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Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

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Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#881

Post by traderbalance »

hunglee2 wrote: post #413

The world should've collectively recognised what Liberation Day was and responded together, in lock step, and in kind. Instead, the Europeans caved, Japanese caved (PM resigned after doing so), Republic of Korea caved (PM resigned after doing so), India of course caved and so on, shattering any prospect of collective action which might pull the rogue hegemon back into line. Now, the US is simply able to renege or ren…

India has stood up the most to the US even in the face of >50% sanctions for buying Russian energy. The fact that there is no trade deal between the India & US as we speak is testament to this.

Your characterization that India has caved is factually incorrect and seems to be driven either by ignorance or by mischievous intent.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#882

Post by jorisboris »

etc-hosts wrote: post #857

On Saturday, he said that American negotiators “asked too much and offered too little.” Among other things, Mr. Carney said that American negotiators pushed to roll back Canada’s efforts to promote Canadian and French language content in online streaming services, subsidies for industries like publishing and film production and even mandatory labeling in French, an official language in Canada, as well as English on p…

The mandatory labeling is actually a big issue in Europe as well, it means German products can’t be sold in the Netherlands if they don’t have Dutch labeling and vice versa. Which creates a fragmented market.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#883

Post by frm88 »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #864
toomuchtodo wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They still can of course, all they need to do is collectively start selling off their US treasuries. The US is at a highly vulnerable and precarious point with their potential bond market debt spiral situation, and this is a point of leverage that can be exploited to encourage improved behavior from a bully. This capital can then be reallocated into domestic investment to continue to decouple from the US. Very simila…

People don't invest in the US from Europe because they love the US, but rather because investments in Europe are shitty.

Alphabet is issuing Euro bonds in big tranches. Euro, not dollar. They diversify away from the dollar: https://www.reuters.com/business/alphabet-taps-euro-bond-mar...

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#884

Post by BeetleB »

Merad wrote: post #719
goatlover wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hope the voters remember this for the next couple election cycles.

I'm not sure how old you are, but shortly after Obama took office in 2009 there was quite a bit of reporting claiming that the Bush administration had been so disastrous and young people had been so thoroughly poisoned by Republican policies, that it would likely be a generation before the Republicans had the chance to win the presidency again. Remember, Bush left office in the depths of the Great Recession. Instead,…

I don't know how old you are, but the MAGA movement is an offshoot of the Tea Party movement which, although begun under Bush, became massively popular under Obama.

Sure, lots of people were not happy with Bush dragging the country into two wars, but most Republicans remained Republicans, and the angst (based on facts or otherwise) against Obama is what made the Tea Party Movement so big.

(Of course, there was the whole social media thing that became huge around the same time, but the design of social media doesn't favor one side over another...)

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#885

Post by jurgenburgen »

ColdStream wrote: post #758
thisisit wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This ignores two facts. One, US has been the largest buyer of imported goods. As much as people think turning away is difficult and needs planning. Two, turning away requires time and planning. Supply chain isn't built in one day. People need time for that. In the short term - like next 3-4 years - it is going to look like countries caved. But in the long term Liberation Day will be remembered as one of the days whic…

Long term it is a very tough position for the US. They need to run a trade deficit to keep the power of the US dollar, if that goes so does a lot of their world power. More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" A huge part of the US's spending is on the military and that is used to stabilize glo…

> More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?"

The US is already behaving the way we expected China would if they become the king of the hill.

Pax Americana used to guarantee peace, prosperity and nuclear nonproliferation for the countries participating in it. Now we get threats of invasion, threats of being left to fend for our selves, cozying up to a country that is literally trying to conquer our neighbors.

I don’t think it’s anymore a question of _if_, the old world is gone and not coming back.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#886

Post by kylehotchkiss »

cdrnsf wrote: post #586

Everything the current US administration has done has been an unmitigated disaster. Tariffs are taxes. Manufacturing is still declining, not returning and a man who could not run casinos successfully is not going to change that. His economic and foreign policy are dictated entirely based on who flatters him the most. Add to that continued environmental damage, domestic policy dictated by a regressive religious minori…

Today in manufacturing: I saw one time use mouthwashes at target (ugh). Made in china. We can’t make overpriced pouches or mouthwash here

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#887

Post by bikezen »

LeFantome wrote: post #513
Chyzwar wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That not how politics works. It is much slower and hidden process. EU fast tracked Mercosur and other trade deals. China and Japan is slowly dumping US treasury bills, Canada is in open trade confrontation and is diversifying toward China. Everybody is shifting away from US weapons suppliers. Nobody is willing to help with Iran even on symbolic level.

You are both right. The world capitulates more than it should. But the world is also moving away and building contingencies. The world needs leadership. And Canada is helping with that. I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating t…

> I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will.

Disagree, the timing is right before important upcoming midterms, and Canada can chose to target potential swing states with the direct results of what happens when you vote republican.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#888

Post by jmyeet »

bawolff wrote: post #830

As a canadian, i'm so over this drama. They will either trade with us or they won't. If they don't it will be painful - but im happy with the government reciprocating in kind (so we arent being taken andvantage of), and then moving on as best as possible. At some point you have to stop worrying about the things you cannot change. If trump wants a lose-lose deal, so be it.

Unfortunately for Canada, you guys have screwed up. Why? Because you're completely dependent on the US for energy exports. All that oil you dig up and turn the landscape into the Moon for goes out via pipes to the US from where it's refined and/or exported. Canada has almost no oil export infrastructure of its own (meaning pipelines going to ports).

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#889

Post by spiderfarmer »

bikezen wrote: post #887
LeFantome wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are both right. The world capitulates more than it should. But the world is also moving away and building contingencies. The world needs leadership. And Canada is helping with that. I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. The answer is in shifting trade away from the US and isolating t…

> I do not think that reciprocal tariffs are actually the answer though. They hurt both sides and the US is not a rational enough actor to respond like you hope they will. Disagree, the timing is right before important upcoming midterms, and Canada can chose to target potential swing states with the direct results of what happens when you vote republican.

I’m convinced republicans don’t have the mental capacity to reason.

Re: Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down

#890

Post by bruce511 »

refurb wrote: post #869
bradley13 wrote: post #164

This is the way. If the US imposes tariffs, impose tariffs on US goods. The US administration twists facts to suit their agenda. For example, they often complain about the trade deficit the US has with other countries. However, that deficit often (depends on the country) only exists if you exclude digital goods (Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.). If the rest of the world were to restrict the import of those digital goo…

Canada's tariff's will be meaningless. Canada's GDP is 32% exports. Of that, 75% goes to the US, or ~25% of Canada's GDP or $1 out of every $4. US exports to Canada are 11% and 16% go to Canada or around 1.7% of US GDP. If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

I think there's a notion that the imposition of tarifs will ultimately affect the amount the country imports. However that stick only kinda-sorta works.

As a reference - in the country I live in, exports to the US rose in the year after "liberation day". Because of 2 things; Americans like to buy stuff and tarifs imposed on everyone doesn't cause importers to source elsewhere - it's just business as usual.

Take for example something as mundane as coffee. Do tarifs mean Americans drink less? (perhaps not). Do they grow more locally (well, no, not least because of ramp-up time to new production.) Tarifs are just a local tax on consumerism.

So take your example above. 25% of the Canadian GDP goes to the US. The question then becomes how much of that is going to be sourced elsewhere instead? And can Canada find an alternative market to make up the difference?

About 30% (of that 25% above) is oil & gas etc. That's easilly sellable on the global market. Not that they'll need to, the US customer will simply pay more. The next 21% is car parts, machinery etc. US Auto makers are already dependent on external parts - maybe they can get them from somewhere else? Somewhere without already higher tarifs?

Other big chuncks are Consumer, Forestry and Industrial goos (15%), Metas (12%) and agriculture (10%). None of these are easily sourced (cheaper) elsewhere.

In other words, tarifs make for good headlines. And there will inevitably be some winners and losers. But the effect on Canada's GDP will be minor. I'm not even sure that Canada needs to reciprocate - Canadian consumers are very good at simply not buying American products. No govt can force the Canadian people to buy Budwizer....

>> If both countries decide to start ramping up tariffs, one of them is going to collapse and one won't even notice a difference.

I agree, but probably not the same way you think. It's US suppliers who depend on exports that very much will notice. American products are very expensive, and Canada is one of the few markets where they are viable. That's why DJT is so upset with alcohol bans in Canada. There are lots of markets for Canadian goods. And ultimately this whole process is encouraging Canadian producers to explore some of those markets, which in the long run is good for Canada.

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