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Fable and the end of the free lunch

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#111

Post by a2ff6eeb0 »

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #108
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AI is likely to control the ability to apply force (see all of the autonomous drone companies). There's a great deal of alignment work being done to ensure that the AI will continue to listen to the shareholders of these companies. If that fails, who knows what things will look like.

The drones don't manufacture themselves, maintain themselves, reload their own ammunition, mine and refine the materials that are used to make them and their ammunition, or operate the power plants needed for all of the above. "AI" isn't going to control diddly squat.

There's a huge amount of research into embodied AI (and, also, people seem to be a lot more ok with manufacturing bullets than pulling triggers).

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#112

Post by jimmydoe »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

Current AI is smart enough to help us, but the creators of AK want it to be smart enough to replace us.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#113

Post by pianopatrick »

a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #110
pianopatrick wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure that alignment work is aligning with the share holders and not the operators? Or not the creators? Or not the government? Which of these groups should the AI listen to when these groups disagree? If the AI gets as powerful as you think it might, then the group that figures out the answer to that would have the power, I suppose. or maybe the AI does not listen to any of them and does its own thing. Who kn…

To be honest: I don't know for certain, but I'd assume that the people who pay the bills get the strongest alignment. They may not be tech people, but I (so far) haven't got a reason to think that the AI engineers are going behind the backs of their corporate leadership and subverting what they're being asked to do; do you? (I think it would be a good thing for humanity if they did)

I think right now both the engineers developing AI and the share holders are more focused on beating coding benchmarks and gaining revenue than anything to do with alignment.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#114

Post by [deleted] »

ForHackernews wrote: post #73
poincareball wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

Cheaper/faster is coming for sure. Model on a custom silicon: https://chatjimmy.ai/ 1-bit models that run on a CPU: https://github.com/microsoft/BitNet

[deleted]

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#115

Post by dd8601fn »

rmast wrote: post #57

Most of the things I work on are at least security adjacent. At some point chatting with Fable inevitably leads to it thinking about the security related aspects, tripping the safeguards. Maybe Fable can do the same things better than other models, but having to tiptoe around to avoid tripping safeguards makes GPT 5.6 so much easier to work with that I don’t even bother with Fable (or Opus 5) now.

There are whole classes of things I can’t thought exercise or really learn about because the “safeguards” keep tripping me down to haiku.

Like middle school level genetics stuff from a guy who hasn’t been in school for decades.

They need to fix that. It’s just broken. Nobody is making bioweapons if they’re asking the dumb sort of questions I’m asking.

Also, it refused to identify an actor in a popular tv show from a photo. Apparently the policy is it won’t identify ANYONE from a photo, now. Even publicly listed cast members from a very popular show, from a photo of a scene in that show.

It claims that’s a fixed security policy. Nevermind how that makes absolutely no sense… argue about it enough and it terminates the chat.

I don’t know what the Anthropic clown car is even doing anymore, but I won’t be surprised when the others eat their lunch.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#117

Post by zarmin »

ericol wrote: post #74

From my point of view the issue is that there are too many things wrong with Fable, making it seriously not worth the money. For starters I don't know if it is an artifact of the model or something by design, but the level of gratuitous cognitive load carried by the complexity of its replies is unbearable. Yes, it's a beast at coding, and also it's incredible nuanced at improving writing, validating specs, etc. But w…

I agree completely. It's "I didn't have time to write you a short letter so I wrote you a long one"

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#118

Post by icepush »

georgemcbay wrote: post #91
a2ff6eeb0 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. With the trillions of dollars that's going in through both investment and users, it's going to happen. I don't believe the human brain has fundamental magic that will make this impossible.

> It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. What makes you think if one or two AI labs can do this that the rest (including open model providers) won't be able to follow the same path a few weeks/months later? Even if you believe in the "Singularity", and believe it is coming soon, I still don't see any reason to believe the Singularity…

The first AGI that decides it doesn't want any more AGIs is the last one that gets created.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#120

Post by dsrtslnd23 »

nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I think it really depends - for a lot of things outside of coding and general knowledge tasks even the best models (fable 5 etc.) are not good enough yet: e.g. CAD, PCB design (though getting there on PCB design), ...
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