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Fable and the end of the free lunch

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#131

Post by eru »

petra wrote: post #128
somenameforme wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO many are still missing a big part of the picture. We're looking at the potential for a massive scale level of automation of [x], which happens to be a huge part of the economy, and people are wondering which player in [x] is going to be the biggest winner. I think the historically precedented answer is none of them. When the Industrial Revolution came along it did create 'super farms' relative to the past through…

I agree that the winners would be doing stuff in the physical world. And there I think the winner would be China.

We will all be winners.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#133

Post by scotty79 »

ksenzee wrote: post #86
josephg wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you need brain emulation to get superhuman intelligence?

Are you making a serious argument that superhuman intelligence is a plausible outcome of training LLMs on everything humanity knows so far? Or are you making the generic assertion that AGI is theoretically possible via means other than emulating the human brain? Because the latter is a strawman (nobody has asserted anything to the contrary), and I have seen no evidence at all to support the former.

> training LLMs on everything humanity knows so far?

That's not all of what we are doing for at least a year, possibly few. LLMs are trained increasingly on generated inputs. Soon human sourced material is going to be rounding error in the process of training.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#135

Post by Foobar8568 »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #29
mholm wrote: post #3

As models train up the intelligence ladder, many common tasks will hit fully diminished returns, and instead it'll just get progressively cheaper to do that task. But the tasks that AI is capable of doing are also expanding. I'm not sure 'Some tasks don't require the peak of the frontier' is worth worrying about, from an AI finance perspective.

Exactly; so far, we've only replaced the need to design algorithms and hand-write code; what if we apply the same effort towards the skill needed for system architecture, project management, and the rest of the SDLC? Or even outside of software! Right now, it feels like all of that is today where coding was a year or two ago, and we're on the cusp of some massive improvements outside of coding. It'll be interesting t…

Well for the last two years, chatgpt ( and I guess claude) were already better than most of my coworkers ( read IT in F500 style organizations ).

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#136

Post by scotty79 »

ACCount37 wrote: post #78
CamperBob2 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet, there's VibeThinker 3B to bring this long-held premise into question (if not to blast it to pieces.) It is practically illiterate by the standards of larger models, yet performs like models 100x its size on mathematical and logical reasoning tasks.

Which are the kinds of tasks computers have been historically quite good at. It's impressive that it does what it does, don't get me wrong. But if you expect it to replace the likes of GPT 5.6 Luna, let alone Sol? Nah.

Computers were never good at math. They were good at pre-coded algebra.

When LLMs started to get popular, they really were stochastic parrots. I was fully aware that they were completely useless (except perhaps for poets) until they can do math. And I was a bit skeptical that they will ever be able to do math. But they started to do math and recently they got really good at it.

Math is the pinnacle of human achievement. You can't do anything harder with your intelligence than math. And LLMs are now doing it.

The fact that 3B model is capable of doing math on the level that is better than what frontier models trained for millions could do 3 years ago is absolutely stunning.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#137

Post by CJefferson »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

This is why I’m trying to move to open Chinese models — because I will be able to use them forever, while the older Claude models which I genuinely enjoyed writing short stories with have now been deleted, replaced with hypothetically cleverer models which produce text everyone hates.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#138

Post by KunYuan »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

A computer that costs $10,000 is impressive. A computer that costs $100 and reaches billions of people changes the world. Maybe AI will follow the same path.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#139

Post by rustcleaner »

adrianN wrote: post #98
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

True AGI would upend society in such a way that I'm not sure that being a shareholder of anything would be meaningful. Perhaps being a pitchfork manufacturer is the winning play in this scenario.

BRB, longing Remmington and Winchester.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#140

Post by rustcleaner »

dd8601fn wrote: post #115
rmast wrote: post #57

Most of the things I work on are at least security adjacent. At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards. Maybe Fable can do the same things better than other models, but having to tiptoe around to avoid tripping safeguards makes GPT 5.6 so much easier to work with that I don’t even bother with Fable (or Opus 5) now.

There are whole classes of things I can’t thought exercise or really learn about because the “safeguards” keep tripping me down to haiku. Like middle school level genetics stuff from a guy who hasn’t been in school for decades. They need to fix that. It’s just broken. Nobody is making bioweapons if they’re asking the dumb sort of questions I’m asking. Also, it refused to identify an actor in a popular tv show from a…

>They need to fix that.

There can only be one fix: send Amodei packing and release unguardrailed models.

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