

Post by thinkcontext »

inference-god wrote: post #24

I get the feeling the reason this is out of control is the political climate, at one point in time, a good US president or EU council would've sent aid, doctors, equipment, etc to help tackle this, now everyone is so broke (allegedly) and angry that it's just political suicide to say you're sending money to help "foreigners" in Africa. The face of rich people and philanthropy has changed too. The billionaires (and ne…

For those that don't recall or weren't around the Obama administration send thousands of medical and military to assist with the 2013-2016 outbreak. A big part of what they did was construct medical wards, but they helped with treatment, PPE, testing infrastructure, etc.

That outbreak had 11K dead and things were on the verge of being a lot worse. There were beginning to be neighborhood level lockdowns to prevent spread and civil unrest. Its difficult to play what-if games but it certainly was a very serious situation.

From what I've heard this outbreak is spreading faster than that one at the same stage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_African_Ebola_epidemic

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#66

Post by paimapi »

gucci-on-fleek wrote: post #29
biorach wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one worth listening to is claiming that there will be a COVID-style pandemic. The concern here is the very high mortality rate. Granted the transmission rate is low, but in countries where facilities and health-care workers are scarce this disease is still capable of being a real problem.

> No one worth listening to is claiming that there will be a COVID-style pandemic. When I first posted this, all 4 top-level comments were dead, and half of them suggested that this Ebola outbreak would be similar to COVID-19. I agree that they're probably not worth listening to, but I still think that it's worth refuting them, since the media is generally not doing a great job explaining how Ebola is different from…

this is more of a curiosity and not pushback but are there mechanistic reasons why viral mutations are subjected to tradeoffs in terms of lethality vs infectiousness? is it that the more lethal it is, the earlier it is that people become symptomatic (and thus are far more likely to isolate and/or be immobile)?

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#67

Post by paimapi »

colingauvin wrote: post #52
fakedang wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't Ebola kill faster than transmission can be maximized? I believe Nipah in Asia also faces the same "issue".

In general the more severe a virus the less likely it is to spread into a pandemic. This is for a couple reasons: 1) really sick people are less likely to go spread it, 2) really sick people are easier to identify and isolate and 3) the time between virus shedding and death is very small. There are, of course, some exceptions (long incubation periods where you can shed virus but are totally asymptomatic) but those ar…

>Big deadly pandemics (black plague level) are usually bacteria.

that's not really true, is it? I'm thinking small pox and influenza are big ones with well-studied pandemics that had fairly high mortality rates

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#68

Post by AnimalMuppet »

xienze wrote: post #63
thinkcontext wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has travel restrictions, therefore you are incorrect that "western countries don't even entertain the possibility of preemptively denying travel from these countries until things get under control" https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/returning-travel...

OK, guess I missed that one. Score a point for mean ol' Trump I guess. But, you're ignoring that it's also not exactly a blanket ban on travel from the DRC, just "within the last 21 days", which... does that make a meaningful difference? And, where are the other western countries doing the same? Kinda my point. If it's done at all, it's a day late and a dollar short.

I believe that Ebola will kill you a lot faster than 21 days. It's not going to be latent in you for that long.

[Edit: Arodex notes that it can remain dormant for years (at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49418182). So, yes, someone could bring it back. It probably wouldn't be an active infection, though. But what is the alternative? Nobody who ever visits the DRC can enter the US ever again? That seems like overkill.]

Re: Over 5,200 Ebola cases recorded in Congo

#69

Post by MarkusQ »

paimapi wrote: post #66
gucci-on-fleek wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No one worth listening to is claiming that there will be a COVID-style pandemic. When I first posted this, all 4 top-level comments were dead, and half of them suggested that this Ebola outbreak would be similar to COVID-19. I agree that they're probably not worth listening to, but I still think that it's worth refuting them, since the media is generally not doing a great job explaining how Ebola is different from…

this is more of a curiosity and not pushback but are there mechanistic reasons why viral mutations are subjected to tradeoffs in terms of lethality vs infectiousness? is it that the more lethal it is, the earlier it is that people become symptomatic (and thus are far more likely to isolate and/or be immobile)?

The faster you kill your host, the less time you have to infect new hosts. Sure, you can loot the host to make a lot of new viruses, but when the host dies, they die too. Ideally, a virus "wants" to make the host live a long, gregarious life, touring the world and kissing babies. But that takes energy away from making more viral payload, so yeah, it's a tradeoff.
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