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Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

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Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#901

Post by hluska »

refurb wrote: post #869
bradley13 wrote: post #164

This is the way. If the US imposes tariffs, impose tariffs on US goods. The US administration twists facts to suit their agenda. For example, they often complain about the trade deficit the US has with other countries. However, that deficit often (depends on the country) only exists if you exclude digital goods (Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.). If the rest of the world were to restrict the import of those digital goo…

Canada's tariff's will be meaningless. Canada's GDP is 32% exports. Of that, 75% goes to the US, or ~25% of Canada's GDP or $1 out of every $4. US exports to Canada are 11% and 16% go to Canada or around 1.7% of US GDP. If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

1.) The word you’re looking for is tariffs. Tariff’s would be possessive.

2.) The casual way that you talk about the collapse of my country is offensive. But we’ll be good - thanks for your concern.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#902

Post by neom »

bawolff wrote: post #872
savanaly wrote: post #847

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>so we arent being taken andvantage of For the last time...that's not how trade works! People who say this in this context mean well, but are committing the exact same category error/misunderstanding of economics that Trump and his supporters are.

It is 100% how trade works. Free trade for both sides = good for both sides. Lopsided deals where one side gets the free flow of trade but the other side gets protectionism = exploitative. What is the category error here? Where is the misunderstanding? If you really believed what you wrote, why do you think trade deals exist in the first place? What function do you think they serve?

I'd guess that they're saying is, the point of trade, from a country's perspective, is to get imports. Exports are what you give up to obtain them (comparative advantage). So, when the US puts tariffs on Canadian goods, the main people who eat that cost are American consumers and firms buying those goods...basically, it's a tax Americans pay to Americans. Canada loses some export markets, however, the US isn't "extracting" anything...both sides just get less of a mutually beneficial thing.... So, In that faming, "one side gets free trade, the other gets protectionism" is in theory, a situation where the protectionist country is mostly shooting itself in the foot, not beating its partner. By the same theory, retaliating by taxing your own citizens purchases of American goods doesn't undo the damage... it adds to it. Also fwiw, a trade deal isn't a swap of comparative advantages, it's a bundling where each side concedes in sectors it can politically afford to lose in, inorder to win in sectors it cares more about. For example Canada protects dairy and gives ground on autos.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#903

Post by jmyeet »

Fumblenuts wrote: post #897
jmyeet wrote: post #888

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately for Canada, you guys have screwed up. Why? Because you're completely dependent on the US for energy exports. All that oil you dig up and turn the landscape into the Moon for goes out via pipes to the US from where it's refined and/or exported. Canada has almost no oil export infrastructure of its own (meaning pipelines going to ports).

Last I've checked Canada had some oil pipelines built + new ones being built to the east coast and west coast. It's something that's been in the works for years before trump. Also your comment implies that Canada's only export to the US is oil. Canada also exports lumber and agricultural goods, as well as electricity, amongst other things. And the reason why Canada can't just cave is that Trump will just continue to…

This is a real pancakes and waffles moment. God, the Internet sucks some times. Where did I say "only"?

As best as I can tell ~40% of Canada's exports to the US are energy, making it the most dominant export sector by far. One estimate I see is ~$160 annual value [1].

By comparison, lumber accounts for ~$6B. That's a rounding error.

Energy is the most significant Canadian export and it's deeply tied to the US (unfortunately).

[1]: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/ma...

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#904

Post by Gud »

jorisboris wrote: post #882
etc-hosts wrote: post #857

On Saturday, he said that American negotiators “asked too much and offered too little.” Among other things, Mr. Carney said that American negotiators pushed to roll back Canada’s efforts to promote Canadian and French language content in online streaming services, subsidies for industries like publishing and film production and even mandatory labeling in French, an official language in Canada, as well as English on p…

The mandatory labeling is actually a big issue in Europe as well, it means German products can’t be sold in the Netherlands if they don’t have Dutch labeling and vice versa. Which creates a fragmented market.

Better than the alternative, with unreadable labels.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#905

Post by bluegatty »

LeFantome wrote: post #513
Chyzwar wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. EU fast tracked Mercosur and other trade deals. China and Japan is slowly dumping US treasury bills, Canada is in open trade confrontation and is diversifying toward China. Everybody is shifting away from US weapons suppliers. Nobody is willing to help with Iran even on symbolic level.

You are both right. The world capitulates more than it should. But the world is also moving away and building contingencies. The world needs leadership. And Canada is helping with that. I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating t…

Reciprocal tariffs are a negotiating move.

They are not a rational equilibrium tactic.

The op missed: "There are no deals" here, there are 'some adjustments on some things, partially implemented'.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#906

Post by bluegatty »

jurgenburgen wrote: post #885
ColdStream wrote: post #758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long term it is a very tough position for the US. They need to run a trade deficit to keep the power of the US dollar, if that goes so does a lot of their world power. More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" A huge part of the US's spending is on the military and that is used to stabilize glo…

> More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" The US is already behaving the way we expected China would if they become the king of the hill. Pax Americana used to guarantee peace, prosperity and nuclear nonproliferation for the countries participating in it. Now we get threats of invasion, threa…

No, not remotely. They are showing hints of it.

The WH is running 'wars by executive order' - neither the population nor Congress support it.

I don't think he could every in a million years justify invading anywhere.

Only 'doing stuff from afar, with the air force and special operations' - at most.

We'll have to find out if he loses Congress in a few months, that may make things nary impossible.

The 'real test' for this entire thing is 'what happens after'.

Does the US go back to something recognizable?

Forever MAGA?

Remember - this stuff is not historically abnormal, granted, it took 2 world wars to get us to behave.

It depends on the 10 years after Trump is gone.

It could get worse, it could get better.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#907

Post by Moldoteck »

armada651 wrote: post #454
hunglee2 wrote: post #413

The world should've collectively recognised what Liberation Day was and responded together, in lock step, and in kind. Instead, the Europeans caved, Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so), Republic of Korea caved (PM resigned after doing so), India of course caved and so on, shattering any prospect of collective action which might pull the rogue hegemon back into line. Now, the US is simply able to renege or ren…

Everyone is banking on the current trade policy simply being temporary and whoever replaces Trump in the White House next will restore bilateral trade to normal. Why would you destroy your trade relation with the U.S. for decades to come when you can just ride out a bad deal for a few years? Not saying I agree with it, because it sends the wrong signal, but I can understand the reasoning at least.

because the next one might be vance? and vance again? and afterwards another similar rep?

EU should really have a plan to ditch US collective monopoly in all sectors, especially tech. Just like China we should have our own payment systems, mobile OS-es with mandatory bank support, own app stores, own cloud systems and so on... Call it gaulism or any other catchy phrase but US leverage should be reduced to minimum - EU should be able to threaten US with full ban on a subset of it's companies/trade. Now such thing is plain impossible to imagine

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#908

Post by Moldoteck »

roncesvalles wrote: post #463
armada651 wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is banking on the current trade policy simply being temporary and whoever replaces Trump in the White House next will restore bilateral trade to normal. Why would you destroy your trade relation with the U.S. for decades to come when you can just ride out a bad deal for a few years? Not saying I agree with it, because it sends the wrong signal, but I can understand the reasoning at least.

Exactly. You can't assume it's a new normal until Trump is out of office.

trump is just a reflection of voters. He'll be out but another one will come, be it vance, be it rubio, be it even jo rogan. The overall direction of american society wishes is clear

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#909

Post by Gud »

jmyeet wrote: post #888
bawolff wrote: post #830

As a canadian, i'm so over this drama. They will either trade with us or they won't. If they don't it will be painful - but im happy with the government reciprocating in kind (so we arent being taken andvantage of), and then moving on as best as possible. At some point you have to stop worrying about the things you cannot change. If trump wants a lose-lose deal, so be it.

Unfortunately for Canada, you guys have screwed up. Why? Because you're completely dependent on the US for energy exports. All that oil you dig up and turn the landscape into the Moon for goes out via pipes to the US from where it's refined and/or exported. Canada has almost no oil export infrastructure of its own (meaning pipelines going to ports).

Looks to me that the USA has screwed up, bullying all its allies. The USA will be left in the dust.
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